Study on segmented distribution for reliability evaluation

In practice, the failure rate of most equipment exhibits different tendencies at different stages and even its failure rate curve behaves a multimodal trace during its life cycle. As a result, traditionally evaluating the reliability of equipment with a single model may lead to severer errors. However, if lifetime is divided into several different intervals according to the characteristics of its failure rate, piecewise fitting can more accurately approximate the failure rate of equipment. There-fore, in this paper, failure rate is regarded as a piecewise function, and two kinds of segmented dis-tribution are put forward to evaluate reliability. In order to estimate parameters in the segmented reliability function, Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the seg-mented distribution are discussed in this paper. Since traditional information criterion is not suit-able for the segmented distribution, an improved information criterion is proposed to test and evaluate the segmented reliability model in this paper. After a great deal of testing and verification, the segmented reliability model and its estimation methods presented in this paper are proven more efficient and accurate than the traditional non-segmented single model, especially when the change of the failure rate is time-phased or multimodal. The significant performance of the segmented reli-ability model in evaluating reliability of proximity sensors of leading-edge flap in civil aircraft indi-cates that the segmented distribution and its estimation method in this paper could be useful and accurate.     

区域管制安全绩效考核综合评估研究

区域管制系统用来保证航空器航路阶段的飞行安全,安全绩效考核可以促进区域管制系统安全水平的提高.通过分析区域管制系统的运行过程和安全绩效的影响因素,建立安全绩效考核的指标体系,利用将三角模糊函数和层次分析法相结合的方法进行指标权重赋值,建立区分结果和过程的安全绩效综合评估模型,并对某地区空管局区域管制系统进行实例验证.结果表明:利用该安全绩效综合评估模型对区域管制系统进行安全绩效考核所得出的结果合理有效,不仅能够反映阶段时间内的安全管理工作效果,同时可以体现安全管理工作过程,可为安全管理的后续工作提供决策依据.     

亚表面缺陷脉冲相位热成像检测技术

对脉冲相位热成像技术应用于亚表面缺陷的检测进行了实验研究,给出了铝合金和聚合物两种典型的金属和非金属试件的检测结果,并同传统红外热成像检测的对比度图像进行了对比。还对脉冲相位热成像检测技术中频谱分析的有关问题进行了分析,指出选择采集频率、采集窗口大小要考虑的影响因素,并分别采用组合平滑滤波、分段拟合的方法改善了相位变换的实际效果。结果表明脉冲相位辐射测量技术与一般光热辐射测量相比,测量结果明显改善,增强探测缺陷特别是深度缺陷的能力,减小加热不均等表面因素对测量的影响。     

Data-driven reliability analysis of Boeing 787 Dreamliner

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner, launched in 2011, was presented as a game changer in air travel. With the aim of producing an efficient, mid-size, wide-body plane, Boeing initiated innovations in product and process design, supply chain operation, and risk management. Nevertheless, there were reliability issues from the start, and the plane was grounded by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 2013, due to safety problems associated with Li-ion battery fires. This paper chronicles events associated with the aircraft’s initial reliability challenges. The manufacturing, supply chain, and organizational factors that contributed to these problems are assessed based on FAA data. Recommendations and lessons learned are provided for the benefit of engineers and managers who will be engaged in future complex systems development.     

一种新型高可靠性箭上配电控制器设计

针对传统箭上配电器在新应用时期下产生的问题，设计了一种基于MOSFET的供配电开关和基于采样电阻进行电流采集的新型高可靠性箭上遥测配电控制器，解决了传统继电控制器触点大电流冲击粘连问题，实现了新形势下的全国产化、小型化设计要求，进一步提高了系统可靠性，具有广泛的应用推广性。     

Reliability estimation of rotary lip seal in aircraft utility system based on time-varying dependence degradation model and its experimental validation

With several attractive properties, rotary lip seals are widely used in aircraft utility system, and their reliability estimation has drawn more and more attention. This work proposes a reliability estimation approach based on time-varying dependence analysis. The dependence between the two performance indicators of rotary lip seals, namely leakage rate and friction torque, is modeled by time-varying copula function with polynomial to denote the time-varying parameters, and an efficient copula selection approach is utilized to select the optimal copula function. Parameter estimation is carried out based on a Bayesian method and the reliability during the whole lifetime is calculated based on a Monte Carlo method. Degradation test for rotary lip seal is conducted and the proposed model is validated by test data. The optimal copula function and optimal order of polynomial are determined based on test data. Results show that this model is effective in estimating the reliability of rotary lip seals and can achieve a better goodness of fit.     

A multi-constraints based pose coordination model for large volume components assembly

In the assembly process of large volume product, engineering constraints limit the relative pose of components and serve as a standard for judging assembly quality. However, in the traditional process of target pose estimation, a general method is needed for establishing the correlation between engineering constraints and product pose, and it is difficult to evaluate pose by constraints comprehensively. Therefore, the process of target pose estimation and evaluation is separated. In this paper, a pose coordination model based on multi-constraints is proposed, which includes pre-processing, pose estimation, pose adjustment and evaluation. Firstly, engineering constraints are decoupled into 4 types of Minimum Geometrical Reference Constraints (MGRC), and the inequalities for solving target pose are formulated. Then the Constraint Coordination Index (CCI) is defined as the optimization objective to solve the target pose. Finally, with CCI as the numerical index, the target pose is evaluated to illustrate the quality of assembly. Taking the simulation experiment of wing-fuselage jointing as an example, the external and internal parameters of model are analyzed, and the pose estimation based on multi-constraints reduces the CCI by 12%, compared with the point-set-registration method.     

Reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis of structure by combining adaptive linked importance sampling and Kriging reliability method

The application of reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis methods to complicated structures faces two main challenges: small failure probability (typical less than 10⁻⁵) and time-demanding mechanical models. This paper proposes an improved active learning surrogate model method, which combines the advantages of the classical Active Kriging – Monte Carlo Simulation (AK-MCS) procedure and the Adaptive Linked Importance Sampling (ALIS) procedure. The proposed procedure can, on the one hand, adaptively produce a series of intermediate sampling density approaching the quasi-optimal Importance Sampling (IS) density, on the other hand, adaptively generate a set of intermediate surrogate models approaching the true failure surface of the rare failure event. Then, the small failure probability and the corresponding reliability sensitivity indices are efficiently estimated by their IS estimators based on the quasi-optimal IS density and the surrogate models. Compared with the classical AK-MCS and Active Kriging – Importance Sampling (AK-IS) procedure, the proposed method neither need to build very large sample pool even when the failure probability is extremely small, nor need to estimate the Most Probable Points (MPPs), thus it is computationally more efficient and more applicable especially for problems with multiple MPPs. The effectiveness and engineering applicability of the proposed method are demonstrated by one numerical test example and two engineering applications.     

基于位姿测量不确定度的飞机对接质量评估

针对基于位姿的数字化测量辅助飞机大部件对接技术的发展与应用,对位姿测量不确定度以及基于不确定度的质量评价方法进行了研究.给出了数字化对接环境下大部件位姿的数学表达形式及意义.提出了基于协方差矩阵的位姿测量不确定度解析算法,并通过仿真算例与蒙特卡洛仿真法进行了对比,验证了该算法的有效性.给出了飞机大部件对接过程数字化测量工艺能力指数的概念,用于对测量结果的可信性进行评价;通过构建位姿测量不确定度与对接质量评估指标间的映射关系,提出了一种基于位姿测量不确定度的大部件对接质量评估方法,并以机翼-机身对接过程为案例,对方法的可行性、算法的有效性进行了验证.