Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

The energy release of substorm and magnetic storm: Its present state and future improvements by KuaFu mission

Considering the KuaFu mission, state of the energy release of substorm and storm is simply presented and it’s improvements by KuaFu mission are investigated. The KuaFu mission will provide us an opportunity to improve our understanding of the energy release during the storm and the substorms. The two KuaFu-B satellites flying in 180° phase-lagged formation in a polar orbit will allow synoptic observations of the auroral oval, central plasma sheet, ring current and other regions. It can monitor the polar region 24/7 continuously. The advantage of the KuaFu mission is to provide the data during all phases of storm and substorm time that can be used to study the global energy release during all phases continuously. The data from auroral imager and other in-situ instruments on board KuaFu-B can be used to study the auroral dynamics and Joule heating during a storm and substorm. The data from the neutral atom imager instrument can be used to study the dynamics and the energy release in the ring current region from sudden commencement to complete storm recovery. Furthermore the data from KuaFu-A, which is around L1 point, can be used to study the interplanetary conditions along with the data from the plasma sheet to study the triggering process and energy release during a substorm. So, KuaFu mission with its continuous time monitoring facilities would enable us to make much progress towards solving the underlying problems.     

Heavy ion observations by MARIE in cruise phase and Mars orbit

The charged particle spectrum for nuclei from protons to neon, (charge Z=10) was observed during the cruise phase and orbit around Mars by the MARIE charged particle spectrometer on the Odyssey spacecraft. The cruise data were taken between April 23, 2001 and mid-August 2001. The Mars orbit data were taken March 5, 2002 through May 2002 and are scheduled to continue until August 2004. Charge peaks are clearly separated for charges up to Z=10. Especially prominent are the carbon and oxygen peaks, with boron and nitrogen also clearly visible. Although heavy ions are much less abundant than protons in the cosmic ray environment, it is important to determine their abundances because their ionization energy losses (proportional to Z²) are far more dangerous to humans and to instruments. Thus the higher charged nuclei make a significant contribution to dose and dose equivalent received in space. Results of the charged particle spectrum measurements will be reported.     

High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab’s High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E_10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index a_p, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E_10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.     

1997年1月空间天气事件的三维MHD模拟

以1997年1月空气天气事件期间的观测为依据，在构造了比较接近真实的背景太阳风基础上，进一步利用三维时变的MHD模式，模拟了CME（日冕物质抛射）激发的扰动在行星际空间的传播过程，对地球空间环境的影响及行星际磁场南向分量Bz在1AU的时间经历。模拟结果与WIND卫星的测量进行了比较。结果表明，模拟与观测得到的扰动得到地球的时间、地球空间环境各量的变化及Bz的时间经历基本一致。     

有机硅热控涂层在模拟空间环境下的原位性能

研究了热控涂层在地面模拟空间环境下的性能变化：原位测定了紫外、电子辐照过程中热控涂层的性能变化；考察了K2SiO3包覆ZnO情况对涂层性能的影响；用扫描电镜（SEM）对辐照前后涂层表面微观形貌的变化进行了观察。结果表明，无论是缩合型的硅树脂还是加成型硅橡胶，在加入ZnO填料后，耐紫外辐照的能力都有明显的提高；不同种类涂层在真空紫外辐照作用下表现出不同规律。硅酸钾包覆ZnO对于有机硅树脂和加成型硅橡胶作基料的热控涂层影响也不同。加成型硅橡胶制备得到的热控涂层有非常优异的抗电子辐照性能。     

SiC_p/AL复合材料在空间光学遥感器上的应用

文章论述了碳化硅颗粒增强铝基(SiC_p/AL)复合材料在空间光学遥感器上的应用,较系统地介绍了已经完成的空间光学遥感器光机结构件镜身、镜盒的制造技术,并提出了对该材料在空间光学遥感器上应用前景的设想。     

掺混孔结构对大曲率受限空间出口温度分布的影响

回流燃烧室的掺混射流在大曲率受限的弯管中与主流掺混,回流导致沿径向的压力梯度变化,增加了掺混流动的复杂性.为了研究不同掺混孔结构对掺混射流与主流在大曲率弯曲通道内的掺混规律,在有收缩比弯曲通道中多孔射流的出口温度分布测试中,对影响掺混冷却的各变化参数按照单一变量进行比对研究,对孔径、孔间距等掺混孔结构变量弯曲通道内的掺...     

长征系列运载火箭航天发射总次数突破两位数

长征系列火箭为中国航天运载火箭的统称。文章讨论了该系列火箭的组成和航天发射情况。     

船体变形对航天测量船外弹道测量的影响

简要介绍了航天测量船船体变形测量系统的基本构成、测量原理和测量元素,分析了变形测量数据的基本特性,给出了船载外测数据船体变形修正的方法和计算公式;重点考察研究了船体变形数据对航天测量船外测数据和外测定轨的影响。