Change in refractivity of the atmosphere and large variation in TEC associated with some earthquakes,observed from GPS receiver

The present study reports the analysis of GPS based TEC for our station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region in India at times close to some earthquake events (M ? 5) during the year 2009 in India and its neighbouring regions. The TEC data used in the study are obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitoring (GISTM) system. The TEC data has been analysed corresponding to 11 earthquakes in low solar activity period and quiet geomagnetic condition. We found that, out of 11 cases of earthquakes (M > 5) there were seven cases in which enhancement in TEC occurred on earthquake day and in other four cases there was depletion in TEC on earthquake day. The variation in refractivity prior to earthquake was significant for the cases in which the epicentre lied within a distance of 600 km from the receiving station. By looking into the features on temporal enhancement and depletion of TEC a prediction was made 3–2 days prior to an earthquake (on 28 October 2009 in Bhuj – India). The paper includes a brief discussion on the method of potentially identifying an impending earthquake from ionospheric data.     

A study on Nighttime Winter Anomaly (NWA) and other related Mid-latitude Summer Nighttime Anomaly (MSNA) in the light of International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) – Model

The ionospheric Nighttime Winter Anomaly (NWA) is a feature observed in the Northern Hemisphere at the American and in the Southern Hemisphere at the Asian longitude sector under low solar activity conditions. Jakowski et al. (2015) analyzed ground-based GPS derived TEC and peak electron density data from radio occultation measurements on Formosat-3/COSMIC satellites and confirmed the persistence of the phenomenon. Further, they assumed that Mid-latitude Summer Nighttime Anomaly (MSNA) and related special anomalies such as the Weddell Sea Anomaly (WSA) and the Okhotsk Sea Anomaly (OSA) are closely related to the NWA via enhanced wind-induced uplifting of the ionosphere. The aim of this paper is to study the factors causing these anomalies and also to investigate if these anomalies are re-produced by IRI. The results show that IRI model does include the NWA effect, though at a different longitude and could be improved for better predictions. The IRI-2016 model does show WSA in TEC but not in NmF2. Further, the IRI-2016 model could clearly predict the OSA both in NmF2 and TEC.     

Evaluation of the improvement of IRI-2016 over IRI-2012 at the India low-latitude region during the ascending phase of cycle 24

This paper investigated the performance of the latest International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI-2016) over that of IRI-2012 in predicting total electron content (TEC) at three different stations in the Indian region. The data used were Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 over three low-latitude stations in India namely; Bangalore (13.02°N Geographic latitude, 77.57°E Geographic longitude), Hyderabad (17.25°N Geographic latitude, 78.30°E Geographic longitude) and Surat (21.16°N Geographic latitude, 72.78°E Geographic longitude). Monthly, the seasonal and annual variability of GPS-TEC have been compared with those derived from International Reference Ionosphere IRI-2016 and IRI-2012 with two different options of topside electron density: NeQuick and IRI01-corr. It is observed that both versions of IRI (i.e., IRI-2012 and IRI-2016) predict the GPS-TEC with some deviations, the latest version of IRI (IRI-2016) predicted the TEC similar to those predicted by IRI-2012 for all the seasons at all stations except for morning hours (0500 LT to 1000?LT). This shows that the effect of the updated version is seen only during morning hours and also that there is no change in TEC values by IRI-2016 from those predicted by IRI-2012 for the rest of the time of the day in the Indian low latitude region. The semiannual variations in the daytime maximum values of TEC are clearly observed from both GPS and model-derived TEC values with two peaks around March-April and September-October months of each year. Further, the Correlation of TEC derived by IRI-2016 and IRI-2012 with EUV and F10.7 shows similar results. This shows that the solar input to the IRI-2016 is similar to IRI 2012. There is no significant difference observed in TEC, bottom-side thickness (B0) and shape (B1) parameter predictions by both the versions of the IRI model. However, a clear improvement is visible in hmF2 and NmF2 predictions by IRI-2016 to that by IRI-2012. The SHU-2015 option of the IRI-2016 gives a better prediction of NmF2 for all the months at low latitude station Ahmedabad compare to AMTB 2013.     

On the performance of IRI-2016 to predict the North-South asymmetry of the equatorial ionization anomaly around 73°E longitude

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in both northern and southern Equatorial anomaly regions are examined by using the Global Positioning System (GPS) based TEC measurements around 73°E Longitude in the Asian sector. The TEC contour charts obtained at SURAT (21.16°N; 72.78°E; 12.9°N Geomagnetic Lat.) and DGAR (7.27°S; 72.37°E; 15.3°S Geomagnetic Lat.) over 73°E longitude during a very low solar activity phase (2009) and a moderate solar activity (2012) phase are used in this study. The results show the existence of hemispheric asymmetry and the effects of solar activity on the EIA crest in occurrence time, location and strength. The results are also compared with the TEC derived by IRI-2016 Model and it is found that the North-South asymmetry at the EIA region is clearly depicted by IRI-2016 with some discrepancies (up to 20% in the northern hemisphere at SURAT and up to 40% in the southern hemisphere at DGAR station for June Solstice and up to 10% both for SURAT and DGAR for December Solstice). This discrepancy in the IRI-2016 model is found larger during the year 2012 than that during the solar minimum year 2009 at both the hemispheres. Further, an asymmetry index, (A_i) is determined to illustrate the North-South asymmetry observed in TEC at EIA crest. The seasonal, annual and solar flux dependence of this index are investigated during both solstices and compared with the TEC derived by IRI.     

β-分布的渐近抽样法及其在计算机上的实现

迄今,在一般的随机模拟文献中,关于β分布的抽样主要讨论参数为正整数情形。本文借助于Polya罐子模型黑球比例数X_的极限分布为β—分布这一原理,提出了正有理参数β—分布的渐近抽样方法,给出了模拟算法,编制了程序。选取若干正有理数参数,在计算机上进行了随机模拟,产生了渐近于β—分布的随机数,并制成了随机数表。本文对其中一些样本应用各种统计方法进行了检验,结果表明,拟合性是非常好的。     

A study of L band scintillations during the initial phase of rising solar activity at an Indian low latitude station

The ionospheric scintillation and TEC (Total Electron Content) variations are studied using GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements at an Indian low latitude station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E; Geomagnetic: 12.90°N, 147.35°E), situated near the northern crest of the equatorial anomaly region. The results are presented for data collected during the initial phase of current rising solar activity (low to moderate solar activity) period between January 2009 and December 2011. The results show that within a total number of 656 night-time scintillation events, 340 events are observed with TEC depletions, Rate of change of TEC (ROT) fluctuations and enhancement of Rate of change of TEC Index (ROTI). A comparison of night-time scintillation events from the considered period reveal strong correlation amongst the duration of scintillation activity in S₄ index_, TEC depletion, ROT fluctuations and ROTI enhancement in the year 2011, followed by the year 2010 and least in 2009. The statistical analyses of scintillation activity with enhancement of ROTI also show that about 70–96% scintillation activity took place in equinox and winter months. Moreover, from a nocturnal variation in occurrence of scintillation with (S₄ ? 0.2) and enhancement of ROTI with (ROTI ? 0.5), a general trend of higher occurrence in pre-midnight hours of equinox and winter seasons is observed in both indices during the year 2011 and 2010, while no significant trend is observed in the year 2009. The results suggest the presence of F-region ionospheric irregularities with scale sizes of few kilometers and few hundred meters over Surat and are found to be influenced by solar and magnetic activity.