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评价航天测控方案中的测控任务可靠性需要高效的方法,解析法和直接仿真都不能满足该要求。在介绍测控任务模型及其可靠性直接仿真法的基础上,基于不交化最小割集设计了实现近似零方差重要抽样的方法,并给出不交化最小割集的获取算法。通过案例分析,得出不交化最小割集最大获取数量越大,仿真收敛性越好,但相应地耗时也越多的结论。因此,实际应用中,需要在不交化最小割集获取数量与仿真时间二者间进行权衡。 相似文献
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This paper investigates Bayesian methods for aerospace system reliability analysis using various sources of test data and expert knowledge at both subsystem and system levels. Four scenarios based on available information for the priors and test data of a system and/or subsystems are studied using specific Bayesian inference techniques. This paper proposes the Bayesian melding method for integrating subsystem-level priors with system-level priors for both system- and subsystem-level reliability analysis. System and subsystem reliability outcomes are compared under different scenarios. Computational challenges for posterior inferences using the sophisticated Bayesian melding method are addressed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and adaptive Sampling Importance Re-sampling (SIR) methods. A case study with simulation results illustrates the applications of the proposed methods and provides insights for aerospace system reliability analysis using available multilevel information. 相似文献
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For structural systems with both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, research on quantifying the contribution of the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to the failure probability of the systems is conducted. Based on the method of separating epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a variable, the core idea of the research is firstly to establish a novel deterministic transition model for auxiliary variables, distribution parameters, random variables, failure probability, then to propose the improved importance sampling(IS) to solve the transition model. Furthermore,the distribution parameters and auxiliary variables are sampled simultaneously and independently;therefore, the inefficient sampling procedure with an ‘‘inner-loop' for epistemic uncertainty and an‘‘outer-loop' for aleatory uncertainty in traditional methods is avoided. Since the proposed method combines the fast convergence of the proper estimates and searches failure samples in the interesting regions with high efficiency, the proposed method is more efficient than traditional methods for the variance-based failure probability sensitivity measures in the presence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Two numerical examples and one engineering example are introduced for demonstrating the efficiency and precision of the proposed method for structural systems with both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. 相似文献
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孙杨慧 《民用飞机设计与研究》2013,(Z2)
安全性评估是发动机适航验证的重要方法之一,故障树与马尔科夫分析方法是安全性评估常用的方法,两种方法在安全性评估的不同时机具有各自的特点。针对故障树与马尔科夫在安全性评估中的应用时机进行了深入的研究,分析结果表明:对于失效率为常数的顺序相关的系统,若部件是主动失效部件(即姿伊t较小),应用故障树与马尔科夫分析方法均可准确评估系统的失效概率,采用故障树可以减少运算的复杂性;若部件是潜在失效部件,由于部件暴露时间较长(即姿伊t较大),使用马尔科夫的分析方法可以更精确的评估系统的安全性。 相似文献
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孙杨慧 《民用飞机设计与研究》2013,(5):29
安全性评估是发动机适航验证的重要方法之一,故障树与马尔科夫分析方法是安全性评估常用的方法,两种方法在安全性评估的不同时机具有各自的特点。针对故障树与马尔科夫在安全性评估中的应用时机行了深入的研究,分析结果表明:对于失效率为常数的顺序相关的系统,若部件是主动失效部件(即λ×t较小),应用故障树与马尔科夫分析方法均可准确评估系统的失效概率,采用故障树可以减少运算的复杂性;若部件是潜在失效部件,由于部件暴露时间较长(即λ×t较大),使用马尔科夫的分析方法可以更精确的评估系统的安全性。 相似文献
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针对现代航空中存在的沟通、压力、团队合作以及生理和心理方面的人为因素问题,采用模糊层次分析法对其重要性进行识别.结果显示,语音信息沟通、机组资源管理、书面信息沟通、空管班组资源管理、疲劳、情景意识、维修班组资源管理、过分自信和满足在现代航空人为因素问题中占有比较突出的地位. 相似文献
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