门限自回归模型参数的局部正交设计寻优法

在采用点值图确定门限区间个数的基础上，对门自回归模型中门限值、滞后步长、各门限区间模型阶数，利用正交设计方法寻优，计算工作量锐减，却可得到精度较高的预报模型。     

基于Pro/E软件的卫星三维建模方法的探讨

主要对基于Pro/E软件的卫星三维建模和高效率、高可靠性、低成本的总装设计方法等进行了初步的研究和探讨。     

美国科技文献资源体系建设及启示

介绍了美国联邦政府和国家航空般天局（NASA）科技文献信息资源体系建设，科技信息纲领的内涵、宗旨、任务、目标，实施科技信息纲领的工作程序、组织管理机构，科技信息产品和服务，以及美国国家技术信息服务中心（NTIS）和航空航天科技信息中心（CASI）的运作情况，论述了美国科技文献信息资源在推动科技进步中的作用，并在研究分析的基础上给出了结论。     

Ionospheric behavior of the F2 peak parameters foF2 and hmF2 at Hainan and comparisons with IRI model predictions

Monthly median values of foF2, hmF2 and M(3000)F2 parameters, with hourly time interval resolution for the diurnal variation, obtained with DPS-4 digisonde observations at Hainan (19.4°N, 109.0°E) are used to study the low latitude ionospheric variation behavior. The observational results are compared with the International Reference Ionospheric Model (IRI) predictions. The time period coverage of the data used for the present study is from March 2002 to February 2005. Our present study showed that: (1) In general, IRI predictions using CCIR and URSI coefficients follow well the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the experimental values of foF2. However, CCIR foF2 and URSI foF2 IRI predictions systematically underestimate the observed results during most time period of the day, with the percentage difference ΔfoF2 (%) values changing between about −5% and −25%, whereas for a few hours around pre-sunrise, the IRI predictions generally overestimate the observational ones with ΔfoF2 (%) sometimes reaching as large as ∼30%. The agreement between the IRI results and the observational ones is better for the year 2002 than for the other years. The best agreement between the IRI results and the observational ones is obtained in summer when using URSI coefficients, with the seasonal average values of ΔfoF2 (%) being within the limits of ±10%. (2) In general, the IRI predicted hmF2 values using CCIR M(3000)F2 option shows a poor agreement with the observational results. However, when using the measured M(3000)F2 as input, the diurnal variation pattern of hmF2 given by IRI2001 has a much better agreement with the observational one with the detailed fine structures including the pre-sunrise and post-sunset peaks reproduced reasonably well. The agreement between the IRI predicted hmF2 values using CCIR M(30,000)F2 option and the observational ones is worst for the afternoon to post-midnight hours for the high solar activity year 2002. During daytime hours the agreement between the hmF2 values obtained with CCIR M(30,000)F2 option and the observational ones is best for summer season. The discrepancy between the observational hmF2 and that obtained with CCIR M(30,000)F2 option stem from the CCIR M(3000)F2 model, which does not produce the small scale structures observed in the measured M(3000)F2.     

Digital Aircraft Sheet Metal Part Manufacturing System and Its Key Technology

The architecture of digital sheet metal manufacturing system is proposed based on the classification of sheet metal manufacturing information.The essence of digital manufacturing is the definition,management and transfer of information,and the key technologies are brought forward and described.It is pointed out that knowledge-based manufacturing elements design is necessary to make digital technology efficient.The management of all kinds of sheet metal manufacturing element information is to build single source of manufacturing data.Multi-state model-based digital transfer and coordination method is designed to provide a foundation for digital manufacturing of aircraft sheet metal part.The application of digital sheet metal manufacturing is exemplified with an aircraft sheet metal part.The application result is compared to that of the traditional analog transfer technology.It is shown that the developed technology can improve part quality,shorten manufacturing time and lower manufacturing cost.     

离箱扰动和折叠翼展开数学模型研究

根据箱式发射导轨与导弹，导弹与折叠翼的约束特点，应用动力学普遍定理和解除约束原理，创建了离箱扰动运动数学模型和拆卸叠翼展开过程计算数学模型，并将计算结果与飞行试验结果作了比较。     

基于有限元法的隧道荷载模型位移反分析

介绍了一种以荷载模型为求解对象的位移反分析法。它是以通用有限元软件为实验平台，利用隧道位移实测值建立荷载灵敏系数方程，根据最小二乘法原理反求隧道模型的荷载，再将正分析结果和实际值进行对比分析井重新调整隧道荷载模型，最终获得较为符合实际的隧道荷载模型。该方法的优点是既考虑了岩土松动荷载效应又能体现支护结构与周围岩土体的共同作用，且具有较好的操作性。     

掠海飞行导弹击水概率的仿真研究

本文对掠海导弹的击水概率问题进行了研究,提出了用均匀设计、Monte—Carlo法和逐步回归法建立击水概率预报公式的仿真方法,并结合某型号的反舰导弹进行计算,得到了满意的结果。本文还利用表观频率和表观频谱的概念,建立起飞航导弹的背景干扰——海浪和阵风的数学模型,并用波叠加法进行了数字仿真。     

区域开发战略目标定量研究--兼论区域开发战略目标矛盾的协调

文章在回顾我国区域开发战略的基础上,结合我国区域经济发展现状,利用层次分析法建立了区域开发战略模型.通过定量研究,得出了我国区域经济发展必须以社会公平为主目标,同时兼顾效率和可持续发展目标.     

高性能复合材料的发展

文章介绍高性能纤维复合材料的发展概况及我所复合材料成型技术专业发展应重点加强的环节。