Validation of the new trapped environment AE9/AP9/SPM at low Earth orbit

The completion of the international space station (ISS) in 2011 has provided the space research community an ideal proving ground for future long duration human activities in space. Ionizing radiation measurements in ISS form the ideal tool for the validation of radiation environmental models, nuclear transport codes and nuclear reaction cross sections. Indeed, prior measurements on the space transportation system (STS; shuttle) provided vital information impacting both the environmental models and the nuclear transport code developments by indicating the need for an improved dynamic model of the low Earth orbit (LEO) trapped environment. Additional studies using thermo-luminescent detector (TLD), tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) area monitors, and computer aided design (CAD) model of earlier ISS configurations, confirmed STS observations that, as input, computational dosimetry requires an environmental model with dynamic and directional (anisotropic) behavior, as well as an accurate six degree of freedom (DOF) definition of the vehicle attitude and orientation along the orbit of ISS.     

A geomagnetic activity forecast for improving the efficiency of aeromagnetic surveys in Greenland

In recent years several aeromagnetic surveys were carried out in Greenland and more will be carried out in the future. We describe some of the characteristics pertinent to surveys in Greenland and the problems faced and experiences made by the survey teams working there, with special emphasis on the west coast where most surveys were conducted. Both unfavorable terrestrial weather and space weather appear to complicate survey planning. We discuss possible options available to the survey teams for mitigating the adverse effect of part of the problems, namely survey data contamination by intense geomagnetic activity. The implementation of a prototype geomagnetic activity forecast service as an aid to planning survey flights is discussed in more detail. The forecast service was tested by an independent observer, and the performance of the scheme is evaluated by a subsequent comparison between forecast and actual measurements. The comparison rendered largely acceptable results, but their validity is limited by the fact that the two-month test interval was characterized by a mostly relatively quiet magnetic field.     

Why should the latitude of the observer be considered when modeling gradual proton events? An insight using the concept of cobpoint

The shape of flux profiles of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events depends on several not well-understood factors, such as the strength of the associated shock, the relative position of the observer in space with respect to the traveling shock, the existence of a background seed particle population, the interplanetary conditions for particle transport, as well as the particle energy. Here, we focus on two of these factors: the influence of the shock strength and the relative position of the observer. We performed a 3D simulation of the propagation of a coronal/interplanetary CME-driven shock in the framework of ideal MHD modeling. We analyze the passage of this shock by nine spacecraft located at ∼0.4 AU (Mercury’s orbit) and at different longitudes and latitudes. We study the evolution of the plasma conditions in the shock front region magnetically connected to each spacecraft, that is the region of the shock front scanned by the “cobpoint” (Heras et al., 1995), as the shock propagates away from the Sun. Particularly, we discuss the influence of the latitude of the observer on the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles and, hence, on the resulting proton flux profiles to be detected by each spacecraft.     

Forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms

Long-term forecast of space weather allows in achieving a longer lead time for taking the necessary precautions against disturbances. Hence, there is a need for long-term forecasting of space weather. We studied the possibility for a long-term forecast of recurrent geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms recur with an approximate 27-day period during the declining phase of a solar cycle. These disturbances are caused by the passage of corotating interaction regions, which are formed by interactions between the background slow-speed solar wind and high-speed solar wind streams from a coronal hole. In this study, we report on the performance of 27-day-ahead forecasts of the recurrent geomagnetic disturbances using Kp index. The methods of the forecasts are on the basis of persistence, autoregressive model, and categorical forecast using occurrence probability. The forecasts show better performance during the declining phase of a solar cycle than other phases. The categorical forecast shows the probability of detection (POD) more than 0.5 during the declining phase. Transition of the performance occurs sharply among the declining phases and other phases.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

Space Shuttle drops down the SAA doses on ISS

Long-term analysis of data from two radiation detection instruments on the International Space Station (ISS) shows that the docking of the Space Shuttle drops down the measured dose rates in the region of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) by a factor of 1.5–3. Measurements either by the R3DE detector, which is outside the ISS at the EuTEF facility on the Columbus module behind a shielding of less than 0.45 g cm⁻², and by the three detectors of the Liulin-5 particle telescope, which is inside the Russian PEARS module in the spherical tissue equivalent phantom behind much heavier shielding demonstrate that effect. Simultaneously the estimated averaged incident energies of the incoming protons rise up from about 30 to 45 MeV. The effect is explained by the additional shielding against the SAA 30–150 MeV protons, provided by the 78 tons Shuttle to the instruments inside and outside of the ISS. An additional reason is the ISS attitude change (performed for the Shuttle docking) leading to decreasing of dose rates in two of Liulin-5 detectors because of the East–West proton fluxes asymmetry in SAA. The Galactic Cosmic Rays dose rates are practically not affected.     

On the application of Exploratory Data Analysis for characterization of space weather data sets

This paper presents an overview of the mathematical foundations for techniques in Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) for the purpose of investigating the relationships among the numerous variables in large sets of multivariate space weather data. Specifically, we cover techniques in Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Common Factor Analysis (CFA). These techniques are illustrated using space weather activity indices collected during the year 2002 and the corresponding noon-time hmF2 data from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). A CFA is used to categorize the activity indices, and a PCA is used to derive two macro-indices of activity to ascertain the strength of solar and geomagnetic activity. These macro-indices are then used to compare and contrast IRI’s noon-time hmF2 values at six different geographic stations. It was found that the correlation between hmF2 and the macro-indices more accurately represented the variation of this correlation with latitude found in previous studies than if we used an isolated conventional index, such as SSN and AE. We also found that the daily maximum value of the Polar Cap Index was dependent on both solar and geomagnetic activity, but the closely-related cross-Polar Cap Potential was solely associated with elevated levels of geomagnetic activity, which is a unique result compared to previous studies. We argue that the discrepancy can be explained by the difference in experiment designs between the two studies. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of EDA in space weather studies of large multivariate data sets.     

WMAP extragalactic point sources as potential Space VLBI calibrators

The point source list of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) is a uniform, all-sky catalogue of bright sources with flux density measurements at high (up to 94 GHz) radio frequencies. We investigated the five-year WMAP list to compile a new catalogue of bright and compact extragalactic radio sources to be potentially studied with Very Long Baseline Interferometry at millimeter wavelengths (mm-VLBI) and Space VLBI (SVLBI). After comparing the WMAP data with the existing mm-VLBI catalogues, we sorted out the yet unexplored sources. Using the 41, 61 and 94 GHz WMAP flux densities, we calculated the spectral indices. By collecting optical identifications, lower-frequency radio flux densities and VLBI images from the literature, we created a list of objects which have not been investigated with VLBI at 86 GHz before. With total flux density at least 1 Jy and declination above −40°, we found 37 suitable new targets. It is a nearly 25% addition to the known mm-VLBI sources. Such objects are also potentially useful as phase-reference calibrators for the future Japanese SVLBI mission ASTRO-G at its highest observing frequency (43 GHz). The phase-referencing capability of ASTRO-G would allow long integrations and hence better sensitivity for observing faint target sources close to suitable phase calibrators in the sky.     

Time step size and model stiffness in the simulated slew of a tow of square sails

In order to assess space tow solar sail stability and control feasibility, slew simulations are performed for a simplified but dynamically representative km-class tow-like sail of sixteen 25 m square units (10,000 m² total area and 110 kg gross mass) with a 250 kg payload. It is seen that, for the dimensions considered, the space tow concept is structurally sound and its control is feasible. While observed instabilities are identified as numeric in nature and are eliminated accordingly, their very occurrence highlights the need for a refinement of the model for future studies. The analyses are carried out with custom software implementing non-standard implicit-iterative time integration with innovative elements. A new damping model, specifically tailored for the analysis of truly gossamer systems such as solar sails, is also proposed.     

一种评估空间环境下半导体材料损伤的模拟方法

提出了一种模拟空间环境下半导体材料晶格损伤速率的方法, 计算了375km轨道高度不同纬度空间位置的飞行器模型中硅片产生晶格损伤的速率. 本方法考虑了宇宙射线的质子、正负电子、中子和γ射线成分, 建立了简单的多层飞行器结构模型, 并通过模拟给出了芯片上氕、氘、氚、氦、正负电子、正负π介子、γ射线及中子的损伤结果. 相比给出材料中的非电离能量损失, 更进一步给出了晶格损伤的产生速率, 为半导体器件的可靠性评估提供了进一步的参考数据.