基于相空间重构的网络流量RBF神经网络预测

应用混沌理论,分析了网络流量,用单变量的网络流量时闯序列重构与网络动力系统等距同构的相空间,进而计算了实际网络的关维数和Lyapunov指数,并证实了网络流量存在混沌特性;据此建立了基于径向基函数（RBF）神经网络的模型,并对实际网络数据流进行了预测。仿真结果表明,相对于其他前馈神经网络预测,基于混沌理论的RBF神经网络预测方法学习速度快,预测精度高。     

行星际激波的多方指数

从Ｈｅｌｉｏｓ等６个飞船１９７２年至１９８７年的太阳风观测资料找出９８６个行星际快激波，利用ＭＨＤ Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ－Ｈｕｇｏｎｉｏｔ方程组分析了激波上下游参数关系，确定出每一个激波的最佳多方指数。结果指出，多方指数有一分布，其最可几值约在１．７０－１．７５之间。     

Magnetospheric and ionospheric manifestations of interplanetary foreshocks

The geometry of a typical interplanetary shock front in the vicinity of the Earth’s orbit predicts that the leading edge of the foreshock region comes into contact with the magnetosphere a few hours ahead of geomagnetic sudden impulses (SI). There is reason to believe that the interaction of the magnetosphere with the foreshock leads to magnetic and ionospheric disturbances, which can be detected by ground-based instruments. We searched for specific precursors of SIs in data from the Scandinavian riometer network and in the short period geomagnetic pulsation data from mid-latitude magnetometers. We found that SIs were preceded by the following three features: (1) an increase in riometric absorption, (2) excitation of Pcl magnetic pulsations and (3) a spectral broadening of the Pc3 magnetic pulsations. Our observations may be useful for the study of acceleration processes in the solar wind. These observations are also of potential forecasting interest.     

黄道面内行星际激波相互碰撞作用过程研究—间距效应

本文用两维半MHD数值模型,模拟研究了不同间距的两扰动源所产生的激波在行星际空间黄道面内的相互碰撞过程。在内边界(18R_s),两扰动中心的间距取为24°、36°、48°、54°、72°、120°,模拟了两激波速度均为1000km/s和2000km/s两种情形。结果表明:1.速度为1000km/s的两中等激波,相距24°时,在1AU以内强烈相互作用而汇合成一新激波;相距36°时,在1AU附近发生汇合,但尚可分辨;相距48°时,在1AU以内有相互作用,但可近似认为是独立传播的;相距72°时,将独立向前传播。2.速眨为2000km/s的两强激波,相距≤48°时,将强烈汇合成一新激波;相距54°时,在1AU附近产生汇合,但尚可分辨;相距72°时,相互作用不足以汇合成新的激波;相距120°时,其传播相互独立地进行。并给出了上述情形下两激波汇合的时间和位置,详细比较了汇合激波与相同能量的单激波的等离子体特性。     

On the correlation of the solar wind observed at the L5 point and at the Earth

The L5 point is a promising location for forecasting co-rotating high-speed streams in the solar wind arriving at the Earth. We correlated the solar wind data obtained by the Nozomi spacecraft in interplanetary space and by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) at the L1 point, and found that the correlation is significantly improved from that of the 27-day recurrence of ACE data. Based on the correlation between the two spacecraft observations, we estimated the correlation of the solar wind velocity between the L5 point and at the Earth, and found that the correlation coefficient was about 0.78 in late 1999, while that of the 27-day recurrence was 0.51. Eighty-eight percent of the velocity difference falls within 100 km/s between the L5 point and the Earth. This demonstrates the potential capability of solar wind monitoring at the L5 point to forecast the geomagnetic disturbances 4.5 days in advance.     

Relationships between energetic storm particle events and interplanetary shocks driven by full and partial halo coronal mass ejections

We have analysed energetic storm particle (ESP) events in 116 interplanetary (IP) shocks driven by front-side full and partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with speeds $>$400 km s^?1during the years 1996–2015. We investigated the occurrence and relationships of ESP events with several parameters describing the IP shocks, and the associated CMEs, type II radio bursts, and solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Most of the shocks (57 %) were associated with an ESP event at proton energies $>$1 MeV.The shock transit speeds from the Sun to 1 AU of the shocks associated with an ESP event were significantly greater than those of the shocks without an ESP event, and best distinguished these two groups of shocks from each other. The occurrence and maximum intensity of the ESP events also had the strongest dependence on the shock transit speed compared to the other parameters investigated. The correlation coefficient between ESP peak intensities and shock transit speeds was highest (0.73 $\pm$ 0.04) at 6.2 MeV. Weaker dependences were found on the shock speed at 1 AU, Alfvénic and magnetosonic Mach numbers, shock compression ratio, and CME speed. On average all these parameters were significantly different for shocks capable to accelerate ESPs compared to shocks not associated with ESPs, while the differences in the shock normal angle and in the width and longitude of the CMEs were insignificant.The CME-driven shocks producing energetic decametric–hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts and high-intensity SEP events proved to produce also more frequently ESP events with larger particle flux enhancements than other shocks. Together with the shock transit speed, the characteristics of solar DH type II radio bursts and SEP events play an important role in the occurrence and maximum intensity of ESP events at 1 AU.     

信息时代互联网发展对国家主权侵蚀研究

在信息时代，互联网的快速发展加速了信息的传播和流动，推动了社会的开放，极大地方便了人们的工作和生活，推进了经济社会的全面发展和进步，但同时也对一个国家的主权和安全带来了诸多的挑战。重点分析了互联网的快速发展对国家的政治、经济、文化和军事主权带来的挑战和侵蚀，提出管理部门应积极探索适合本国国情的互联网发展道路，最大限度地保护与实现国家和民族的根本利益。     

Effects of sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field on the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere dynamics

In this paper we study the influence of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity changes caused by the Earth passing through the IMF sector boundary on the dynamic processes taking place in neutral atmosphere within the altitude interval of the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere (83–101 km). The analysis has revealed the influence of the IMF sector structure on dynamics of the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere. There has been a significant seasonal variation of the wind reaction to the IMF polarity changes observed. The influence of the IMF polarity changes on neutral atmosphere dynamics within the altitude range of 83–101 km is most pronounced in the zonal component of neural wind when the IMF polarity changes from negative to positive in all the seasons except for spring and when IMF polarity changes from positive to negative – in spring only.     

从IP组播数据中断故障谈网络地址设计

首先描述了在IP网络环境中出现的组播数据偶断现象,分析定位了故障出现的原因。然后,详细阐述了组播维护机理,从组播管理协议的运行机制上进一步分析了组播数据偶断的过程。最后,给出了通过网络地址重新设计的方法解决问题的方案,并提出了交换机、路由器-VLAN（虚拟局域网）-主机的网络地址按顺序进行由小到大地分级分配的原则。     

Interplanetary medium – A dusty plasma

The average mass of dust per volume in space equals that of the solar wind so that the interplanetary medium should provide an obvious region to study dust plasma interactions. While dust collective behavior is typically not observed in the interplanetary medium, the dust component rather consists of isolated grains screened by and interacting with the plasma. Space measurements have revealed several phenomena possibly resulting from dust plasma interactions, but most of the dust plasma interactions are at present not quantified. Examples are the production of neutrals and pick-up ions from the dust, dust impact generated field variations at spacecraft and magnetic field variations possibly caused by solar wind interacting with dust trails. Since dust particles carry a surface charge, they are exposed to the Lorentz force in the interplanetary magnetic field and for grains of sub-micrometer sizes acceleration can be substantial.