Portfolios of promise: A review of R&D investment techniques and how they apply to technology development in space agencies

Despite a rich legacy of impressive technological accomplishments, the government acquisition of advanced space systems is increasingly synonymous with schedule slips and cost overruns. Program reviews have suggested that investing more in centralized and strategic research and development outside particular programs will reduce technical uncertainties and improve cost and schedule outcomes. This paper suggests roles for a centralized technology office by examining the methods available in the literature for managing portfolios of research projects.     

Geometric problem solving with strings and pins

Humans solve spatial and abstract problems more easily if these can be visualized and/or physically manipulated. We analyze the domain of geometric problem solving from a cognitive perspective and identify several levels of domain abstraction that interact in the problem solving process. We discuss the roles of physical manifestations of spatial configurations, their manipulation, and their perception for understanding problem solving processes. We propose an extension of the classical problem solving repertoire of constructive geometry to approach certain problems more directly than under the compass-and-straightedge paradigm. Specifically, we introduce strings and pins as helpful metaphors for a generalization of the constructive geometry approach. We present classical problems from spatial problem solving to illustrate the ‘strings and pins’ paradigm. Three case studies are discussed: strings-and-pins solutions to (i) the ellipse construction problem; (ii) the shortest path problem; and (iii) the angle trisection problem. Comparisons to formal solutions are drawn. Differences and similarities between the compass-and-straightedge paradigm and the strings-and-pins paradigm are analyzed. Features and limitations of constructive and depictive geometry as well as implications for computational approaches are discussed. The strings-and-pins domain is shown to be more general and less restrictive than the compass-and-straightedge domain.     

Phobos regolith simulants PGI-1 and PCA-1

The Martian moon Phobos is the target of the upcoming JAXA Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) mission. There are currently no known samples of Phobos, so spacecraft hardware testing and scientific studies require Phobos regolith simulants. Here, we present two new Phobos regolith simulants: Phobos Captured Asteroid-1 (PCA-1) and Phobos Giant Impact (PGI-1). These two simulants reflect the two hypotheses for Phobos’s formation, and thus the two broad possibilities for composition. This work follows previous efforts to document the development of mineralogically accurate simulants, in an effort to overcome past pitfalls with inappropriate uses of simulants. We report physical and geotechnical properties of PCA-1 and PGI-1, including their reflectance spectra, grain size distributions, abrasivity, cohesion, strength, and hardness. Our intent is for PCA-1 and PGI-1 to be open standards for Phobos simulants, and we present the simulant recipes and production methodology for use and modification by the community.     

Space science innovation: How mission sequencing interacts with technology policy

Innovation is fundamental to a space agency's mission. Yet, the industry's current dominant approach to new technology development – concerted investment in step-changes in capabilities to support a particular application – contradicts the conventional wisdom of innovation theory. In order to understand why, this paper uses a unique empirical case study, in which exogenous historical circumstances created unexpected additional opportunities for technology investment, to explore the merits of this approach. The value of follow-on periods of R&D is assessed in terms of simple marginal returns, implications for workforce dynamics and the interaction of mission sequencing and technology strategy. The analysis reveals an important contingency between mission paradigm and the value of follow-on investment. Specifically, while marginal performance improvements can be achieved at lower costs, their value depends on the availability of an appropriate mission opportunity. In the current paradigm, the risk of obsolescence is high compared to the potential benefit. However, if a new small mission, frequent flights, paradigm were to take hold, there may be great value in refocusing R&D strategy on later round improvements.     

Moon first versus flexible path exploration strategies: Considering international contributions

This paper analyses potential future collaborative space exploration architectures in terms of 1) the technical capabilities of contributing partners; and 2) the constraints imposed by internal and international politics. We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a “flexible path” approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make “Moon first” economically feasible; and characteristics of proposed “flexible path” approaches may preclude international involvement because of the disproportionate risk that those contributions inherently bear. This could have serious implications for future collaborations. We also note that while there are multiple feasible collaborative architectures, there is currently substantial overlap among the potential niche contributions identified by the international partners.