Efficient adaptive Kriging for system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes under random and interval hybrid uncertainty

In the field of the system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes, the advances mainly involve only random uncertainty. The upper bound of the system failure probability with multiple failure modes is usually employed to quantify the safety level under Random and Interval Hybrid Uncertainty(RI-HU). At present, there is a lack of an efficient and accurate method for estimating the upper bound of the system failure probability. This paper proposed an efficient Kriging model based on nume...     

一种基于FPGA用游标法实现的时间间隔测定器

文中介绍时间间隔的测量原理和游标法的测时原理,针对一种基于FPGA的高精度测时系统,描述其硬件实现。该系统利用粗测与细测相结合来测量两个脉冲信号之间的时间间隔,其测时分辨率可达到1ns。系统具有精度高、功耗小及实现简便等优点。     

常用预测方法应用分析

本文针对GM（1，1）的预测方法，介绍了其原息模型、新息模型和等维新息模型的建摸方法，比较分析了基于GM（1，1）的各种预测模型应用的可靠性问题。     

Space Environment Prediction for SZ-4 and SZ-5

The Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) of the Center for Space Science and Applied Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CSSAR, CAS)took on the mission of offering the space environment parameters which may be of use to the safety of manned spacecraft. In order to complete the space environment safety guarantee mission for SZ-4 and SZ-5, SEPC improved the space environment monitoring system, database system, prediction result display system, prediction implementation system, etc. For guaranteeing the safety of the airship and cosmonaut in the first manned SZ-5, flying experiment mission,SEPC developed the software for analyzing radiation dose and early-warning software for large debris collision with SZ-5. Three months before the flights of SZ-4 and SZ-5, SEPC began to predict the safe launch period in view of the space environment, and offered timely and valid reference opinions for selecting the safety period. Especially during the mission of SZ-5, SEPC analyzed the space high-energy environment in a pre-arranged orbit and abnormal orbit andevaluated the radiation dose which cosmonauts may encounter in space. The evaluation offered an important reference for cosmonaut safety and decisionmaking in the SZ-5 mission. The calculation of the distribution of large debris and the collision risk assessment at different orbit entry times for SZ-5 provided an important base for the superior department to make flight decisions.     

Prediction of ionospheric total electron content using adaptive neural network with in-situ learning algorithm

The Ionospheric Total Electron Content is responsible for the group delay of the signals from the Navigation satellites. This delay causes ranging error, which in turn degrades the accuracy of position estimated by the receivers. For critical applications, single frequency receivers resort to Satellite Based Augmentation Systems in order to have improved accuracy and integrity. The performance of these systems in terms of accuracy can be improved if predictions of the delays are available simultaneously with real measurements. This paper attempts to predict the Total Electron Content using adaptive recurrent Neural Network at three different locations of India. These locations are selected at the magnetic equator, at the equatorial anomaly crest and outside the anomaly range, respectively. In-situ Learning Algorithm has been used for tracking the non-stationary nature of the variation. Prediction is done for different prediction intervals. It is observed that, for each case, the mean and root mean square values of prediction errors remain small enough for all practical applications. Analysis of Variance is also done on the results.     

基于灰度预测的无刷直流电机控制

针对传统PID控制器抗干扰能力差，参数调节繁琐等问题，提出了灰度预测控制器。对灰度预测算法进行了详细的理论分析和数学建模，利用最速梯度法对控制器参数进行调整，设计了参数自适应调整的控制器；对飞轮使用的无刷直流电机进行了较为准确的模型建立，并在此基础上设计了基于灰度预测控制器的电机控制仿真模型。通过仿真分析了两种控制器在正常加速和受到干扰两种情况下的不同表现，验证了灰度预测控制器在调节效果和稳定性等方面的优越性。     

直升机维修任务优化设计技术研究

本文通过对某海军型号保障性技术的应用研究,在"以可靠性为中心"的维修分析(RCMA)的基础上,阐述了以安全性和经济性为目标约束,优化确定维修间隔期的方法和数学模型,为后续型号研制更加深入地应用保障性技术确定维修保障时间奠定了基础.     

含不确定参数的复合材料板振动的 区间分析法

提出了求解具有不确定参数的复合材料板的振动固有频率区间分析法.区间分析法利用区间数学和泰勒定理,把不确定变量简化为区间向量.这样可以在较少的结构信息的情况下确定结构响应的变化区间.在样本比较小,概率统计特性缺乏,从而通常的概率统计方法不能有效应用时,区间分析仍然有效. 对复合材料板的振动固有频率的区间法公式进行了推导,并用2个数值例子与凸模型方法的解进行比较.结果表明区间分析法比凸模型方法的解区间小.      

结构振动的鲁棒可靠性

以传统的结构振动概率设计方法为基础,用区间集(超长方体)将不确定变量定量化,降低了传统的概率统计方法对统计特性的过分要求,通过区间参数摄动法得到固有频率所在的区间集,建立了激振力频率与结构固有频率干涉的非概率模型,给出了结构振动鲁棒可靠性准则.振动鲁棒可靠性的度量是通过结构避免发生共振所允许的不确定量的大小来体现的.结构所能承受的不确定度越大就越可靠,反之就不可靠,在数学模型上表现为激振力频率区间集与结构固有频率区间集的偏序关系.通过数值算例表明了所提出的结构振动非概率鲁棒可靠性准则的可行性.      

航天器数据预测中的因果关系调整技术应用研究

在航天领域，预测参数不但受其自身时序变化的影响，也普遍受到关联因素的交叉影响。因果因素的影响也需要在时序预测过程中被考虑，该类问题被列入因果调整技术当中。为了更全面地反映航天器参数变化的实际情况，提出了一种基于层次分析法（AHP）的因果调整方法。该方法提供了因果因素的判断调整方法，并将调整系数应用于时序模型预测的修正。最终，建立了一个因果与时序预测有机结合的预测体系。