Forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms

Long-term forecast of space weather allows in achieving a longer lead time for taking the necessary precautions against disturbances. Hence, there is a need for long-term forecasting of space weather. We studied the possibility for a long-term forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms recur with an approximate 27-day period during the declining phase of a solar cycle. These disturbances are caused by the passage of corotating interaction regions, which are formed by interactions between the background slow-speed solar wind and high-speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole. In this study, we report on the performance of 27-day-ahead forecasts of the recurrent geomagnetic disturbances using Kp index. The methods of the forecasts are on the basis of persistence, autoregressive model, and categorical forecast using occurrence probability. The forecasts show better performance during the declining phase of a solar cycle than other phases. The categorical forecast shows the probability of detection (POD) more than 0.5 during the declining phase. Transition of the performance occurs sharply among the declining phases and other phases.     

Time step size and model stiffness in the simulated slew of a tow of square sails

In order to assess space tow solar sail stability and control feasibility, slew simulations are performed for a simplified but dynamically representative km-class tow-like sail of sixteen 25 m square units (10,000 m² total area and 110 kg gross mass) with a 250 kg payload. It is seen that, for the dimensions considered, the space tow concept is structurally sound and its control is feasible. While observed instabilities are identified as numeric in nature and are eliminated accordingly, their very occurrence highlights the need for a refinement of the model for future studies. The analyses are carried out with custom software implementing non-standard implicit-iterative time integration with innovative elements. A new damping model, specifically tailored for the analysis of truly gossamer systems such as solar sails, is also proposed.     

Parallel,adaptive, multi-object trajectory integrator for space simulation applications

Computer simulation is a very helpful approach for improving results from space born experiments. Initial-value problems (IVPs) can be applied for modeling dynamics of different objects – artificial Earth satellites, charged particles in magnetic and electric fields, charged or non-charged dust particles, space debris. An ordinary differential equations systems (ODESs) integrator based on applying different order embedded Runge–Kutta–Fehlberg methods is developed. These methods enable evaluation of the local error. Instead of step-size control based on local error evaluation, an optimal integration method is selected. Integration while meeting the required local error proceeds with constant-sized steps. This optimal scheme selection reduces the amount of calculation needed for solving the IVPs. In addition, for an implementation on a multi core processor and parallelization based on threads application, we describe how to solve multiple systems of IVPs efficiently in parallel.     

Establishing space industry in developing countries: Opportunities and difficulties

Although it is generally agreed that the outer space should be used for the benefit of all mankind, only a fraction of the countries have the necessary technological base for accessing space. Space technology, with its implications on science, economy and well-being of citizens, is mostly chosen as one of the priority areas for technological development by developing countries. However, there is already an over-capacity in global space industry and there are doubts on necessity of additional capacity establishment by developing countries. In this study, the importance and benefits of capacity-building in these countries are emphasized and the advantages and disadvantages that developing countries have in the framework of space technology acquisition are briefly presented. The feasibility of certain levels of space technology is discussed and the necessity of combining existing indigenous capabilities with technology obtained from foreign sources in the optimal way is stressed. We have also mentioned various general mechanisms of technology transfer and argued the importance of licensing in catching-up developed countries. After considering the necessary conditions of efficiency of technology, such as establishment of regional centers of space science and technology education by United Nations, joint development of space systems, complete technology transfer packages, cooperative space projects within regional organizations, coordinated constellations and special agreements with large space agencies, which are specific mechanisms already in use, are reviewed. Some typical examples of mechanisms are also given with special emphasize on small satellite technology that makes access to space affordable for many countries. Through sharing and analyzing the experience of developing countries in their odyssey of space capacity-building, the difficulties can be negotiated and the vicious circles can be broken. This study, in our view, is a step to incite a general discussion of obstacles and opportunities for developing countries, that could help them in using their limited resources effectively, hence, enable them to offer better conditions to their citizens and to contribute space science to a larger extend.     

New flare model using recent measurements of the solar ultraviolet irradiance

The solar photon output from the Sun, which was once thought to be constant, varies considerably over time scales from seconds during solar flares to years due to the solar cycle. This is especially true in the wavelengths shorter than 190 nm. These variations cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environment on similar time scales, which then affects many things including satellite drag, radio communications, atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions of Earth and other planets, as well as the accuracy in the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model that estimates the solar irradiance at wavelengths from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm resolution with a time cadence of 60 s. This is a high enough temporal resolution to model variations due to solar flares, for which few accurate measurements at these wavelengths exist. This model also captures variations on the longer time scales of solar rotation (days) and solar cycle (years). Daily average proxies used are the 0–4 nm irradiance, the Mg II c/w, F10.7, as well as the 1 nm bins centered at 30.5 nm, 121.5 (Lyman Alpha), and 36.5 nm. The GOES 0.1–0.8 nm irradiance is used as the flare proxy. The FISM algorithms are given, and results and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the FISM estimations agree within the stated uncertainties to the various measurements of the solar Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance.     

Medium Earth Orbit dynamical survey and its use in passive debris removal

The Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) region hosts satellites for navigation, communication, and geodetic/space environmental science, among which are the Global Navigation Satellites Systems (GNSS). Safe and efficient removal of debris from MEO is problematic due to the high cost for maneuvers needed to directly reach the Earth (reentry orbits) and the relatively crowded GNSS neighborhood (graveyard orbits). Recent studies have highlighted the complicated secular dynamics in the MEO region, but also the possibility of exploiting these dynamics, for designing removal strategies. In this paper, we present our numerical exploration of the long-term dynamics in MEO, performed with the purpose of unveiling the set of reentry and graveyard solutions that could be reached with maneuvers of reasonable $\mathrm{\Delta }V$ cost. We simulated the dynamics over 120–200?years for an extended grid of millions of fictitious MEO satellites that covered all inclinations from 0 to 90°, using non-averaged equations of motion and a suitable dynamical model that accounted for the principal geopotential terms, 3rd-body perturbations and solar radiation pressure (SRP). We found a sizeable set of usable solutions with reentry times that exceed $～40$ years, mainly around three specific inclination values: 46°, 56°, and 68°; a result compatible with our understanding of MEO secular dynamics. For $\mathrm{\Delta }V?300$ m/s (i.e., achieved if you start from a typical GNSS orbit and target a disposal orbit with $e<0.3$), reentry times from GNSS altitudes exceed $～70$ years, while low-cost ($\mathrm{\Delta }V?5–35$ m/s) graveyard orbits, stable for at lest 200?years, are found for eccentricities up to $e\approx 0.018$. This investigation was carried out in the framework of the EC-funded “ReDSHIFT” project.