Forecasting of DST variations from polar cap indices using neural networks

The 15-min averaged polar cap (PC) index was used as an input parameter for the Dst variation forecasting. The PC index is known to describe well the principal features of the solar wind as well as the total energy input to the magnetosphere. This allowed us to design a neural network able to forecast the Dst variations from 1 to 4 h ahead. 1998 PC and Dst data sets were used for training and testing and 1997 data sets was used for validation proposes. From the 15 moderate and strong geomagnetic storms observed during 1997, nine were successfully forecasted. In three cases the observed minimum Dst value was less than the predicted one, and only in three cases the neural network was not able to reproduce the features of the geomagnetic storm.     

Space weather in Japan

In Japan, Communications Research Laboratory engages in operational space environment information services as National Forecasting Center and Regional Warning Center of ISES. Data from local observations and data collected via internet from domestic and foreign institutes are used for the daily operational forecast. Fundamental research on space weather issues has been carried out at several institutes and universities, including STE Laboratory and NASDA. In this presentation, an overview of current space weather forecast operations and a system for information outreach in Japan will be presented. Current and future observation programs from ground-base and space will be also briefly reviewed.     

弹丸撞击防护屏形成碎片云速度特性研究

微流星及空间碎片的高速撞击威胁着长寿命，大尺寸航天器的安全运行，导致其严重的损伤和灾难性的失效，为精确估计微流星及空间碎片主速撞击防护屏产生的碎片对舱壁的损伤，必须确定碎片云速度特性。文章在冲量和能量守恒的基础上，建立了碎片速度性分析模型，研究了碎片云的速度特性，得到了碎片云材料传播及碎片云喷射角随弹丸撞击速度的变化规律。     

空间站大型伸展机构动力学研究中的若干问题

由于空间站大型伸展机构运动中的时变性，其拓扑构形和系统的自由度都是变化着的，因而问题较定常构形动力学问题复杂得多。文章对航天伸展机构进行分类，并研究所组成的各类运行副，约束特点和约束方程及轨道、姿态、伸展运动的几何和运动描述；考虑柔性结构效应及热变形的动力学分析模型；还对连接间隙、摩擦、限位内碰撞、预应力、重力场及空气阻力的干扰进行分析；最后讨论了试验研究结论。     

星载光学遥感器消杂光技术现状与发展

通过对国内外杂散辐射理论发展状况的研究和消杂光技术的探讨，归纳出杂光技术领域目前的国际水平以及该项技术的发展趋势；分别从散射理论、分析软件、测试途径以及杂光抑制措施等７个方面，力图全面系统地阐述该项技术的诸方面内容。文章从国情出发，根据当前中国消杂光技术现状和未来高水平空间遥感器的要求，提出下一步中国消杂光技术发展的建议。     

绳系卫星释放及工作态动力学分析

考虑强系卫星系统强索质量的影响，导出三维空间动力学方程，运用Pontryagin极小值理论求出释放过程中张力优化控制规律；得到最佳释放速度变化曲线，对子星工作阶段进行动力学分析。讨论系统质心沿椭圆轨道运动与姿态运动的耦合，文中附有算例。     

用于空间光学仪器的镜子的轻量化研究

对用于空间光学仪器的镜子实施轻量化工艺的必要性作了阐述,并对轻量化镜子的材料及结构的选择作了讨论。用有限元计算法对轻量化镜子在外力作用下的变形情况进行了计算分析。最后,文中还具体介绍了镜子实施轻量化技术后的结果。     

太阳高能电子束通过空间振荡轴向场产生的电磁不稳定性

本文基于太阳高能电子和日冕区开放场及行星际磁场特征，建立了相对论电子束与伴有空间变化（空间周期变化）的轴向场相互作用模型，用数值方法研究了该体系产生的电磁不稳定性，结果指出只有当太阳高能电子束速度和空间振荡场波数大到一定程度时，该体系才可激发在旋电磁模不稳定性，当太阳高能电子束逐一通过日冕和行星际空间时，激发具有波频向低频漂移特征的电磁波．     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.