基于T-S模糊模型的模糊大系统的混合滤波

针对非线性大系统内部过程参数的检测估计,采用连续模糊大系统模型,利用lyapunov定理和分布式处理方法,给出了模糊大系统的H2/H∞混合滤波器设计方法。该方法在保证滤波误差系统全局稳定的同时,具备了H2/H∞性能。通过求解线性矩阵不等式,可以得到滤波器参数。最后,用一个数值例子验证了该方法的正确性和有效性。     

Results of solar observations by the CORONAS-F payload

The CORONAS-F mission experiments and results have been reviewed. The observations with the DIFOS multi-channel photometer in a broad spectral range from 350 to 1500 nm have revealed the dependence of the relative amplitudes of p-modes of the global solar oscillations on the wavelength that agrees perfectly well with the earlier data obtained in a narrower spectral ranges. The SPIRIT EUV observations have enabled the study of various manifestations of solar activity and high-temperature events on the Sun. The data from the X-ray spectrometer RESIK, gamma spectrometer HELICON, flare spectrometer IRIS, amplitude–temporal spectrometer AVS-F, and X-ray spectrometer RPS-1 have been used to analyze the X- and gamma-ray emission from solar flares and for diagnostics of the flaring plasma. The absolute and relative content of various elements (such as potassium, argon, and sulfur) of solar plasma in flares has been determined for the first time with the X-ray spectrometer RESIK. The Solar Cosmic Ray Complex monitored the solar flare effects in the Earth’s environment. The UV emission variations recorded during solar flares in the vicinity of the 120-nm wavelength have been analyzed and the amplitude of relative variations has been determined.     

A fast pulse phase estimation method for X-ray pulsar signals based on epoch folding

X-ray pulsar-based navigation (XPNAV) is an attractive method for autonomous deep-space navigation in the future. The pulse phase estimation is a key task in XPNAV and its accuracy directly determines the navigation accuracy. State-of-the-art pulse phase estimation techniques either suffer from poor estimation accuracy, or involve the maximization of generally non-convex object function, thus resulting in a large computational cost. In this paper, a fast pulse phase estimation method based on epoch folding is presented. The statistical properties of the observed profile obtained through epoch folding are developed. Based on this, we recognize the joint prob-ability distribution of the observed profile as the likelihood function and utilize a fast Fourier transform-based procedure to estimate the pulse phase. Computational complexity of the proposed estimator is analyzed as well. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator significantly outperforms the currently used cross-correlation (CC) and nonlinear least squares (NLS) estima-tors, while significantly reduces the computational complexity compared with NLS and maximum likelihood (ML) estimators.     

A cost driven predictive maintenance policy for structural airframe maintenance

Airframe maintenance is traditionally performed at scheduled maintenance stops.The decision to repair a fuselage panel is based on a fixed crack size threshold,which allows to ensure the aircraft safety until the next scheduled maintenance stop.With progress in sensor technology and data processing techniques,structural health monitoring (SHM) systems are increasingly being considered in the aviation industry.SHM systems track the aircraft health state continuously,lead ing to the possibility of planning maintenance based on an actual state of aircraft rather than on a fixed schedule.This paper builds upon a model-based prognostics framework that the authors developed in their previous work,which couples the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) with a first order perturbation (FOP) method.By using the information given by this prognostics method,a novel cost driven predictive maintenance (CDPM) policy is proposed,which ensures the aircraft safety while minimizing the maintenance cost.The proposed policy is formally derived based on the trade-off between probabilities of occurrence of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance.A numerical case study simulating the maintenance process of an entire fleet of aircrafts is imple mented.Under the condition of assuring the same safety level,the CDPM is compared in terms of cost with two other maintenance policies:scheduled maintenance and threshold based SHM maintenance.The comparison results show CDPM could lead to significant cost savings.     

Evaluation and improvement of coastal GNSS reflectometry sea level variations from existing GNSS stations in Taiwan

Global sea level rise due to an increasingly warmer climate has begun to induce hazards, adversely affecting the lives and properties of people residing in low-lying coastal regions and islands. Therefore, it is important to monitor and understand variations in coastal sea level covering offshore regions. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) have been successfully used to robustly derive sea level heights (SLHs). In Taiwan, there are a number of continuously operating GNSS stations, not originally installed for sea level monitoring. They were established in harbors or near coastal regions for monitoring land motion. This study utilizes existing SNR data from three GNSS stations (Kaohsiung, Suao, and TaiCOAST) in Taiwan to compute SLHs with two methods, namely, Lomb–Scargle Periodogram (LSP)-only, and LSP aided with tidal harmonic analysis developed in this study. The results of both methods are compared with co-located or nearby tide gauge records. Due to the poor quality of SNR data, the worst accuracy of SLHs derived from traditional LSP-only method exceeds 1?m at the TaiCOAST station. With our procedure, the standard deviations (STDs) of difference between GNSS-derived SLHs and tide gauge records in Kaohsiung and Suao stations decreased to 10?cm and the results show excellent agreement with tide gauge derived relative sea level records, with STD of differences of 7?cm and correlation coefficient of 0.96. In addition, the absolute GNSS-R sea level trend in Kaohsiung during 2006–2011 agrees well with that derived from satellite altimetry. We conclude that the coastal GNSS stations in Taiwan have the potential of monitoring absolute coastal sea level change accurately when our proposed methodology is used.     

Global ionospheric scintillations revealed by GPS radio occultation data with FY3C satellite before midnight during the March 2015 storm

Global observations of S4 amplitude scintillation index by the GPS Occultation Sounder (GNOS) on FengYun-3 C (FY3C) satellite reveal global dynamic patterns of a strong pre-midnight scintillations in F-region of the ionosphere during the St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic super storm of 17–19 March 2015. The observed strong scintillations mainly occurred in the low latitudes, caused by equatorial plasma bubbles. During the main storm phase (March 17), the scintillations were first triggered in the New Zealand sector near 160°E longitudes, extending beyond 40°S dip latitude. They were also enhanced in the Indian sector, but significantly suppressed in East Asia near 120°E longitude and in Africa around 30°E longitude. During the initial recovery phase (March 18–19), the global scintillations were seldom observed in GNOS data. During the later recovery phase (after March 19), the scintillations recovered to the pre-storm level in Indian, African, and American sectors, but not in East Asian and any of Pacific sectors. These results closely correlate with observations of the density depletion structures by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, and ground-based instruments. Such consistency indicates reliability of our scintillation sensing approach even in a case-by-case comparison study. The prompt penetration electric field and disturbance dynamo electric field are suggested as the main factors that control the enhancement and inhibition of the scintillations during the storm, respectively.     

一种卫星信道的反馈优化接入机制

提高卫星信道资源利用率，探索高效可行的端站接入机制是卫星通信发展亟待解决的问题之一。当前卫星通信DVB-RCS标准基于带宽预先规划的接入机制与端站随遇接入的需求矛盾凸显，因此提出一套信道反馈优化接入机制，综合考虑各端站数据业务需求，在不改变原有协议信令特征的基础上，探索性地引入谦虚度激励方法，创造性地构造动态协商反馈模型并加以求解，达到提高端站接入数量、满足随遇接入需求、提升信道利用效率、最大化整体带宽通信业务效益的目的。通过试验验证，带宽分配反馈优化机制比传统模式提高近1倍接入率，最大端站数接入时算法耗时约只有0.67s，可为卫星信道使用提供技术参考。     

Effects on winter circulation of short and long term solar wind changes

Indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation show correlations on the day-to-day timescale with the solar wind speed (SWS). Minima in the indices were found on days of SWS minima during years of high stratospheric aerosol loading. The spatial distribution of surface pressure changes during 1963–2011 with day-to-day changes in SWS shows a pattern resembling the NAO. Such a pattern was noted for year-to-year variations by Boberg and Lundstedt (2002), who compared NAO variations with the geo-effective solar wind electric field (the monthly average SWS multiplied by the average southward component, i.e., negative Bz component, of the interplanetary magnetic field). The spatial distribution of the correlations of geopotential height changes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the SWS; the geo-effective electric field (SWS∗Bz); and the solar 10.7 cm flux suggests that solar wind inputs connected to the troposphere via the global electric circuit, together with solar ultraviolet irradiance acting on the stratosphere, affect regional atmospheric dynamics.     

地市级政府规模影响因素的实证研究——以河南省为例

政府规模是我国推进行政体制改革、简政放权进程中值得关注的一个重大课题,文章以＂利维坦假说＂和＂瓦格纳法则＂为理论基础,利用河南省1990~2012年的地市级面板数据,通过构建静态面板数据模型和动态面板数据模型,从一个更微观的视角考察了地方政府规模的影响因素。研究发现,财政分权推动了地方政府规模的扩大,＂利维坦假说＂并不成立;而经济发展水平、城镇化率与地方政府规模也呈正相关关系,即＂瓦格纳法则＂是成立的;此外,我们还发现人口规模、产业结构和开放程度也是影响地方政府规模的重要因素。     

Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.