Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

The gas pixel detector as a solar X-ray polarimeter and imager

The Sun is the nearest astrophysical source with a very intense emission in the X-ray band. The study of energetic events, such as solar flares, can help us to understand the behaviour of the magnetic field of our star. There are in the literature numerous studies published about polarization predictions, for a wide range of solar flares models involving the emission from thermal and/or non-thermal processes, but observations in the X-ray band have never been exhaustive.The gas pixel detector (GPD) was designed to achieve X-ray polarimetric measurements as well as X-ray images for far astrophysical sources. Here we present the possibility to employ this instrument for the observation of our Sun in the X-ray band.     

Variations of the solar acoustic high-degree mode frequencies over solar cycle 23

Using full-disk observations obtained with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft, we present variations of the solar acoustic mode frequencies caused by the solar activity cycle. High-degree (100 < ? < 900) solar acoustic modes were analyzed using global helioseismology analysis techniques over most of solar cycle 23. We followed the methodology described in details in [Korzennik, S.G., Rabello-Soares, M.C., Schou, J. On the determination of Michelson Doppler Imager high-degree mode frequencies. ApJ 602, 481–515, 2004] to infer unbiased estimates of high-degree mode parameters ([see also Rabello-Soares, M.C., Korzennik, S.G., Schou, J. High-degree mode frequencies: changes with solar cycle. ESA SP-624, 2006]). We have removed most of the known instrumental and observational effects that affect specifically high-degree modes. We show that the high-degree changes are in good agreement with the medium-degree results, except for years when the instrument was highly defocused. We analyzed and discuss the effect of defocusing on high-degree estimation. Our results for high-degree modes confirm that the frequency shift scaled by the relative mode inertia is a function of frequency and it is independent of degree.     

Element Separation in the Chromosphere Ionization-Diffusion Models for the FIP-Effect

Ionization-diffusion mechanisms to understand the first ionization potential (FIP) fractionation as observed in the solar corona and the solar wind are reviewed. The enrichment of the low-FIP elements (<10 eV) compared to the high-FIP elements, seen in e.g. slow and fast wind or polar plumes, is explained. The behaviour of the heavy noble gases becomes understandable. The absolute fractionation, i.e. in relation to hydrogen, can be calculated and fits well to the measurements. The theoretical velocity-dependence of the fractionation will with used to determine the velocities of the solar wind in the chromosphere. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Radial profile measurements of the solar wind speed using radio sounding techniques

Velocity measurements of the solar wind in the region of its acceleration were carried out in 1984 with Venera Orbiters using the following specific radio sounding techniques: (i) phase and frequency correlations from two or three widely-spaced ground stations; (ii) phase and frequency correlations from two spacecraft and two widely-spaced ground stations; (iii) two station two-way coherent Doppler measurements; (iv) determination of the break frequency in power spectra of intensity fluctuations. Our results are substantially lower than those derived from direct Doppler shift measurements of transition region and lower coronal resonance lines and those from measurements applying the Doppler dimming technique.     

Probing solar and stellar interior dynamics and dynamo

Solar and stellar activity is a result of complex interaction between magnetic field, turbulent convection and differential rotation in a star’s interior. Magnetic field is believed to be generated by a dynamo process in the convection zone. It emerges on the surface forming sunspots and starspots. Localization of the magnetic spots and their evolution with the activity cycle is determined by large-scale interior flows. Thus, the internal dynamics of the Sun and other stars hold the key to understanding the dynamo mechanism and activity cycles. Recently, significant progress has been made for modeling magnetohydrodynamics of the stellar interiors and probing the internal rotation and large-scale dynamics of the Sun by helioseismology. Also, asteroseismology is beginning to probe interiors of distant stars. I review key achievements and challenges in our quest to understand the basic mechanisms of solar and stellar activity.     

The Seed Population for Energetic Particles Accelerated by CME-Driven Shocks

Understanding properties of solar energetic particle (SEP) events associated with coronal mass ejections has been identified as a key problem in solar-terrestrial physics. Although recent CME shock acceleration models are highly promising, detailed agreement between theoretical predictions and observations has remained elusive. Recent observations from ACE have shown substantial enrichments in the abundances of ³He and He⁺ ions which are extremely rare in the thermal solar wind plasma. Consequently, these ions act as tracers of their source material, i.e., ³He ions are flare suprathermals and He⁺ ions are interstellar pickup ions. The average heavy ion composition also exhibits unsystematic differences when compared with the solar wind values, but correlates significantly with the ambient suprathermal material abundances. Taken together these results provide compelling evidence that CME-driven shocks draw their source material from the ubiquitous but largely unexplored suprathermal tail rather than from the more abundant solar wind peak. However, the suprathermal energy regime has many more contributors and exhibits much larger variability than the solar wind, and as such needs to be investigated more thoroughly. Answers to fundamental new questions regarding the preferred injection of the suprathermal ions, the spatial and temporal dependence of the various sources, and the causes of their variability and their effects on the SEP properties are needed to improve agreement between the simulations and observations.     

复杂动力学模型下星载天线跟瞄控制技术研究

针对星载天线动力学复杂这一问题,从天线系统刚柔耦合动力学建模、指向跟踪控制以及振动抑制等方面研究了柔性星载运动部件的指向控制方法。首先,通过描述系统几何拓扑关系建立系统运动学方程,从而简化动力学建模过程;之后,利用假设模态法,对天线反射面挠性进行建模;最后,将拉格朗日方程与挠性关节模型相结合,从而建立了星载天线非线性刚柔耦合动力学模型。在以上复杂动力学建模的基础上,采用分层设计的思路进行了控制策略设计：先运用基于计算力矩法的滑模控制器得到不考虑挠性关节的耦合控制律,从而保证卫星基体的稳定性以及天线挠性反射面的振动抑制;再使用反步法对挠性关节进行控制,实现对天线反射面的指向精度控制。最后,讨论了动力学参数不确定性对系统跟踪指向控制的影响并采用数学仿真的方式验证了相关动力学模型与控制算法。仿真结果表明该方法能较好地实现对星载天线的指向跟踪控制以及振动抑制,提高星载天线的动态指向精度。     

Non-stationarity and cross-correlation effects in the MHD solar activity

The analysis of turbulent processes in sunspots and pores which are self-organizing long-lived magnetic structures is a complicated and not yet solved problem. The present work focuses on studying such magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) formations on the basis of flicker-noise spectroscopy using a new method of multi-parametric analysis. The non-stationarity and cross-correlation effects taking place in solar activity dynamics are considered. The calculated maximum values of non-stationarity factor may become precursors of significant restructuring in solar magnetic activity. The introduced cross-correlation functions enable us to judge synchronization effects between the signals of various solar activity indicators registered simultaneously.     

Bayesian coronal seismology

In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.