Real-time zenith tropospheric delays in support of numerical weather prediction applications

The Geodetic Observatory Pecný (GOP) routinely estimates near real-time zenith total delays (ZTD) from GPS permanent stations for assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models more than 12 years. Besides European regional, global and GPS and GLONASS solutions, we have recently developed real-time estimates aimed at supporting NWP nowcasting or severe weather event monitoring. While all previous solutions are based on data batch processing in a network mode, the real-time solution exploits real-time global orbits and clocks from the International GNSS Service (IGS) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) processing strategy. New application G-Nut/Tefnut has been developed and real-time ZTDs have been continuously processed in the nine-month demonstration campaign (February–October, 2013) for selected 36 European and global stations. Resulting ZTDs can be characterized by mean standard deviations of 6–10 mm, but still remaining large biases up to 20 mm due to missing precise models in the software. These results fulfilled threshold requirements for the operational NWP nowcasting (i.e. 30 mm in ZTD). Since remaining ZTD biases can be effectively eliminated using the bias-reduction procedure prior to the assimilation, results are approaching the target requirements in terms of relative accuracy (i.e. 6 mm in ZTD). Real-time strategy and software are under the development and we foresee further improvements in reducing biases and in optimizing the accuracy within required timeliness. The real-time products from the International GNSS Service were found accurate and stable for supporting PPP-based tropospheric estimates for the NWP nowcasting.     

Predictive Modeling and Parameter Optimization of Cutting Forces During Orbital Drilling

To optimize cutting control parameters and provide scientific evidence for controlling cutting forces,cutting force modeling and cutting control parameter optimization are researched with one tool adopted to orbital drill holes in aluminum alloy 6061.Firstly,four cutting control parameters(tool rotation speed,tool revolution speed,axial feeding pitch and tool revolution radius)and affecting cutting forces are identified after orbital drilling kinematics analysis.Secondly,hybrid level orthogonal experiment method is utilized in modeling experiment.By nonlinear regression analysis,two quadratic prediction models for axial and radial forces are established,where the above four control parameters are used as input variables.Then,model accuracy and cutting control parameters are analyzed.Upon axial and radial forces models,two optimal combinations of cutting control parameters are obtained for processing a13mm hole,corresponding to the minimum axial force and the radial force respectively.Finally,each optimal combination is applied in verification experiment.The verification experiment results of cutting force are in good agreement with prediction model,which confirms accracy of the research method in practical production.     

基于神经网络的飞行科目模板样本集建立方法

为建立某一飞行科目的模板样本集,提出一套基于神经网络和卡尔曼滤波的数据处理方法。任选一次试飞样本,建立Kohonen自组织神经网络进行参数降维、聚类分析、特征提取等,使样本量缩减90%以上,得到该科目的模板样本集。用处理后的样本训练BP神经网络,对其他未经处理的试飞样本进行载荷预测,误差均在3%之内,说明处理后的样本能代表该科目的数据特点,即为模板样本集。方法可以为飞机载荷监控数据库的完善工作服务。     

基于落点预测的高旋火箭弹弹道修正算法

高旋火箭弹的修正控制是基于等效力实现的二维弹道修正控制，由于弹体存在陀螺进动和马格努斯效应，在控制力作用下产生的附加攻角引起的升力与控制力的矢量合为等效力，其大小与方向在控制过程中不断变化，不能简单根据偏差量（修正量）的比例关系来确定控制力的方向。基于此，分析了控制力与等效力的关系，提出了一种基于弹道落点预测的控制算法。首先利用弹道落点预测模型实时预测落点与目标的偏差量，然后利用小扰动法构造偏差量对控制量的敏感系数矩阵，通过偏差量与敏感系数矩阵解算出纵、横两个方向的需用控制量。采用修正前后速度矢量的位置关系得到控制量的合矢量及其方位角，并利用控制量的合矢量与等效力计算出控制周期，在控制周期内按照等效力方位角调整控制力的方向实现对高旋火箭弹的精确控制，解决了非线性耦合问题。仿真结果表明该算法具有较高的控制精度，为工程应用提供理论依据。     

空间引力波探测微牛电推进寿命评估研究现状

阐述了空间引力波探测任务中无拖曳控制技术对推进系统的特殊要求，介绍了目前主要的备选推进类型：冷气推进、离子电推进、会切型霍尔电推进、胶体电推进。针对面向空间引力波探测任务的电推进系统的寿命评估工作进行了任务分析，报告了目前微牛级电推进系统寿命试验研究现状，举例说明了目前主要应用的电推进装置寿命预测方式，包括半经验模型预测、数值模拟预测、基于数据驱动的预测以及系统层面的可靠性评估方法。对目前微牛级电推进系统的寿命评估研究现状进行总结，给出了发展思路。     

基于随机森林的航空器到达时刻预测

航空器到达时刻（ ETA）预测是进场排序与调度的基础，因此进场飞行时间的快速与准确预测显得尤为重要。通过分析航班信息、天气信息以及空中交通信息，基于随机森林算法构建了航空器到达时刻预测模型。选取上海浦东机场进场航班进行仿真验证，仿真结果表明，预测模型可以实现航空器到达时刻的快速与准确预测。     

弹射救生系统大迎角大侧滑角气动特性工程计算方法研究

对弹射救生系统的气动特性进行了分析,发展了一套快速获取其气动特性的工程计算方法,并对某战斗机弹射救生系统的大迎角大侧滑角气动力特性进行了计算.结果表明,工程计算结果与风洞试验数据一致性良好.     

指数分布的预测问题

对指数分布的单样、双样预测问题，进行了详细的讨论，这对寿命服从指数分布的产品的寿命试验有指导意义．     

Improving orbit prediction accuracy through supervised machine learning

Due to the lack of information such as the space environment condition and resident space objects’ (RSOs’) body characteristics, current orbit predictions that are solely grounded on physics-based models may fail to achieve required accuracy for collision avoidance and have led to satellite collisions already. This paper presents a methodology to predict RSOs’ trajectories with higher accuracy than that of the current methods. Inspired by the machine learning (ML) theory through which the models are learned based on large amounts of observed data and the prediction is conducted without explicitly modeling space objects and space environment, the proposed ML approach integrates physics-based orbit prediction algorithms with a learning-based process that focuses on reducing the prediction errors. Using a simulation-based space catalog environment as the test bed, the paper demonstrates three types of generalization capability for the proposed ML approach: (1) the ML model can be used to improve the same RSO’s orbit information that is not available during the learning process but shares the same time interval as the training data; (2) the ML model can be used to improve predictions of the same RSO at future epochs; and (3) the ML model based on a RSO can be applied to other RSOs that share some common features.     

High-efficiency aircraft antiskid brake control algorithm via runway condition identification based on an on-off valve array

The aircraft antiskid braking system is an important hydraulic system for preventing tire bursts and ensuring safe take-off and landing. The brake system adjusts the force applied on the brake discs by controlling the brake pressure. Traditional aircraft antiskid braking systems achieve antiskid performance by controlling the braking pressure with an electrohydraulic servo valve. Because the pilot stage of an electrohydraulic servo valve is easily blocked by carbonized hydraulic oil, the servo valve would become a dangerous weak point for aircraft safety. This paper proposes a new approach that uses an on-off valve array to replace the servo valve for pressure control. Based on this new pressure control component, an efficient antiskid control algorithm that can utilize this discontinuous feature is proposed. Furthermore, the algorithm has the ability to identify the runway circumstances. To overcome the discontinuity in the process of using an on-off valve array, the Filippov framework is introduced. The conditions of convergence of the system are also discussed. The results of the digital simulations and the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) braking experiments are used to verify the efficiency and stability of the proposed control algorithm. The method also proves that the on-off valve array can replace the servo valve perfectly as a new type of antiskid braking pressure control component.