激光辐照充压壳体的破坏评价(Ⅰ)——破坏概率分析

时激光辐照充压壳体破坏(失效)的结果进行评价时,对有关物理参量的不确定性进行定量分析是必要的.以充压壳体破坏(失效)的断裂机理为基础,讨论了如何建立壳体结构破坏(失效)的评价方法,问题的核心是建立壳体结构破坏(失效)的概率模型.该模型中,将影响结构破坏的各个物理参量划分为驱动力和抗力两种类型,通过计算驱动力和抗力的均值和标准差,可得到结构的破坏概率.在此基础上,给出了数值算例,得到了不同加载条件下模型壳体的破坏概率.     

哥伦布航天器对轨道碎片撞击危害的设计考虑

简要介绍了欧洲空间局在执行哥伦布计划期间，在载人压力舱和有人照料的自由飞行器的设计阶段。对微流量和轨道碎片撞击危害的防护研究方面所做的主要工作。     

一种单幅异源图像适配性的计算方法及应用

图像适配性问题在匹配区选取与景象匹配末制导试验中都具有重要的地位,图像适配性通常用匹配概率度量。针对单幅图像,采用降质变换方法生成图像对,提出一种能用于计算单幅异源图像适配性的方法,并应用于图像适配性评估。该方法操作性强,容易实现,可解决缺少先验信息时图像适配性的计算问题。     

大型双曲冷却塔表面脉动风压随机特性——风压极值探讨

针对风压信号呈现的非高斯特性和传统极限估计方法的局限,首次提出基于保证率和相关性的极值估计方法——全概率迭代法进行冷却塔表面脉动风荷载极值分析,并和传统的峰值因子法及改进的Sadek-Simiu法计算结果进行对比验证。结果表明：全概率迭代法避开了对随机过程的高斯分布假定,相比传统的极值估计方法其结果更加真实可靠;表达风压极值中脉动分量的峰值因子数值沿着环向和子午向变化显著,如取为同一数值则偏于危险或过于保守;采用全概率迭代法得到的表面风压系数极值分布曲线与规范取值相比,迎风面和负压峰值区域极值偏小,背风区域极值偏大,且最小值对应角度相差约10°。     

基于比例导引角度线性化的无人机避障研究

基于无人机与障碍物之间的几何关系,在极坐标系下建立了无人机与障碍物之间的运动学方程,通过引入基于角度线性化的比例导引律,使无人机能够顺利避开障碍物。引入的基于角度线性化的比例导引律是关于无人机相对速度航向角与避障点视线角的函数,由比例函数及偏差函数组成。为解决初始时刻相对速度航向角不满足引入导引律的问题,在调节函数中加入了指数项。通过稳定性证明,得到了满足要求的导引律参数取值范围。最后对设计的避障算法进行了仿真,仿真结果验证了算法的有效性。     

简单二体引力模型用于空间目标轨道面交线确定的效果分析

在空间目标碰撞预警分析中，准确地计算出空间目标的轨道面交线是进行地心距筛选、时间差筛选的前提，目前较多使用的快速确定轨道面交线的方法为简单二体引力模型。深入分析该模型，比较了其计算的空间目标轨道面交线与STK计算结果的差异，指出了简单二体引力模型在计算空间目标轨道面交线时的局限性，认为轨道摄动是影响轨道面交线计算准确性的主要原因，应该采用更能反映空间目标实际运动规律的改进的二体引力模型的方法。     

Modelling ignition probability with pairwise mixing-reaction model for flame particle tracking

Reduced order models for ignition analysis can offer insights into ignition processes and facilitate the combustor optimization. In this study, a Pairwise Mixing-Reaction (PMR) model is formulated to model the interaction between the flame particle and the surrounding cell mixture during Lagrangian flame particle tracking. Specifically, the model accounts for the two-way coupling of mass and energy between the flame particle and the surrounding shell layer by modelling the corresponding turbulent mixing, chemical reaction and evaporation process if present. The state of a flame particle, e.g., burnt, hot gas or extinguished, is determined based on particle temperature. This model can properly describe the ignition process with a spark kernel being initiated in a nonflammable region, which is of practical importance in certain turbine engines and has not been rigorously accounted for by the existing models based on the estimation of local Karlovitz number. The model is integrated into an ignition probability analysis platform and is demonstrated for a methane/air bluff-body flame with the flow and fuel/air mixing characteristics being extracted from a non-reacting simulation. The results show that for the spark location being at the extreme fuel-lean outer shear layer of the recirculation zone, PMR can yield ignition events with a significant number of active flame particles. The mechanisms for the survival of the initial flame particles and the entrainment of the survived flame particles into the recirculation zone are analyzed. The results also show that the ignition probability map from PMR agrees well with the experimental observation: a high ignition probability in the shear layer of the recirculation zone near the mean stoichiometric surface, and low ignition probabilities inside the recirculation zone and the top stagnation region of the recirculation zone. The parametric study shows that the predicted shape of the ignition progress factor and ignition probability is in general insensitive to the model parameters and the model is adequate for quantifying the regions with high ignition probabilities.     

超静超稳卫星碰振动力学建模

针对分离式卫星载荷模块(PM)受到扰动时可能与服务模块(SM)发生碰撞的问题，综合音圈电机反电动势(back-EMF)和柔性线缆动力学的效应，基于牛顿欧拉法建立了分离式卫星(DFP)载荷模块动力学模型。基于Hertz接触理论，推导了分离式卫星碰撞过程中连续接触力模型，并分析了碰撞过程中产生的接触力对载荷模块指向精度和指向稳定度的影响。数值仿真结果表明，碰撞使得载荷模块指向精度和指向稳定度下降5个数量级，碰撞后载荷模块可再次恢复到超静超稳工作状态，恢复时间超过1400 s。本文建立的碰撞模型对研究分离式卫星碰撞规避和碰撞控制具有重要意义。     

A multi-aircraft conflict detection and resolution method for 4-dimensional trajectory-based operation

Conflict Detection and Resolution(CDR) is the key to ensure aviation safety based on Trajectory Prediction(TP). Uncertainties that affect aircraft motions cause difficulty in an accurate prediction of the trajectory, especially in the context of four-dimensional(4D) Trajectory-Based Operation(4DTBO), which brings the uncertainty of pilot intent. This study draws on the idea of time geography, and turns the research focus of CDR from TP to an analysis of the aircraft reachable space constrained by 4D waypoint constraints. The concepts of space–time reachability of aircraft and space–time potential conflict space are proposed. A novel pre-CDR scheme for multiple aircraft is established. A key advantage of the scheme is that the uncertainty of pilot intent is accounted for via a Space-Time Prism(STP) for aircraft. Conflict detection is performed by verifying whether the STPs of aircraft intersect or not, and conflict resolution is performed by planning a conflict-free space–time trajectory avoiding intersection. Numerical examples are presented to validate the efficiency of the proposed scheme.     

航材可修件备件量模型辨析及改进

通过对以目标保障率为中心的泊松及威布尔概率模型进行详细辨析,讨论其在实际应用过程中存在的困难与缺陷,建议使用一种适用于各种概率分布的通用计算公式,以更好的应用于实际。