太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅱ)

太阳活动指数中期预报一直是空间环境业务预报的难点之一.本文在自回归方法模型的基础上,利用太阳活动区面积、位置等参数与10.7cm辐射流量之间的定量关系,根据活动区面积衰减规律,建立了一个基于活动区参数及演化规律的改进型太阳活动指数中期预报模型.通过对预报测试实例分析发现,在日面出现较大活动区导致F_(10.7)迅速增长并超过历史数据峰值的情况,在日面活动区消亡导致指数突然出现平静期的情况,新模型的预报准确性相比自回归模型有很大提高,预报的平均相对误差下降约5%～9%.由此可见,新模型在某些特定条件下提高了原有模型的精度.该研究为提高业务型太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型的预报精度奠定了基础.     

Variation of ionospheric electron and ion temperatures during periods of minimum to maximum solar activity by the SROSS-C2 satellite over Indian low and equatorial latitudes

To study the variation of ionospheric electron and ion temperatures with solar activity the data of electron and ion temperatures were recorded with the help of Retarding Potential Analyzer payload aboard Indian SROSS-C2 satellite at an average altitude of ∼500 km. The main focuses of the paper is to see the diurnal, seasonal and latitudinal variations of electron and ion temperatures during periods of minimum to maximum solar activity. The ionospheric temperatures in the topside show strong variations with altitude, latitude, season and solar activity. In present study, the temperature variations with latitude, season and solar activity have been studied at an average altitude ∼500 km. The peak at sunrise has been observed during all seasons, in both electron and ion temperatures. Further, the ionospheric temperatures vary with latitude in day time. The latitudinal variation is more pronounced for low solar activity than for high solar activity.     

Simultaneous observations of the plasma density on the same field line by the CPMN ground magnetometers and the Cluster satellites

By applying the cross-phase method and the amplitude-ratio method to magnetic field data obtained from two ground stations located close to each other, we can determine the frequency of the field line resonance (FLR), or the field line eigenfrequency, for the field line running through the midpoint of the two stations. From thus identified FLR frequency we can estimate the equatorial plasma mass density (ρ)$(\rho )$ by using the T05s magnetospheric field model [Tsyganenko, N.A., Sitnov, M.I. Modeling the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere during strong geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res. 110, A03208, 2005] and the equation of Singer et al. [Singer, H.J., Southwood, D.J., Walker, R.J., Kivelson, M.G. Alfven wave resonances in a realistic magnetospheric magnetic field geometry, J. Geophys. Res. 86 (A6) 4589–4596, 1981].     

Evidence of change after 2001 in the seasonal behaviour of the mesopause region from airglow data at El Leoncito

Airglow intensities and rotational temperatures of the OH(6-2) and O₂b(0-1) bands acquired at El Leoncito (32°S, 69°W) provide good annual coverage in 1998–2002, 2006, and 2007, with between 192 and 311 nights of observation per year. These data can therefore be used to derive the seasonal variations during each of these seven years, in airglow brightness and temperatures at altitudes of 87 and 95 km. From 1998 to 2001, seasonal variations are similar enough so that they can be well represented by a mean climatology, for each parameter. On the other hand, these climatologies do not agree with what is usually observed at other sites, maybe due to the particular orographic conditions at El Leoncito. With respect to the last three fully documented years (2002, 2006, and 2007), the similarity from year to year deteriorates, and there are greater differences in the seasonal behaviour, more or less in all the parameters. The differences include, e.g., maxima occurring earlier or later than “normal”, by one or two months. All this may suggest the build-up of a new regime of intraseasonal variability, with a possible relationship to corresponding changes in wave activity.     

体-翼干扰区热环境特性分析及预测

高速飞行器的体—翼干扰区热流精确预测对于飞行器生存能力与战术性能的提高具有重要的 意义,是高性能飞行器设计水平的一个重要标志。由于体—翼干扰区流场的复杂性,目前尚 无满足工程设计要求的热环境预测方法,在分析体—翼流场特性的基础上应用文献［1 ］的压力—热流关系式,提出体—翼干扰区的热流预测方法,即压力由N-S数值解给出,热 流应用压力—热流关系式得到,炮风洞的实验结果验证了本文预测方法的可 靠性 。
     

活动区新浮磁流和暗条的激活

用数值计算方法探讨了新浮磁流驱动下暗条运动的基本规律。计算表明,活动区新浮磁流是驱动暗条运动导致暗条激活的有效机制之一,这个过程是通过暗条电流和背景磁场的相互作用来实现的。当选取不同强度的浮现磁流时,暗条可出现周期性振荡、激活上升和闪烁;此外,对同极性磁流浮现,当浮现强度足够强时,暗条一开始就会下沉。      

流动对太阳黑子精细结构的影响

考虑磁扩散率为温度的函数以及绝热条件,线性扰动磁流力学方程组的色散方程是频率的三次方程。由于沿磁场流动的速度u₀小于声速u_s,即ε=u₀2/u_s2是一个小量,在零级近似下解色散方程,得到了磁扩散不稳定性。本文进一步讨论在一级近似下小流动对磁扩散不稳定性的影响。结果表明,小流动不破坏磁扩散不稳定性的存在,并且,它对波数空间中的不稳定区也影响不大。      

基于Gabor滤波器的航空图像居民区域提取

中低分辨率航空图像中居民区域的自动提取对地理信息系统更新和无人机导航具有重要作用.详细分析了Gabor滤波器参数对纹理提取的影响,提出了一种基于Gabor滤波器的居民区快速提取算法.算法包含4步:运用Gabor滤波器分析图像纹理,采用核密度估计生成居民区域置信图像,进而计算自适应阈值分割置信图得到候选区域,最后根据区域几何形状去除干扰得到居民区.算法平均运算时间为0.42s,实验结果表明了算法的高效性和准确性.     

舰空导弹发射时间窗解算模型仿真

介绍了舰空导弹发射时间窗的概念和舰空导弹杀伤区、发射区的形状和参数,在舰空导弹发射区解算的基础上,对时间窗的解算进行了数学建模,其目的是将结果作为目标威胁评估的一个指标和确定舰空导弹的发射时机。为了使时间窗解算具有实时性和合理性,在解算中考虑了来袭目标机动的影响,采用MATLAB对所建模型进行了仿真计算。仿真结果表明,所得数据可作为舰空导弹对来袭目标的威胁评估和目标分配的依据,指导防空作战指挥决策。     

What are the physical mechanisms of eruptions and CMEs?

CMEs are due to physical phenomena that drive both, eruptions and flares in active regions. Eruptions/CMEs must be driven from initially force-free current-carrying magnetic field. Twisted flux ropes, sigmoids, current lanes and pattern in photospheric current maps show a clear evidence of currents parallel to the magnetic field. Eruptions occur starting from equilibria which have reached some instability threshold. Revisiting several data sets of CME observations we identified different mechanisms leading to this unstable state from a force free field. Boundary motions related to magnetic flux emergence and shearing favor the increase of coronal currents leading to the large flares of November 2003. On the other hand, we demonstrated by numerical simulations that magnetic flux emergence is not a sufficient condition for eruptions. Filament eruptions are interpreted either by a torus instability for an event occurring during the minimum of solar activity either by the diffusion of the magnetic flux reducing the tension of the restraining arcade. We concluded that CME models (tether cutting, break out, loss of equilibrium models) are based on these basic mechanisms for the onset of CMEs.