A summary of the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema

This paper is a summary of our recent researches on the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema in the prediction of solar activity. Some correlation coefficients among the parameters in solar cycle according to this definition are higher than those according to the conventional definition. The descending time is found to be correlated (r = −0.77) with the ascending time 3 cycles earlier. The amplitude of solar cycle is found to be correlated (r = −0.77) with the max–max solar cycle length 2 cycles earlier. The ascending time is found to be correlated (r = −0.72) with the amplitude. A newly defined parameter called effective duration is found to be well correlated (r = 0.86) with the amplitude 5 cycles later. These correlations suggest that earlier cycles should influence later ones. The next (24th) solar cycle is estimated to start in March 2007 ± 7 months, reach its maximum in January 2011 ± 14 months, with a size of 150 ± 22, larger than those from some correlations according to the conventional definition.     

基于联合滤波器的高精度卫星定姿系统设计

设计了由陀螺、GPS姿态敏感器、红外地平仪和太阳敏感器构成的太阳同步极轨卫星姿态确定系统。提出联邦滤波器结构和算法,推导了各子系统的量测方程和姿态确定系统的误差状态方程。为规避对量测值进行非相关处理,采用减小GPS姿态敏感器输出的姿态滤波值作为系统滤波器量测值的频率的方法。仿真结果表明,采用联邦滤波器对多敏感器卫星姿态确定系统进行信息融合,具有计算量小、精度高、可靠性好等优点。     

Kuafu and the studies of CME initiation

We first briefly review the current trend in the studies of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), then summarize some recent efforts in understanding the CME initiation. Emphasis has been put on the studies of Earth-directed CMEs whose associated surface activity and large scale magnetic source have been well identified. The data analysis by combining the MDI full disc magnetograms, vector magnetograms of active regions, EUV waves and dimmings, non-thermal radio sources, and the SOHO LASCO observations has shed new light in understanding the CME magnetism. However, the current studies seem to invoke new observations in a few aspects: (1) The observations which enable us to trace CMEs from the earliest associated surface activity to its initial acceleration and key development in the low corona in the height of 1–3 R; (2) The imaging spectroscopic observations which can be used to diagnose the early plasma outflow and the line-of-sight velocity in understanding the kinematics of CMEs; (3) The accurate timing from primary magnetic energy release, manifested by chromospheric activity, non-thermal radio bursts, and EUV, X-ray and γ-ray emissions, to the CME initiation, early acceleration and propagation, and the consequences in the interplanetary space and magnetosphere. The Kuafu Mission will meet the basic requirement for the new observations in CME initiation studies and serve as a monitor of space weather of the Sun–Earth system.     

基于小生境技术的改进引力搜索算法

针对引力搜索算法（Gravitational sear ch algorithm,GSA）开发能力强而探索能力弱的特点,提出一种基于 小生境技术的引力搜索算法（Niching behavior based advanced GSA,NAGSA）。首先分析了引力搜索算法的性能,为每个粒子定义质量吸 引度和欧式距离吸引度两个属性,根据这两个属性计算出粒子吸引概率,取代原有的质量排 序选择法。其次,运用吸引概率和小生境拥挤度技术引导粒子在邻域内搜索,平衡算法的收敛 速度和多样性。此外,算法将k-best的取值按照指数函数递减,进一步提高收敛精度。 10个标准测试函数的仿真结果表明,该算法能有效地提高最优解的精度,加快收敛速度。最 后,采用4个标准柔性作业车间调度模型,验证了该算法在解决实际问题中的可行性和优越 性。     

Thermospheric X-Ray and Euv Heating by the Young Sun on Early Venus and Mars

In view of the low H₂O abundance in the present Venusian and Martian atmospheres several observations by spacecraft and studies suggest that both planets should have lost most of their water over the early active period of the young Sun. During the first Gyr after the Sun arrived at the Zero- Age-Main-Sequence high X-ray and EUV fluxes between 10 and 100 times that of the present Sun were responsible for much higher temperatures in the thermosphere-exosphere environments on both planets. By applying a diffusive-gravitational equilibrium and thermal balance model for investigating radiation impact on the early thermospheres by photodissociation and ionization processes, due to exothermic chemical reactions and cooling by CO₂ IR emission in the 15μm band we found expanded thermospheres with exobase levels between about 200 km (present) and 2000 km (4.5 Gyr ago). The higher temperatures in the upper atmospheres of both planets could reach “blow-off” conditions for H atoms even at high CO₂ mixing ratios of 96%. Lower CO₂/N₂ mixing ratio or higher contents of H2O vapor in the early atmospheres could have had a dramatic impact from the loss of atmosphere and water on both planets. The duration of this phase of high thermal loss rates essentially depended on the mixing ratios of CO₂, N₂, and H₂O in the early atmospheres and could have lasted between about 150 and several hundred Myr.     

航空发动机整机动力学研究进展与展望

对近年来航空发动机整机动力学的研究现状、进展进行了综述,包括双转子系统固有特性计算、转子-滚动轴承系统动力学、转子叶片振动、发动机机匣动力学、机动飞行转子系统动力学、航空发动机转子碰摩动力学、航空发动机转子裂纹以及整机动力学等.最后对航空发动机整机动力学今后工作研究的方向进行了展望.     

基于MAP估计和广义高斯分布的SAR图像边缘比率检测方法

 合成孔径雷达(SAR)图像的低信噪比和乘性相干斑噪声给SAR图像的边缘检测带来了极大的困难.通过引入广义高斯(GG)分布作为局部均值功率的先验分布模型,给出了局部均值功率在最大后验概率(MAP)意义下的最优估计,进而提出一种新的SAR图像边缘比率检测算子.利用以梅林变换为基础的对数累积量(MoLC)方法估计GG分布的参数,在此基础上给出一种局部均值功率MAP估计和GG分布参数估计的联合迭代求解方法.利用SAR实测数据对本文提出的边缘检测算子进行仿真验证,并将其与平均比率(RoA)算子和指数加权均值比(ROEWA)算子进行了对比,结果表明该算子可以有效克服相干斑噪声的影响,边缘定位准确且虚假边缘明显减少.     

主动变形扑翼飞行器的设计和风洞测力试验研究

主动变形扑翼可以模仿鸟翼飞行时的复杂运动。为了了解主动变形扑翼飞行器的气动特性,在研究鸟类骨骼结构和翅膀及尾翼运动规律的基础上,设计并制造了一种基于机器人技术的主动变形扑翼飞行器;给出了主动变形扑翼飞行器的机构运动规律函数,并设计出机构运动控制系统;在低速风洞中对此飞行器进行了一系列测力试验,研究了主动变形扑翼的升力、推力特性,以及风速、扑动频率、扑动幅度、伸展相位等参数对升力和推力的影响,并与常规扑翼进行了对比分析。试验结果表明,较之常规扑翼,主动变形扑翼可以显著增加升力和增强对不同飞行状态的适应能力。     

基于混合粒子滤波的载波估计算法

针对粒子滤波载波估计算法的高复杂度、粒子退化及贫化问题,提出了一种基于混合粒子滤波的载波估计方法.该方法引入多阶马尔科夫模型,采用多个非零均值高斯分布的加权和来近似重要性函数的最佳选择,并根据最大后验概率准则规范粒子的迭代计算.仿真结果表明,在非高斯噪声环境下,低轨卫星通信TDMA/DEQPSK(Time Division Multiple Address/Differential Quadrature Phase Shift Keying)数据帧非合作接收载波估计时,与基于经典粒子滤波的载波估计算法相比,提高了粒子"效率",在误码性能相当的情况下,有效降低了计算复杂度.     

加强实验室间能力比对提高军事计量保障能力CSCD

针对军事计量的现状,分析了开展实验室间能力比对的重要性,并结合多年来全军实验室间能力比对的情况,提出了做好实验室能力比对工作应注意的几个问题;通过研究适用于军队特点的量值传递方法,建立综合、机动、快速的装备测量标淮及设备,目的是提高军事计量保障能力。