High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab’s High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E_10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index a_p, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E_10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.     

Climatology of extreme upper atmospheric heating events

We use a trio of empirical models to estimate the relative contributions of solar extreme ultraviolet heating, Joule heating and particle heating to the global energy budget of the earth’s upper atmosphere. Daily power values are derived from the models for the three heat sources. The SOLAR2000 solar irradiance specification model provides estimates of the daily extreme EUV solar power input. Geomagnetic power comes from a combination of satellite-derived electron precipitation power and an empirical model of Joule power derived from hemispherically integrated estimates of high-latitude heating, which we discuss in this paper. From 1975 to mid-2002, the average daily contributions were electrons: 51 GW, Joule: 95 GW and solar: 784 GW. Joule and particle heating combine to provide more than 17% of the total global upper atmospheric heating. For the top 10% and 1% of heating events, contributions rise to 20% and 25%, respectively. In the top 15 heating events, geomagnetic power contributed more than 50% of the total power budget. During three events, the Joule power alone exceeded solar power.     

Variability in the solar constant from irradiances shortward of Lyman-Alpha

The variation in the solar constant, S(t), is reproduced by the SOLAR2000 Research Grade v1.05 empirical solar irradiance model and is described for 5 solar cycles between cycles 18 and 23 (February 14, 1947 through May 31, 2000). This solar constant variation is dependent upon the derivation data sets and the formulation of SOLAR2000 which are described in more detail. The S(t) temporal variability in SOLAR2000 is shown for the solar spectrum between 1–122 nm. The variability is consistent with previous discussions in the literature and a new result is shown where the 1–122 nm wavelength range accounts for about 5–14% of the standard deviation reported in the ASTM E-490 standard. The minimum-maximum range of S(t) variation due to 1–122 nm variability is between 1367.2768 Wm⁻² on 1986-152 and 1367.2877 Wm⁻² on 1957-340. The mean S(t) in these data is 1367.2796 Wm⁻².