Towards a scientific understanding of the risk from extreme space weather

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest, and sometimes alarm, because bright aurora becomes visible at mid-latitudes. However, they had little economic impact because the major technologies of those eras were not sensitive to space weather. This is no longer true. The widespread adoption of advanced technological infrastructures over the past 40 years has created significant sensitivity. So these events now have the potential to disrupt those infrastructures – and thus have profound economic and societal impact. However, like all extreme hazards, such events are rare, so we have limited data on which to build our understanding of the events. This limitation is uniquely serious for space weather since it is a global phenomenon. Many other natural hazards (e.g. flash floods) are highly localised, so statistically significant datasets can be assembled by combining data from independent instances of the hazard recorded over a few decades. Such datasets are the foundation on which reliable risk assessment methodologies are built. But we have a single instance of space weather so we would have to make observations for many centuries in order to build a statistically significant dataset. We show that it is not practicable to assess the risk from extreme events using simple statistical methods. Instead we must exploit our knowledge of solar-terrestrial physics to find other ways to assess these risks. We discuss three alternative approaches: (a) use of proxy data, (b) studies of other solar systems, and (c) use of physics-based modelling. We note that the proxy data approach is already well-established as a technique for assessing the long-term risk from radiation storms, but does not yet provide any means to assess the risk from severe geomagnetic storms. This latter risk is more suited to the other approaches, but significant research is needed to make progress. We need to develop and expand techniques to monitoring key space weather features in other solar systems (stellar flares, radio emissions from planetary aurorae). And to make progress in modelling severe space weather, we need to focus on the physics that controls severe geomagnetic storms, e.g. how can dayside and tail reconnection be modulated to expand the region of open flux to envelop mid-latitudes?     

CCSDS空间网络互联协议发展及启示

空间互联网将是由各种区域网构成的复杂异构网络,为了使其能够逐步实现自动化运行,网络效益得到最大程度的发挥,须做好网络互联的顶层规划与设计,并开发具体的标准技术.根据近年CCSDS (Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems,空间数据系统咨询委员会)发布的建议书,以及相关工作组的项目规划情况,介绍了SSI(Solar System Internetwork,太阳系互联网)体系结构、IPoC(IP over CCSDS space links,在CCSDS空间链路之上承载IP),以及DTN(Delay Tolerant Networking,容延迟网络)等标准项目.从CCSDS空间网络互联技术的发展历程不难得出结论:我国未来空间网络互联应注重区域网之间互联的顶层设计;区域网内部各子网之间的互联技术应选择以航天任务需求牵引为主;DTN将在区域网之间互联以及区域网从简单到复杂发展中都发挥重要作用.     

航天器空间环境干扰力矩分析与仿真研究

针对航天器在轨运行时所受到的空间环境干扰力矩进行建模分析,并通过实时解算和矢量叠加的方式进行仿真研究,尤其对太阳光压力矩与大气阻力力矩的建模与仿真提出了新的方法,该方法通过建立光照面与迎风面的判断准则,准确地对太阳光压力矩与大气阻力力矩进行了估计。对各种空间环境干扰力矩的精确建模与仿真为航天器精确姿态控制设计及系统姿态控制方案和控制执行机构的选取提供了依据,文中提出的方法简单易用,工程实现性强,为未来的工程应用提供了一定的理论依据。     

Specification of the Earth’s plasmasphere with data assimilation

In this paper we report on initial work toward data assimilative modeling of the Earth’s plasmasphere. As the medium of propagation for waves which are responsible for acceleration and decay of the radiation belts, an accurate assimilative model of the plasmasphere is crucial for optimizing the accurate prediction of the radiation environments encountered by satellites. On longer time-scales the plasmasphere exhibits significant dynamics. Although these dynamics are modeled well by existing models, they require detailed global knowledge of magnetospheric configuration which is not always readily available. For that reason data assimilation can be expected to be an effective tool in improving the modeling accuracy of the plasmasphere. In this paper we demonstrate that a relatively modest number of measurements, combined with a simple data assimilation scheme, inspired by the ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation technique does a good job of reproducing the overall structure of the plasmasphere including plume development. This raises hopes that data assimilation will be an effective method for accurately representing the configuration of the plasmasphere for space weather applications.     

A high order method for orbital conjunctions analysis: Sensitivity to initial uncertainties

A high order method to quickly assess the effect that uncertainties produce on orbital conjunctions through a numerical high-fidelity propagator is presented. In particular, the dependency of time and distance of closest approach to initial uncertainties on position and velocity of both objects involved in a conjunction is studied. The approach relies on a numerical integration based on differential algebraic techniques and a high-order algorithm that expands the time and distance of closest approach in Taylor series with respect to relevant uncertainties. The modeled perturbations are atmospheric drag, using NRLMSISE-00 air density model, solar radiation pressure with shadow, third body perturbation using JPL’s DE405 ephemeris, and EGM2008 gravity model. The polynomial approximation of the final position is used as an input to compute analytically the expansion of time and distance of closest approach. As a result, the analysis of a close encounter can be performed through fast, multiple evaluations of Taylor polynomials. Test cases with objects ranging from LEO to GEO regimes are considered to assess the performances and the accuracy of the proposed method.     

低频靶标法测量CCD相机调制传递函数的仿真

基于用高频靶标法测试调制传递函数（MTF）时不能准确地体现出CCD器件的平均采样的情况。该文探讨用低频靶标法测试MTF，介绍它的原理；通过数字仿真CCD的光学镜头的模糊和采样平均过程，分析不同频率靶标的MTF测试结果，并分析相位造成的影响。     

Viability of barley seeds after long-term exposure to outer side of international space station

Barley seeds were exposed to outer space for 13 months in a vented metal container without a climate control system to assess the risk of physiological and genetic mutation during long-term storage in space. The space-stored seeds (S0 generation), with an 82% germination rate in 50 seeds, lost about 20% of their weight after the exposure. The germinated seeds showed normal growth, heading, and ripening. The harvested seeds (S1 generation) also germinated and reproduced (S2 generation) as did the ground-stored seeds. The culm length, ear length, number of seed, grain weight, and fertility of the plants from the space-stored seeds were not significantly different from those of the ground-stored seeds in each of the S0 and S1 generation. Furthermore, the S1 and S2 space-stored seeds respectively showed similar β-glucan content to those of the ground-stored seeds. Amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis with 16 primer combinations showed no specific fragment that appears or disappears significantly in the DNA isolated from the barley grown from the space-stored seeds. Though these data are derived from nine S0 space-stored seeds in a single exposure experiment, the results demonstrate the preservation of barley seeds in outer space for 13 months without phenotypic or genotypic changes and with healthy and vigorous growth in space.     

高阶矩谱分析与空间等离子体非线性相互作用识别

利用高阶矩统计分析方法对ＡＵＲＥＯＬ－３卫星观测数据进行分析处理，所涉及的信号分别为ＥＬＦ频率范围内的电场扰动Ｅｈ（ｔ）和等离子体密度波动δＮｅ／ｎｅ（ｔ），处理结果表明：利用高阶矩谱分析方法可以很好地识别空间等离了波－粒相互作用过程中的非线性成分     

INMARSAT测控网故障应对策略

结合INMARSAT-4F1早期轨道支持任务，介绍了INMARSAT测控网的结构和任务配置，给出了测控网发生故障时的处理方法以及实际应用情况。最后根据故障诊断理论，分析了航天测控网的故障特点。     

NASA深空网（DSN）的现状及发展趋势

详细介绍了美国深空网的发展过程、目前的状况以及未来的主要发展计划。