基于宽带综合业务数字网／ATM的航天测控网管理系统组成及性能研究

本文根据宽带综合业务数字网／ATM的特点、功能及发展前景，针对我国航天测控网的现状和未来测控任务的需求，提出了我国航天测控网管理系统的构成、管理模式等思想。这些对航天测控网管理系统的发展具有一定的参考价值。     

Mercury’s Atmosphere: A Surface-Bounded Exosphere

The existence of a surface-bounded exosphere about Mercury was discovered through the Mariner 10 airglow and occultation experiments. Most of what is currently known or understood about this very tenuous atmosphere, however, comes from ground-based telescopic observations. It is likely that only a subset of the exospheric constituents have been identified, but their variable abundance with location, time, and space weather events demonstrate that Mercury’s exosphere is part of a complex system involving the planet’s surface, magnetosphere, and the surrounding space environment (the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field). This paper reviews the current hypotheses and supporting observations concerning the processes that form and support the exosphere. The outstanding questions and issues regarding Mercury’s exosphere stem from our current lack of knowledge concerning the surface composition, the magnetic field behavior within the local space environment, and the character of the local space environment.     

One-up on L1: Can X-rays provide longer advanced warning of solar wind flux enhancements than upstream monitors?

Observations of strong solar wind proton flux correlations with ROSAT X-ray rates along with high spectral resolution Chandra observations of X-rays from the dark Moon show that soft X-ray emission mirrors the behavior of the solar wind. In this paper, based on an analysis of an X-ray event observed by XMM-Newton resulting from charge exchange of high charge state solar wind ions and contemporaneous neutral solar wind data, we argue that X-ray observations may be able to provide reliable advance warning, perhaps by as much as half a day, of dramatic increases in solar wind flux at Earth. Like neutral atom imaging, this provides the capability to monitor the solar wind remotely rather than in situ.     

Forecasting of DST variations from polar cap indices using neural networks

The 15-min averaged polar cap (PC) index was used as an input parameter for the Dst variation forecasting. The PC index is known to describe well the principal features of the solar wind as well as the total energy input to the magnetosphere. This allowed us to design a neural network able to forecast the Dst variations from 1 to 4 h ahead. 1998 PC and Dst data sets were used for training and testing and 1997 data sets was used for validation proposes. From the 15 moderate and strong geomagnetic storms observed during 1997, nine were successfully forecasted. In three cases the observed minimum Dst value was less than the predicted one, and only in three cases the neural network was not able to reproduce the features of the geomagnetic storm.     

Space weather in Japan

In Japan, Communications Research Laboratory engages in operational space environment information services as National Forecasting Center and Regional Warning Center of ISES. Data from local observations and data collected via internet from domestic and foreign institutes are used for the daily operational forecast. Fundamental research on space weather issues has been carried out at several institutes and universities, including STE Laboratory and NASDA. In this presentation, an overview of current space weather forecast operations and a system for information outreach in Japan will be presented. Current and future observation programs from ground-base and space will be also briefly reviewed.     

弹丸撞击防护屏形成碎片云速度特性研究

微流星及空间碎片的高速撞击威胁着长寿命，大尺寸航天器的安全运行，导致其严重的损伤和灾难性的失效，为精确估计微流星及空间碎片主速撞击防护屏产生的碎片对舱壁的损伤，必须确定碎片云速度特性。文章在冲量和能量守恒的基础上，建立了碎片速度性分析模型，研究了碎片云的速度特性，得到了碎片云材料传播及碎片云喷射角随弹丸撞击速度的变化规律。     

空间站大型伸展机构动力学研究中的若干问题

由于空间站大型伸展机构运动中的时变性，其拓扑构形和系统的自由度都是变化着的，因而问题较定常构形动力学问题复杂得多。文章对航天伸展机构进行分类，并研究所组成的各类运行副，约束特点和约束方程及轨道、姿态、伸展运动的几何和运动描述；考虑柔性结构效应及热变形的动力学分析模型；还对连接间隙、摩擦、限位内碰撞、预应力、重力场及空气阻力的干扰进行分析；最后讨论了试验研究结论。     

太阳高能电子束通过空间振荡轴向场产生的电磁不稳定性

本文基于太阳高能电子和日冕区开放场及行星际磁场特征，建立了相对论电子束与伴有空间变化（空间周期变化）的轴向场相互作用模型，用数值方法研究了该体系产生的电磁不稳定性，结果指出只有当太阳高能电子束速度和空间振荡场波数大到一定程度时，该体系才可激发在旋电磁模不稳定性，当太阳高能电子束逐一通过日冕和行星际空间时，激发具有波频向低频漂移特征的电磁波．     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.