Comparative study of foF2 measurements with IRI-2007 model predictions during extended solar minimum

The unusually deep and extended solar minimum of cycle 23/24 made it very difficult to predict the solar indices 1 or 2 years into the future. Most of the predictions were proven wrong by the actual observed indices. IRI gets its solar, magnetic, and ionospheric indices from an indices file that is updated twice a year. In recent years, due to the unusual solar minimum, predictions had to be corrected downward with every new indices update. In this paper we analyse how much the uncertainties in the predictability of solar activity indices affect the IRI outcome and how the IRI values calculated with predicted and observed indices compared to the actual measurements. Monthly median values of F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) derived from the ionosonde measurements at the mid-latitude ionospheric station Juliusruh were compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model predictions. The analysis found that IRI provides reliable results that compare well with actual measurements, when the definite (observed and adjusted) indices of solar activity are used, while IRI values based on earlier predictions of these indices noticeably overestimated the measurements during the solar minimum. One of the principal objectives of this paper is to direct attention of IRI users to update their solar activity indices files regularly. Use of an older index file can lead to serious IRI overestimations of F-region electron density during the recent extended solar minimum.     

Determination of the threshold value of F10.7 in the dependence of foF2 on solar activity

By introducing the two-segmented linear regression model instead of the well known quadratic fit, we were able to describe the solar activity dependence of the F2 critical frequency. Saturation features were observed and the corresponding F10.7 values at which this phenomenon occurs were obtained for different hours. The seasonal average values were found to be around 154 sfu, 138 sfu, 177 sfu and 150 sfu for March equinox, June solstice, September equinox and December solstice respectively. These affirmed that saturation phenomenon is more pronounced at the equinoxes than solstices. On the average, the threshold value of F10.7 was obtained to be 154.5 sfu for this station in the African sector of the equatorial region.     

ULF wave index as magnetospheric and space-weather parameters

Waves in the Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) band owe their existence to solar wind turbulence and transport momentum and energy from the solar wind to the magnetosphere and farther down. Therefore an index based on ULF wave power could better characterize solar wind–magnetosphere interaction than K_P, Dst, AE, etc. indices which described mainly quasi-study state condition of the system. We have shown that the ULF wave index accurately characterize relativistic electron dynamics in the magnetosphere as these waves are closely associated with circulation, diffusion and energization of relativistic electrons in the magnetosphere. High speed solar wind streams also act as a significant driver of activity in the Earth’s magnetosphere co-rotating interaction region and are responsible for geomagnetic activities. In the present paper, we have analyzed various cases related with very weak (quiet) days, weak days, storm days and eclipse events and discussed the utility of the ULF wave index to explain the magnetospheric dynamics and associated properties. We have tried to explain that the ULF wave index can equally be useful as a space weather parameter like the other indices.     

Performance of the IRI-2007 model for equatorial topside ion density in the African sector for low and extremely low solar activity

The recent availability of new data sets during the recent extreme solar minimum provides an opportunity for testing the performance of the International Reference Ionosphere in historically undersampled regions. This study presents averages and variability of topside ionospheric densities over Africa as a function of season, local time, altitude, and magnetic dip latitude as measured by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite. The results are compared to the three topside model options available in IRI-2007. Overall, the NeQuick model is found to have the best performance, though during the deepest part of the solar minimum all three options significantly overestimate density.     

Ion production and ionization effect in the atmosphere during the Bastille day GLE 59 due to high energy SEPs

The influence of high energy particles, specifically cosmic rays, on atmospheric physics and chemistry is highly discussed. In most of the proposed models the role of ionization in the atmosphere due to cosmic rays is not negligible. Moreover, effect(s) on minor constituents and aerosols are recently observed, specifically over the polar regions during strong solar particle events. According to the recent findings for such effects it is necessary an essential increase of ion production, specifically during the winter period. The galactic cosmic rays are the main source of ionization in the Earth’s stratosphere and troposphere. Occasionally, the atmospheric ionization is significantly enhanced during strong solar energetic particles events, specifically over the polar caps. During the solar cycle 23 several strong ground level enhancements were observed. One of the strongest was the Bastille day event occurred on 14 July 2000. Using a full Monte Carlo 3-D model, we compute the atmospheric ionization, considering explicitly the contribution of cosmic rays with galactic and solar origin, focusing on high energy particles. The model is based on atmospheric cascade simulation with the PLANETOCOSMICS code. The ion production rate is computed as a function of the altitude above the sea level. The ion production rate is computed on a step ranging from 10 to 30?min throughout the event, considering explicitly the spectral and angular characteristics of the high energy part of solar protons as well as their time evolution. The corresponding event averaged ionization effect relative to the average due to galactic cosmic rays is computed in lower stratosphere and upper troposphere at various altitudes, namely 20?km, 15?km, 12?km and 8?km above the sea level in a sub-polar and polar regions. The 24^h and the weekly ionization effects are also computed in the troposphere and low stratosphere. Several applications are discussed.     

耐150 ℃太阳翼基板结构胶黏剂性能研究

介绍了一种J-159结构胶黏剂,用于太阳翼基板结构的板-芯胶接,重点进行了胶黏剂的力学性能、真空挥发性能、耐辐照性能研究,同时开展了典型件的制备及热真空循环试验。结果表明,J-159胶黏剂在150℃下各项力学性能保持率均56%,远高于常用的J-47胶黏剂,具有很好的耐高温性能。同时,真空挥发性能和耐带电粒子辐照性能满足航天器空间应用要求,制备的典型件在-105～+150℃热真空循环试验后,外观质量、胶接质量及其他性能均符合指标要求,能够满足卫星太阳翼基板耐150℃及以下空间环境的使用需求。     

国产高模碳纤维/环氧复合材料的太阳电池板热循环适应性研究

国产CCM40J-6K高模碳纤维基板的空间高低温热循环耐受性是决定其是否可以大规模应用于空间太阳电池板的关键因素,必须解决交变热环境下的面板与电池电路的匹配性和长寿命问题。本文以国产CCM40J-6K高模碳纤维/环氧复合材料的太阳电池板为研究对象,开展了热循环环境适应性试验研究,分别从国产和进口碳纤维基板适应高低温交变能力对比、国产碳纤维基板铺设电池电路后适应热环境能力以及电池板在轨寿命等3个方面进行测试试验。结果表明：国产碳纤维CCM40J-6K所构成的电池板综合性能与进口M40JB-6K相当,CCM40J-6K基板与三结砷化镓电池片匹配性良好,国产碳纤维电池板经疲劳热循环后的开路电压和短路电流的变化率分别为0.55%和0.24%,太阳电池片和玻璃盖片外观完好无损,太阳电池电路与基板聚酰亚胺面保持绝缘,且碳纤维表面无脱粘现象。说明国产碳纤维CCM40J-6K能够应用于太阳电池板研制。     

Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind

When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind (SW) streams at 1 AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes (BOMT) on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko[4]. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth's orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤ 24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830 A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity vm of the stream is ±15%.      

一个基于观测的太阳风背景模型

建立由太阳光球磁场和日冕偏振亮度等观测约束的单流体太阳风模型,包括日冕和太阳风的等离子体密度、速度和磁场,温度还有待于以后处理.这里采用高山观测台(HAO)MKⅢ的日冕偏振亮度(pB)在1.36Rs上的观测概图,根据Guhathakurta在1996年发展的日冕电子密度反演模型确定日冕的电子密度分布.同时采用Wilcox太阳观测台(WSO)的光球磁场视向分量的观测概图作为底部边界,根据Zhao等在1994年发展的水平电流-电流片(HCCS)模型得到全球磁场.Phillips在1995年及McComas在2003年分别用Ulysses第一次和第二次跨极飞行的观测发现,归一化到1 AU的太阳风动量流密度除了在10°～30°的纬度范围内略低以外几乎不变.根据这一结论,结合已经得到的密度数据,就可以得到日冕和太阳风的速度.将上面的模型应用于1918卡林顿自转周稳态太阳风的研究,结果与太阳活动极小期的观测基本相符,但是与观测相比较低速高密度区偏大,因此密度模型还有待改进.      

午后极光强度与太阳风-磁层耦合函数的相关

利用1997年和1998年南极中山站多通道扫描光度计的地面观测数据和Wind卫星在弓激波上游对行星际磁场和太阳风参数的观测数据,对午后高纬极光强度与太阳风-磁层耦合函数之间的相关性进行定量研究.研究表明,午后630.0nm极光强度与太阳风-磁层耦合函数间有很好的相关,而557.7nm的相关性差一些;在考察的所有耦合函数中,午后极光受太阳风电场和能量的影响更直接;同时,行星际磁场的时钟角对午后极光也有很强的控制作用.