Non-parametric regional VTEC modeling with Multivariate Adaptive Regression B-Splines

In this work Multivariate Adaptive Regression B-Splines (BMARS) is applied to regional spatio-temporal mapping of the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) using ground based Global Positioning System (GPS) observations. BMARS is a non-parametric regression technique that utilizes compactly supported tensor product B-splines as basis functions, which are automatically obtained from the observations. The algorithm uses a scale-by-scale model building strategy that searches for B-splines at each scale fitting adequately to the data and provides smoother approximations than the original Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). It is capable to process high dimensional problems with large amounts of data and can easily be parallelized. The real test data is collected from 32 ground based GPS stations located in North America. The results are compared numerically and visually with both the regional VTEC modeling generated via original MARS using piecewise-linear basis functions and another regional VTEC modeling based on B-splines.     

Establishing space industry in developing countries: Opportunities and difficulties

Although it is generally agreed that the outer space should be used for the benefit of all mankind, only a fraction of the countries have the necessary technological base for accessing space. Space technology, with its implications on science, economy and well-being of citizens, is mostly chosen as one of the priority areas for technological development by developing countries. However, there is already an over-capacity in global space industry and there are doubts on necessity of additional capacity establishment by developing countries. In this study, the importance and benefits of capacity-building in these countries are emphasized and the advantages and disadvantages that developing countries have in the framework of space technology acquisition are briefly presented. The feasibility of certain levels of space technology is discussed and the necessity of combining existing indigenous capabilities with technology obtained from foreign sources in the optimal way is stressed. We have also mentioned various general mechanisms of technology transfer and argued the importance of licensing in catching-up developed countries. After considering the necessary conditions of efficiency of technology, such as establishment of regional centers of space science and technology education by United Nations, joint development of space systems, complete technology transfer packages, cooperative space projects within regional organizations, coordinated constellations and special agreements with large space agencies, which are specific mechanisms already in use, are reviewed. Some typical examples of mechanisms are also given with special emphasize on small satellite technology that makes access to space affordable for many countries. Through sharing and analyzing the experience of developing countries in their odyssey of space capacity-building, the difficulties can be negotiated and the vicious circles can be broken. This study, in our view, is a step to incite a general discussion of obstacles and opportunities for developing countries, that could help them in using their limited resources effectively, hence, enable them to offer better conditions to their citizens and to contribute space science to a larger extend.     

Capacity building in emerging space nations: Experiences,challenges and benefits

This paper focuses on ways in which space is being used to build capacity in science and technology in order to:     

Comparison of ANN and MLR models for estimating solar radiation in Turkey using NOAA/AVHRR data

In this paper, the estimation capacities of MLR and ANN are investigated to estimate monthly-average daily SR over Turkey. The satellite data are used for 73 different locations over Turkey. Land surface temperature, altitude, latitude, longitude and month are offered as the input variables for modeling ANN and MLR to get SR. Estimations of SR are evaluated with the meteorological values by using the statistical bases. The obtained results indicated that the ANN model could achieve a satisfactory performance when compared to the MLR model. Moreover, it is understood that more accurate results in estimation of SR are obtained in the use of satellite data, rather than the use of meteorological station data. Finally, the built ANN model is used to estimate the yearly average of daily SR over Turkey. As a result, satellite-based SR map for Turkey is generated.     

Investigation of the relationship between ionospheric foF2 and earthquakes

Variations of the ionospheric F2 region critical frequency (foF2) have been investigated statistically before earthquakes during 1980–2008 periods in Japan area. Ionosonde data was taken from Kokubunji station which is in the earthquake preparation zone for all earthquakes. Standard Deviations and Inter-Quartile Range methods are applied to the foF2 data. It is observed that there are anomalous variations in foF2 before earthquakes. These variations can be regarded as ionospheric precursors and may be used for earthquake prediction.     

Regional VTEC modeling with multivariate adaptive regression splines

Different algorithms have been proposed for the modeling of the ionosphere. The most frequently used method is based on the spherical harmonic functions achieving successful results for global modeling but not for the local and regional applications due to the bounded spherical harmonic representation. Irregular data distribution and data gaps cause also difficulties in the global modeling of the ionosphere. In this paper we propose an efficient algorithm with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) to represent a new non-parametric approach for regional spatio-temporal mapping of the ionospheric electron density using ground-based GPS observations. MARS can handle very large data sets of observations and is an adaptive and flexible method, which can be applied to both linear and non-linear problems. The basis functions are directly obtained from the observations and have space partitioning property resulting in an adaptive model. This property helps to avoid numerical problems and computational inefficiency caused by the number of coefficients, which has to be increased to detect the local variations of the ionosphere. Since the fitting procedure is additive it does not require gridding and is able to process large amounts of data with large gaps. Additionally the model complexity can be controlled by the user via limiting the maximal number of coefficients and the order of products of the basis functions. In this study the MARS algorithm is applied to real data sets over Europe for regional ionosphere modeling. The results are compared with the results of Bernese GPS Software over the same region.