Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Observation of fundamental magnetoplasma emissions excited in magnetosphere by modulated electron beams

There were several cases when modulated electron beam had been injected from APEX satellite into an otherwise unmodified ionospheric plasma. The beams were formed from 2 μs pulses repeated at a rate of 40kHz. Injections took place in the altitude range 400–1100km over Europe. The onboard receiver connected to the dipole antenna swept the frequency interval 1–10 MHz in 1 sec. Due to a relatively narrow receiver bandwidth (15 kHz), moderate frequency step (50 kHz), slow changes of f_n and f_c (local electron plasma and gyro frequencies) fine structure of excited emissions was detected. In many cases, a very prominent doublet could be convincingly identified as a (f_n,f_u=sqrt(f_n^*f_n+f_c^*f_c)) band, with f_n practically equal to the local plasma frequency in the unperturbed ionosphere. Determination of plasma frequency is of prime importance in analysis of complex structures composed from various harmonics f_n,f_c,f_u. Complexity is manifested as coalescing of various harmonics with maxima shifted from nominal frequencies or splitting them into components due to mixing of local and propagation effects. Despite the existence of strong emissions on frequencies characteristic for the unperturbed ionosphere, very strong broadcasting transmissions are frequently cut off, even when the beam is directed upward. Most typical spectra are discussed.     

Wave measurements in active experiments on plasma beam injection

The paper presents the results and discussion of VLF wave measurements carried out in the course of two rocket experiments on injection of a dense cesium ion beam into the ionosphere at the heights of 165–240 km. The injection was accompanied by enhancement of the broad-band noise by several orders of magnitude. The wave measurements in the frequency range of 1–11 kHz revealed two pronounced frequencies somewhat exceeding that of the lower-hybrid resonance oscillations in the background plasma and the cesium beam. The oscillations were modulated by frequencies close to the ion-cyclotron frequencies of the background plasma.     

Estimation of plasma density from wave data of cold electron plasma

Based on the dispersion relation of electron plasma, one can expect, that the waves excited in the frequency band (f_p, f_u=sqrt(f_p^*f_p+f_c^*f_c)) should persist in experimental spectra. For wave data from a spacecraft immersed in a cold plasma such an assumption may be misleading. In measurements performed on board the INTERCOSMOS-19, ACTIVE, APEX satellites and VC36.064CE rocket the most prominent spectral structure is centered around frequency f_r fulfilling the relation f_crp and corresponds to resonant detection of Bernstein waves excited in the surrounding plasma by spacecraft systems. Input network mismatch at frequencies around fu significantly depresses natural plasma noise as well as that excited by the spacecraft. Plasma emissions in the band (f_p, f_u) are prominent if the electromagnetic excitation is preferential (topside sounders) or if the excitation introduces nonequilibrium components into the plasma e.g. particle beams or clouds. Experimental examples are presented and parameters of cold plasma spectra useful for electron density estimation are discussed. The application to other spacecraft-cold plasma configurations is suggested.     

Alfven echo of giant ground loop current

Here are presented experimental results concerning the registration by ground magnetometers of artificial MHD echo generated by powerful pulse current in ground loop contour. Data analysis was made of several magnetic stations for 16 experiments with giant loop-current contour giving magnetic flux 10⁶nT/km² (the current attained 20 kA). Only several rather weak bursts were registered which appeared 78±2s after main switch impulse. Echo signal was a few nanotesla. Taking into account real magnetosphere tube configuration for L ≈ 5,5 and Kp≤2 it was shown that the signal with such a delay corresponds to propagation of artificial excited Alfven echo, returning back from a magnetoconjugate ionospheric region. Meanwhile, the amplitude exceed by one order the theoretically calculated one.     

Interaction of Phobos with the Solar Wind Plasma

The interaction of Phobos with the solar wind is considered both theoretically and using the experimental data of the FGMM magnetometer that were obtained in the course of the Phobos-2mission. It is demonstrated that the ions serving as a source of excitation of magnetosonic waves can be accumulated around Phobos. Examination of the magnetometer data has shown that the observed effects of a local decrease of the magnetic field near the Phobos orbit correspond to magnetosonic waves. Observation of these effects depends on the geometry of an experiment.     

The dynamics of the object potential during electron beam injection and the possibility to control it

This review of the rocket and satellite experiments on electron beam injection in the height range of the ionosphere-magnetosphere shows a variety of manifestations of the positive charge potential on the body of the injector unit or in the space charge zone.

The possibilities of compensation are considered on the basis of theoretical models taking into account the beam-plasma collective interactions. The examples of numerical modeling of the charge-discharge dynamics are provided for the APEX conditions. It is shown that changing the pulse form and rise rate (dI/dt) one can change the structure of the space charge zone i.e. try to create the strong disturbance or resonance conditions in the time interval of πω_p≤ t ≤ t_ion. From these positions, we consider the APEX facilities used to control the inflow current, the spectrum of energetic particles, the high-frequency oscillations and the spatial distribution of optical emissions in the injector vicinity with high time resolution.     

Modeling of artificial plasma “bubble” in ionosphere

Results of a combination of radio-crossing and in situ measurements of plasma density in an artificial plasma “bubble” in the ionosphere are presented. Shaped — charge barium injection was made at short distance (≤50 m) to plasma diagnostics on the rocket. After injection the rocket passed through expanding plasma shell. Plasma density depletion inside was more than one order and plasma enhancements on the boundary about 3–5 times that of background. When the rocket passed the shell and went away by 2.1 km an abrupt drop of telemetry signal level (≤ 65 dB) was registered though plasma density was not more than 3×10³sm⁻³. An estimation of high frequency signal refraction on the plasma shell is in good accordance with refraction data of geostationary satellite signals on equatorial bubbles.     

Modulation of the background flux of energetic particles by artificial injection

A rocket experiment of plasma injection in the Brazilian magnetic anomaly region was performed according to the scientific programme COMBI. Experiment scenario, diagnostic instrumentation on board, plasma generator were the same as in other COMBI programme experiments. Multichannel registration of energetic particle flux was made by Geiger counters. At height range (165–200 km) a deep modulation (100%) of natural energetic particle flux by plasma injection was registered. Modulation period of particle flux was equal to plasma injection period 5s. During injection particle flux decreased by more than one order and restored its previous value during the pause. We present the detailed decription of the experiment, method data treatment and analysis and physical processes which may be responsible for the observed phenomenon.     

The MGM spectral analysis of Wolf sunspot numbers: Preliminary results

A method of nonlinear spectral analysis, named by the method of the global minimum (MGM) has been used to find periodicities in the annual Wolf sunspot numbers W, for the 295 year time period from 1700 to 1995. The normalised mean square error of the model fit to the data set . The main spectral peak is an unresolved (due to confluence of error bars) triplet at mean period 252 yr. We hypothesise that one of the triplet peaks is connected with the rotation period of a massive 10^th planet, which has to be located at one of Pluto's Lagrange points. The solar magnetic cycle (22 yr) could be the 11^th harmonic of this triplet (22.3×11=245 yr). The most powerful peak in vicinity of 11 years is an unresolved doublet with a mean period of T=10.8 yr. We have demonstrated that the magnetic cycle is non-stationary during the period 1700–1995 and described by doublet with a mean period of T=22.3 yr. Other nonstationary harmonics are discussed, also. The 11.87- yr spectral peak could be associated with the effect of Jupiter. Error bars and the statistical significances of the spectral peaks are presented. The study is ongoing, so that our results will be rendered more precise in the next future.