Reliability evaluation of avionics system with imperfect fault coverage and propagated failure mechanisms

Fault tolerance designs are essential techniques for systems that require high levels of reliability, such as aircraft or spacecraft control system. Imperfect Fault Coverage (IFC) may lead to the failure of a system or subsystem even with adequate redundancy. Previous studies of IFC mostly concentrated on evaluating Coverage Factor (CF), whereas the system failure behaviors with IFC have rarely been involved. Failures that occur in low-layer may be covered by high-layer. However, if the coverage is imperfect, uncovered failure will have functional and physical impact on the system behavior. In this thesis, the failure behavior and reliability of IFC of multi-layer systems are studied and a Binary Decision Diagram (BDD)-based modeling and simulation method are proposed to evaluate system reliability. As a case, the failure behavior of an aero engine electronic controller with IFC is studied. The results show that the IFC may impact system behavior without taking the IFC into account, the system maintenance intervals may reduce, and thus the maintenance costs will increase.     

基于核心零部件聚类的飞机现场可更换单元划分

为研究军用飞机测试性设计过程中现场可更换单元（LRU）划分工作，以功能独立性和结构独立性为基本原则，以降低飞机维修保障成本和时间为主要目标，设计了一种军用飞机LRU划分方案。方案在首先实现了飞机从整机到零部件的功能结构分层划分基础上，从设备零部件层级出发，以综合重要度作为各零部件的定量化指标，运用帕累托（Pareto）原则筛选出核心零部件。然后基于核心零部件开发了一种LRU划分聚类算法，该算法以军用飞机设计研制阶段、使用保障阶段、退役处置阶段全寿命周期内成本和时间为优化目标构造综合评判因子，实现了非核心零部件与LRU模块之间的聚类组合，得到最优的LRU划分结果。最后以某型军用飞机上蒸发循环制冷装置为例，运用本文设计的方案实现了该装置LRU的划分，并将划分结果与该装置的实际LRU清单进行对比，通过维修保障成本和时间综合评判因子对两种划分结果的优劣性进行分析，得出本文设计方案得到的LRU划分结果对飞机维修保障成本和时间的优化效果较为均衡的结论。     

一种用于同步静止卫星监测的微型VLBI网

针对地球静止轨道（GEO）卫星全天时全天候高精度的监测需求，考虑传统甚长基线干涉（VLBI）测站高成本、高投入和GEO卫星专用观测时段有限等制约条件，研发了简易型VLBI观测系统，并组建了包括上海、都匀和乌鲁木齐三站的微型VLBI网（micro VLBI network，MVN），开展了并置站测试以及对GEO卫星亚太6C的连续监测，并评估了当前MVN的观测能力。结果表明MVN扣除系统差后的单站接收精度为2ns，各基线观测时延拟后残差约几纳秒，GEO目标实测位置精度为百米级（内外符精度分别约100m和400m）。不同于传统VLBI和其他GEO监测手段，MVN还具备全天时、全天候、低造价、易布设及易推广等特点，充分表明了其在GEO卫星监测领域的应用价值。     

Team effectiveness evaluation and virtual reality scenario mapping model for helicopter emergency rescue

The application of helicopter emergency rescue is becoming increasingly widespread, but the flight crew training in this area is still difficult due to high cost and risk. Nevertheless, with the development of Virtual Reality (VR) technology, virtual simulation has become a significant role in crew training of helicopter rescue. During the implementation of VR-based training, how to transform complex real tasks into VR scenarios and how to evaluate the performance of crew are of great importance. To address these issues, a novel VR-based R-E-A-D (Report, Evaluate, Agree, Do) evaluation model for training is proposed, which is suitable for complex missions with multiple tasks, multiple scenarios, and multiple people. Then, a mapping method of VR scenarios is put forward, which can transform the real tasks into virtual scenarios to serve the virtual simulation training. Finally, an experiment is carried out to verify the feasibility of the evaluation method and virtual scenario mapping method.     

Assessment of space debris collisions against spacecraft with deorbit devices

Deorbit methods have been employed to remove space debris from orbit. One of these methods is to utilize atmospheric drag. In this method, a membrane loaded into the spacecraft is expanded to increase atmospheric drag. Although this method works without requiring fuel, it has the disadvantage of a high risk of collision with other debris owing to its larger area. Area-time product and energy-to-mass ratio have been used as indices to evaluate the risk of collisions between spacecraft and debris. However, the evaluation criteria were uncertain because these two indices are independent. In this paper, we propose a new evaluation index, single-sheet collision factor (SSCF), that comprehensively evaluates the collision risk based on experiments simulating debris collisions. As a result of the hypervelocity collision experiment, we found that the penetration-area mass of the spacecraft affects the severity of debris collisions. In this paper, the product of the exterior-wall thickness, the exterior-wall density, and the space debris cross-sectional area defines the penetration-area mass of the spacecraft. Furthermore, we compare and evaluate various deorbit methods using SSCF. The comparison showed that the penetration-area mass of the SSCF could be quantitatively determined for the debris-collision severity due to difference in structural materials of spacecraft. SSCF will be used to create rules for space-environment conservation with the expansion of the space-development market.     

基于贝叶斯网络的要地防空目标威胁评估模型

目标威胁评估是要地防空作战决策的重要组成部分。文章对要地防空的目标威胁评估进行了研究,将目标威胁意图引入目标威胁评估,在对要地防空目标威胁评估要素进行分析的基础上,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的目标威胁评估模型;针对要地防空的实际情况,在求得目标对各要地(阵地)的威胁度的基础上,建立考虑各要地(阵地)不同价值的要地防空目标威胁综合评估模型,满足实际作战需要,为武器目标分配提供了依据。     

天气影响下的空中交通系统容量评估综述

回顾了空中交通系统容量评估的基本方法,随后以恶劣天气为背景,介绍了空中交通系统不同组成单元中容量研究的对象与方法.分析表明现有研究存在缺乏容量短周期评估方法、容量定义多样化、忽略管制员负荷等问题,并提出了后续研究的思路.     

直升机主最低设备清单的确定

为提高民用直升机的利用率和经济性,可编制主最低设备清单(MMEL).根据AC313型机MMEL项目的经验,总结出民用直升机MMEL的确定逻辑决断程序,并探讨MMEL在军用直升机上的应用前景.     

基于模糊逻辑的软件项目风险评估方法

风险评估是软件项目风险管理的重要内容。利用成本估算模型中已有的专家知识和启发信息进行风险评估的RiskMethod方法是一种较优的风险分析方法，但是实际项目中存在的模糊性信息对分析数据的准确性影响较大，导致评估结果的可信度降低。将模糊逻辑应用于RiskMethod方法中，使用COCOMO II模型的成本驱动作为每个风险事件的对应驱动，将评估的输入量使用三角模糊数的方法模糊化成模糊输入量，将评估结果使用重心方法去模糊化成输出量，从而提出了基于模糊逻辑的软件项目风险评估方法，并通过实例说明了方法在实际项目中应用的可行性。     

企业技术创新绩效考核评价体系构建特性分析

评价指标的设立是创新绩效考核体系的核心问题。在对企业技术创新绩效考核评价体系特性进行系统分析的基础上,首次提出创新系统的绩效考核评价可以分解为对创新输入、创新输出以及创新能力三个方面的评价,并通过对创新流程的分析,分别提出了由这三个方面指标组成的创新绩效考核评价指标,对科学合理地建立精炼、完备的创新评价指标的方法进行了探讨。