产品全生命周期快速研制技术

总结了产品生命周期各个阶段的快速研制技术,提出了产品全生命周期快速研制多维体系结构和“靶心”实现模型。     

Validation on MERSI/FY-3A precipitable water vapor product

The precipitable water vapor is one of the most active gases in the atmosphere which strongly affects the climate. China's second-generation polar orbit meteorological satellite FY-3A equipped with a Medium Resolution Spectral Imager (MERSI) is able to detect atmospheric water vapor. In this paper, water vapor data from AERONET, radiosonde and MODIS were used to validate the accuracy of the MERSI water vapor product in the different seasons and climatic regions of East Asia. The results show that the values of MERSI water vapor product are relatively lower than that of the other instruments and its accuracy is generally lower. The mean bias (MB) was ?0.8 to ?12.7?mm, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.2–17.0?mm, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) varied from 31.8% to 44.1%. On the spatial variation, the accuracy of MERSI water vapor product in a descending order was from North China, West China, Japan -Korea, East China, to South China, while the seasonal variation of accuracy was the best for winter, followed by spring, then in autumn and the lowest in summer. It was found that the errors of MERSI water vapor product was mainly due to the low accuracy of radiation calibration of the MERSI absorption channel, along with the inaccurate look-up table of apparent reflectance and water vapor within the water vapor retrieved algorithm. In addition, the surface reflectance, the mixed pixels of image cloud, the humidity and temperature of atmospheric vertical profile and the haze were also found to have affected the accuracy of MERSI water vapor product.     

成败型产品基于验后概率的Bayes序贯检验技术

分析了基于损失的Bayes检验方法和基于风险的SPOT(sequential posterior odd test)方法存在的不足.对装备试验与评价中成败型产品的Bayes序贯检验,在给定的两类风险要求下,建立了基于验后概率的Bayes序贯检验模型(PBSTM),给出了模型的求解算法和实际验后风险的计算公式. 最后结合装备可靠性分析案例,进行了示例分析,从数据上证明了PBSTM模型优越性和有效性.研究结果表明:PBSTM模型从理论上保证了序贯检验的结论同时满足小概率事件原理和两类风险要求,避免了现有假设检验方法存在的不足.      

卫星公用平台成熟度研究

介绍了国内外成熟度评估体系的发展情况,提出了平台配套单机产品成熟度等级分布、平台内/外部接口控制能力等用于评价卫星公用平台成熟度的6项要素。建立了用于表征卫星公用平台从原理平台开始,逐步进阶为有可靠性保证的多型号通用平台全过程的6级成熟度模型。最后分析了成熟度在指导平台系列化发展与平台快速成熟中的应用前景。     

Quality variation of GPS satellite clocks on-orbit using IGS clock products

Over 60% clocks on board of the GPS satellites are working longer than their designed life. Therefore realizing their stabilities in a long time scales is essential to GPS navigation and positioning plus IGS time scale maintaining. IGS clock products from 2001 to 2010 are used to analyze the GPS satellite clock qualities such as frequency stabilities and clock noise level. We find out that for the clocks of Block IIA satellites the frequency stabilities and clock noise are 10 times worse than that of the Block IIR and IIR-M satellites. Moreover, the linear relationships between frequency stabilities and clock residuals have been deduced with an accuracy of better than 0.02 ns. Specially, it is noticed that the clock of the PRN27 is instable and the relationship between the frequency stability and residuals is at least a quadratic curve. Therefore, we suggested that GPS satellite clocks should be weighted by their quality levels in application, and the observations of the Block IIA should not be used for real-time positioning which required precision better than one meter.     

TIA前机载软件成熟度评估的相关研究

率先引入rFAA（美国联邦航空局）提出的软件成熟度的概念。局方正式签发TIA（型号检查核准书）前,在软件的构型和符合性均未达到最终冻结状态的情况下,通过对软件的成熟度进行有效评估,可以为验证试飞前软件的工程批准提供有力的支持与保障,在一定程度上降低局方飞行试验的风险,保障适航验证试飞活动的顺利开展。由于机载软件成熟度足一个新兴的概念,目前局方（FAA、CAAC）对于如何进行成熟度评估尚未形成正式的、通用的政策性指导文件,国内主机厂对此问题也没有相关的处理经验和具体的操作方法。基于机载软件本身的特点,参考局方在机载软件审查时的主要关注点,提出了TIA前机载软件成熟度评估的基本考虑要素与分析重点。     

基于混合战略均衡双寡头航空公司定价博弈研究

利用产品差异化理论和博弈理论,建立了双寡头航空公司市场竞争定价的不完全信息静态博弈模型,假定双方经营相同航线、选择相同机型、面临相同旅客,而在产品价格和服务水平方面存在差异性,在文献【1】中证明了这种博弈不存在纯策略均衡,按照纳什均衡解存在性理论,对混合战略均衡进行求证,得出结论：双方价格和服务水平的大小关系一致时,其市场份额和期望利润的关系与之相同;双方两因素关系随机变化时,其市场份额及期望利润同其变化程度有关,即结果不确定。     

国外某航天企业项目管理模式探讨

分析了国外某航天企业的项目管理模式及其主要的管理组织结构和职能,指出项目管理能力已经成为衡量航天企业综合能力的重要标志,结合该企业先进的经验,讨论了目前国内航天院所项目管理现状的不足,并提出了提高相关项目管理能力和管理成熟度的建议。     

基于知识集成模型的产品快速设计

为提升现有CAD(Computer-Aided Design)系统对设计知识的重用能力,提出 了设计知识的分层描述和集成建模方案,并给出了具体实施方法.将设计知识划分到构型层 、设计层和造型层3个抽象层次,基于UG(Unigraphics)平台的知识熔接语言(KFL,Knowl edge Fusion Language)和Open++实现了各层设计知识的描述与集成.构建了知识集成模型 的创建和重用支撑系统框架.作为应用实例,在UG平台上开发了专用减速器快速设计系统.      

产品开发早期基于核心工艺框架的工艺设计

关于早期工艺设计理论方法的研究都是以特征信息为基础,不能利用早期阶段粗粒 度、非完备的产品信息.为此,采用关键特性表示粗粒度、非完备的产品信息,提出基于核 心工艺框架的工艺设计方法.核心工艺框架是对满足关键特性要求的工艺计划的抽象,可表 达产品族或零件族中各种变型的核心工艺内容,根据分支和存在规则快速配置工艺计划.基 于核心工艺框架的工艺设计过程包括4个步骤:确定产品族/零件族,检索核心工艺框架, 配置核心工艺和工艺路线设计,有效性规则、原理性规则和定制性规则确保工艺设计的准确 性.最后通过有翼导弹的弹翼主梁的加工工艺验证了此方法的可行性.