Sunspot cycle prediction using Warped Gaussian process regression

Solar cycle prediction is a key activity in space weather research. Several techniques have been employed in recent decades in order to try to forecast the next sunspot-cycle maxima and time. In this work, the Gaussian process, a machine-learning technique, is used to make a prediction for the solar cycle 25 based on the annual sunspot number 2.0 data from 1700 to 2018. A variation known as Warped Gaussian process is employed in order to deal with the non-negativity constraint and asymmetrical data distribution. Tests using holdout data yielded a root mean square error of 10.0 within 5 years and 25.0–35.0 within 10 years. Simulations using the predictive distribution were performed to account for the uncertainty in the prediction. Cycle 25 is expected to last from 2019 to 2029, with a peak sunspot number about 117 (110 by the median) occurring most likely in 2024. Thus our method predicts that solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than previous ones, implying a continuing trend of declining solar activity as observed in the past two cycles.     

Change in the rigidity dependence of the galactic cosmic ray modulation in 2008–2009

Observations of charged particle fluxes in the stratosphere of the polar regions represent the cosmic rays variations with energy above 100 MeV. At the end of 2009 these fluxes reached the highest level for the time of observations from mid 1957 and were by 17% higher than the previous extremum value of May 1965. In the mean time the ground-based neutron monitors showed the remarkably less count rate enhancement. These results argue for the significant change in the energy spectrum of incoming particles in 2008–2009 in the energy range of ∼100–1500 MeV/n.     

Response of the Earth’s lower ionosphere to the Ground Level Enhancement event of December 13, 2006

In this study we analyze the Ground Level Enhancement Event No 70 observed on December 13, 2006, by correlating the observations from two research topics: Cosmic rays and Very Low Frequency (VLF < 30 kHz) wave propagation, as two ground based techniques for the detection of solar proton events, and their impact on the lower ionosphere. The observations have been endorsed from recordings of worldwide network ground based Neutron Monitors as well as by satellite data from the satellites GOES 12 (www.swpc.noaa.gov) and Pamela (www.pamela.roma2infn.it).     

Time distribution of the precipitable water vapor in central Saudi Arabia and its relationship to solar activity

Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. It plays a major role in the dynamics of atmospheric circulation, radiation exchange within the atmosphere, and climate variability. Knowledge of the distribution of water vapor is important for understanding climate change and global warming.     

Ionospheric disturbances under low solar activity conditions

The paper is focused on ionospheric response to occasional magnetic disturbances above selected ionospheric stations located at middle latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere under extremely low solar activity conditions of 2007–2009. We analyzed changes in the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the F2 layer peak height hmF2 against 27-days running mean obtained for different longitudinal sectors of both hemispheres for the initial, main and recovery phases of selected magnetic disturbances. Our analysis showed that the effects on the middle latitude ionosphere of weak-to-moderate CIR-related magnetic storms, which mostly occur around solar minimum period, could be comparable with the effects of strong magnetic storms. In general, both positive and negative deviations of foF2 and hmF2 have been observed independent on season and location. However positive effects on foF2 prevailed and were more significant. Observations of stormy ionosphere also showed large departures from the climatology within storm recovery phase, which are comparable with those usually observed during the storm main phase. The IRI STORM model gave no reliable corrections of foF2 for analyzed events.     

Transient variations of vertical total electron content over some African stations from 2002 to 2012

This paper presents the vertical total electron content vTEC variations for three African stations, located at mid-low and equatorial latitudes, and operating since more than 10 years. The vTEC of the middle latitude GPS station in Alexandria, Egypt (31.2167°N; 29.9667°E, geographic) is compared to the vTEC of two others GPS stations: the first one in Rabat/Morocco (33.9981°N; 353.1457°E, geographic), and the second in Libreville/Gabon (0.3539°N; 9.6721°E, geographic). Our results discussed the diurnal, seasonal, and solar cycle dependences of vTEC at the local ionospheric conditions, during different phases of solar cycle in the light of the classification of Legrand and Simon. The vTEC over Alexandria exhibits the well-known equinoctial asymmetry which changes with the phases of the solar cycle; the spring vTEC is larger than that of autumn during the maximum, decreasing and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. During the increasing phase of solar cycle 24, it is the contrary. The diurnal variation of the vTEC presents multiple maxima during the equinox from 2005 to 2008 and during the summer solstice from 2006 to 2012. A nighttime vTEC enhancement and winter anomaly are also observed. During the deep solar minimum (2006–2009) the diurnal variation of the vTEC observed over Alexandria is similar to the diurnal variation observed during quiet magnetic period at equatorial latitudes. We observed also that the amplitude of vTEC at Libreville is larger than the amplitude of vTEC observed at Alexandria and Rabat, indeed Libreville is near the southern crest of the Equatorial Ionization anomaly. Finally, the correlation coefficient between vTEC and the sunspot number Rz is high and changes with solar cycle phases.     

2009年7月22日日全食电离层效应观测

首次利用廊坊中频雷达和武汉、嘉兴、廊坊等三站GPS对2009年7月22日日全食电离层效应进行了观测．日食期间,中频雷达D层78km高度上电子密度减小了约67％,电子密度为200cm^-3的高度上升了近10km,GPS／TEC减小了1TECU左右,其变化的最大相位与日食最大相位几乎同步;日食后,观测到周期为2个多小时的电离层扰动现象．     

Contribution of geometry of interaction between interplanetary and terrestrial magnetic fields into global magnetospheric state and geomagnetic activity

The paper presents results of our study of dependence of geomagnetic activity from geoeffective parameters taking into account mutual orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field, electric field of the solar wind and geomagnetic moment. We attract a reconnection model elaborated by us made allowance for changes of geometry of the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction during annual and diurnal motions of the Earth. We take as our data base the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind velocity measured at 1 a.u. at ecliptic plane for the period of 1963–2005 and K_p, D_st, a_m indices. Taken as a whole a geoeffective parameter suggested by us explains 95% of observed variations of the indices. Changes of the geometric factor determined by mutual orientation of the solar wind electric field and geomagnetic moment explain larger than 75% of observed statistical variations of D_st and a_m indices. Based on our results we suggest a new explanation of semi-annual and UT variation of geomagnetic activity.     

Birthdates of patients affected by mental illness and solar activity: A study from Italy

Purpose

This epidemiologic study tested an hypothesized association between the year of birth of persons with major mental illnesses and solar activity over the past century.

Methods

We collected data on diagnoses and birthdates of psychiatric patients born between 1926 and 1975 (N = 1954) in south Italy for comparison to yearly solar activity as registered by the International Observatories.

Results

We found a strong inverse correlation between high solar activity (HSA) and incidence of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in a 20-year period whereas the incidence of non-affective/non-psychotic disorders was moderately associated with HSA in the same period.

Conclusions

Interpretation of the observed correlations between HSA during years of birth and the incidence of mental illnesses remains unclear, but the findings encourage further study.