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导弹命中精度评定中贝叶斯方法的应用 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
针对导弹武器系统试验评定的问题 ,研究了如何在命中精度评定中应用贝叶斯方法。在导弹落点偏差分布为正态 -逆伽马分布的假设下 ,提出以贝叶斯理论为基础 ,利用实际的导弹飞行试验状态信息和试验前的各种已知信息 ,加入弹道的模拟和仿真方法 ,获得评定的验前分布参数 ,使精度评定理论与实际情况相结合的方案。该方案以使用方提出的可信度和最低可信下界为检验精度的指标 ,同时也提出一种运用参数自助 (Bootstrap)方法获得验前分布参数的方法。最后 ,提供了完整的评定流程和说明 ,使实际的评定工作有一个较完整的体系。所提的贝叶斯方法尤其适合于小子样场合下的试验鉴定工作 相似文献
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This paper studies an electronic counter-counter measures (ECCM) scheme combating against deceptive electronic counter measure (ECM) techniques.An adaptive detector exploiting generalized likelihood ratio test (GRLT) criterion is applied to detect the presence of deceptive jamming in fractional Fourier transform (FrFT) domain.First,the generating mechanism of spurious frequencies is analyzed based on the Volterra serial.The proposed nonlinear distortion model based on power amplifier behavior is robust in distortion analysis when the memory effect is considered.Second,a modified adaptive beamformer orthogonal rejection test (ABORT) like detector in closed form is built.The proposed detector can discriminate the echo and deceptive jamming adaptively by exploiting primary data and secondary data.This ECCM scheme is capable of guaranteeing the performance without the restriction of orthogonality,which is essential for the ABORT detectors.The expansion to radar network is discussed as a special case at the final part of this paper.Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. 相似文献
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This paper presents a review of the various methods for the stationary non-Gaussian random vibration control. Random vibration tests can be divided, according to the number of exciters, in single-shaker tests and multiple-shaker tests. In the stationary non-Gaussian random vibration test, the time and frequency domain characteristics of the responses should be controlled independently and simultaneously. Skewness and kurtosis are usually selected as the non-Gaussian time control references (targets) while power spectral density is the frequency domain control procedure before it recalls the concepts of non-Gaussianity. Then, the generation of a one frame stationary non-Gaussian random signal for both the single and multiple shakers are reviewed. The commonly used methods for the single non-Gaussian random signal generation in the random vibration test are memoryless nonlinear transformation, phase modification and Filtered Poisson process. For the multiple-shaker case, the sequential phase modification and memoryless nonlinear transformation are used to generate one frame coupled multi-channel non-Gaussian random signal. In order to obtain a stationary and consecutive dynamic input, the time domain randomization procedure is introduced with high computational efficiency and its influences on the skewness and kurtosis are analyzed. Finally, two existing problems in the non-Gaussian random vibration control are addressed. 相似文献
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针对航空发动机的试验样本量和故障数据少,采用传统的数学平均值法对其平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)评估不能反映其真实可靠性水平的问题,基于Bayes理论,把历史试验数据视为先验信息,采用矩等效方法确定先验分布,然后通过Bayes理论综合现场试验数据,建立了一种基于Bayes理论的航空发动机MTBF评估方法。该方法可以扩大MTBF评估所需的信息量。采用所提出的Bayes方法对某航空发动机MTBF进行评估,得到其MTBF评估值为302.68h,比采用数学平均值法约提高了18.7%,评估结果更符合实际。表明该方法可应用于航空发动机MTBF的评估。 相似文献
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在对散布参数验前可信度的定义与必要性进行分析的基础上,给出了给定散布参数(方差)的P值计算模型,构建了一维散布分析时验前分布可信度的P值模型,给出了验前P值与验前可信度的定义,并对其变动情况进行了阐述,给出了验前分布的拒绝条件.对二维散布分析条件下的验前可信度分析,分别构建了验前P值的独立求解模型和集成求解模型.并从0.05,0.2,0.4区分的数据区间,给出了验前分布选择的原则和要求.基于案例比较可见,验前可信度能较为显著地完成验前分布的差异化比较,相对现有的仅对验前可信度的定性说明,基于P值的验前可信度建模与计算,不仅能完成验前可信度的量化计算,而且能从概率的角度对验前分布选择的正确性进行假设检验. 相似文献
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《中国航空学报》2016,(1):268-273
It is well-known that the application of ultrasound during liquid to solid transitions for alloys can refine the solidification microstructure and thus improves the mechanical properties. How-ever, most published work focuses on single phase dendritic growth, whereas little has been con-ducted on the multiphase alloys with complicated phase transformations during solidification. In this work, the solidification process of ternary Cu40Sn45Sb15 alloy was realized within intensive ultra-sonic field with a resonant frequency of 20 kHz and ultrasound power from 0 W to 1000 W. The ultrasound refines the size of the primary e(Cu3Sn) intermetallic compound by two orders of mag-nitudes. If the ultrasound power increases to 1000 W, g(Cu6Sn5) phase nucleates and grows directly from parent liquid phase without the occurrence of peri-eutectic reaction on the top of the alloy sam-ple where the ultrasound intensity is sufficiently high. These microstructural variations lead to the enhancement of compressive strength and elasticity modulus of ternary Cu40Sn45Sb15 alloy. 相似文献