A comparative study of ionospheric IRIEup and ISP assimilative models during some intense and severe geomagnetic storms

Three-dimensional (3-D) electron density matrices, computed in the Mediterranean area by the IRI climatological model and IRIEup and ISP nowcasting models, during some intense and severe geomagnetic-ionospheric storms, were ingested by the ray tracing software tool IONORT, to synthesize quasi-vertical ionograms. IRIEup model was run in different operational modes: (1) assimilating validated autoscaled electron density profiles only from a limited area which, in our case, is the Mediterranean sector (IRIEup_re(V) mode); (2) assimilating electron density profiles from a larger region including several stations spread across Europe: (a) without taking care of validating the autoscaled data in the assimilation process (IRIEup(NV)); (b) validating carefully the autoscaled electron density profiles before their assimilation (IRIEup(V)).The comparative analysis was carried out comparing IRI, IRIEup_re(V), ISP, IRIEup(NV), and IRIEup(V) foF2 synthesized values, with corresponding foF2 measurements autoscaled by ARTIST, and then validated, at the truth sites of Roquetes (40.80°N, 0.50°E, Spain), San Vito (40.60°N, 17.80°E, Italy), Athens (38.00°N, 23.50°E, Greece), and Nicosia, (35.03°N, 33.16°E, Cyprus). The outcomes demonstrate that: (1) IRIEup_re(V), performs better than ISP in the western Mediterranean (around Roquetes); (2) ISP performs slightly better than IRIEup_re(V) in the central part of Mediterranean (around Athens and San Vito); (3) ISP performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one in the eastern Mediterranean (around Nicosia); (4) IRIEup(NV) performance is worse than the IRIEup(V) one; (5) in the central Mediterranean area, IRIEup(V) performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one, and it is practically the same for the western and eastern sectors.Concerning the overall performance, nowcasting models proved to be considerably more reliable than the climatological IRI model to represent the ionosphere behaviour during geomagnetic-ionospheric storm conditions; ISP and IRIEup(V) provided the best performance, but neither of them has clearly prevailed over the other one.     

基于神经网络的维修保障流程影响度分析方法

针对维修保障能力的主要影响因素分析及其影响度的量化问题,以维修保障业务流程作为分析对象,通过建立业务流程参数与装备使用能力的关系函数,建立影响因素和影响度的分析方法,并给出影响程度、关键要素、关键影响要素以及综合影响度定义.以流程数量、效率和稳定性作为分析指标,利用MATLAB软件基于神经网络实现对关系函数的逼近求解,为装备制造企业提供确定关键流程和主要影响因素的系统实现.以某航空装备制造企业维修保障业务流程为例给出具体应用,与专家评价方法相比该方法可获得更为客观的分析结果.      

Global ionospheric scintillations revealed by GPS radio occultation data with FY3C satellite before midnight during the March 2015 storm

Global observations of S4 amplitude scintillation index by the GPS Occultation Sounder (GNOS) on FengYun-3 C (FY3C) satellite reveal global dynamic patterns of a strong pre-midnight scintillations in F-region of the ionosphere during the St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic super storm of 17–19 March 2015. The observed strong scintillations mainly occurred in the low latitudes, caused by equatorial plasma bubbles. During the main storm phase (March 17), the scintillations were first triggered in the New Zealand sector near 160°E longitudes, extending beyond 40°S dip latitude. They were also enhanced in the Indian sector, but significantly suppressed in East Asia near 120°E longitude and in Africa around 30°E longitude. During the initial recovery phase (March 18–19), the global scintillations were seldom observed in GNOS data. During the later recovery phase (after March 19), the scintillations recovered to the pre-storm level in Indian, African, and American sectors, but not in East Asian and any of Pacific sectors. These results closely correlate with observations of the density depletion structures by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, and ground-based instruments. Such consistency indicates reliability of our scintillation sensing approach even in a case-by-case comparison study. The prompt penetration electric field and disturbance dynamo electric field are suggested as the main factors that control the enhancement and inhibition of the scintillations during the storm, respectively.     

超临界压力RP-3在竖直细圆管内混合对流研究

研究了超临界压力下碳氢燃料航空煤油RP-3在竖直细圆管内混合对流,分析了浮升力及热物性对碳氢燃料在垂直管中对流换热的影响。实验中控制热流密度从200~500 kW/m2变化,进口压力变化范围为3~5 MPa,进口雷诺数从5 000~10 500范围内变化。研究表明:在向上流动情况中进口段存在较为明显的入口效应,换热出现恶化现象,而在向下流动中未出现;对于向上和向下流动,由于热物性的综合影响,换热系数沿流动方向增大;在较低进口雷诺数(Re=5 700)时,对于向下流动,随着浮升力影响的增大,浮升力改变了流体径向速度分布,出现了换热强化;在较高进口雷诺数(Re=10 500)时,浮升力对换热的影响依然显著;判别式Bo*数小于5.6×10-7未能预测浮升力对碳氢燃料换热影响。      

空间增材制造技术的应用

中国空间站旨在进行大量在轨科学实验和空间应用研究,在轨保障是支持空间站在全寿命周期内完成载人航天任务的重要途径.传统地面制造及上行补给方式难以满足较大规模应用的需求,亟需一种创新性的保障模式突破资源瓶颈,空间增材制造技术具有极大的潜力实现即造即用的资源保障模式.本文根据空间增材制造技术的最新研究进展,结合中国空间站和载人深空探测任务需求,对空间增材制造技术的在轨应用模式进行分析,提出了中国空间增材制造技术未来发展所面临的问题和解决途径.     

焊接工艺方法对6061-T6铝合金焊接接头疲劳性能的影响

通过对6061铝合金MIG焊接头和TIG焊接头在对应的加载应力条件下疲劳寿命的测定,对比分析了两种工艺方法对铝合金焊接接头疲劳性能的影响。结果表明,在加载应力低于焊接接头静载力学性能的90%时,焊接接头的疲劳寿命均能满足需求背景的需要(100000次不破坏)。同样载荷条件下,MIG焊接头的疲劳性能优于TIG焊接头,尤其是在高应力条件下,MIG焊接头的优势更为明显。焊接接头显微组织分析表明,MIG焊接头比TIG焊接头具有更为细小的晶粒和焊接热影响区,有效地提高了接头的滑移形变抗力,抑制了循环滑移带的形成和开裂,从而提高接头的疲劳性能。疲劳断口分析显示,试件的表面缺陷(疏松、气孔、夹杂等)及机械损伤是疲劳裂纹主要的策源地。     

基于Markov Chain Monte Carlo的幂律过程的Bayesian分析

在多种合理的无信息先验分布下,基于Markov Chain Monte Carlo方法,提出了一种简单且易于抽样的幂律过程的Bayesian分析方法.所提方法将失效、时间截尾数据统一分析,能快捷地获取幂律过程模型参数的Markov Chain Monte Carlo样本,利用该样本不但能直接给出模型参数函数的后验分布,还能给出单样预测和双样预测的分析.一个经典工程数值算例说明了所提方法的可行性、合理性与有效性.该方法具有一定的优越性,可为小子样可靠性增长分析提供一种值得参考的方法.      

叶轮机械三维不可压Euler方程的直接解法

本文用近似因式分解交替方向隐式格式直接求解叶轮机械中原参数三维不可压Euler方程组。在连续方程中引入“拟压缩性”之后,将原来类型不确定的控制方程变成双曲型方程,给定初边值之后用时间推进法求得稳定解,对一个单级压气机转子内部流场进行了计算,结果与实验值比较符合。     

Modelling ignition probability with pairwise mixing-reaction model for flame particle tracking

Reduced order models for ignition analysis can offer insights into ignition processes and facilitate the combustor optimization. In this study, a Pairwise Mixing-Reaction (PMR) model is formulated to model the interaction between the flame particle and the surrounding cell mixture during Lagrangian flame particle tracking. Specifically, the model accounts for the two-way coupling of mass and energy between the flame particle and the surrounding shell layer by modelling the corresponding turbulent mixing, chemical reaction and evaporation process if present. The state of a flame particle, e.g., burnt, hot gas or extinguished, is determined based on particle temperature. This model can properly describe the ignition process with a spark kernel being initiated in a nonflammable region, which is of practical importance in certain turbine engines and has not been rigorously accounted for by the existing models based on the estimation of local Karlovitz number. The model is integrated into an ignition probability analysis platform and is demonstrated for a methane/air bluff-body flame with the flow and fuel/air mixing characteristics being extracted from a non-reacting simulation. The results show that for the spark location being at the extreme fuel-lean outer shear layer of the recirculation zone, PMR can yield ignition events with a significant number of active flame particles. The mechanisms for the survival of the initial flame particles and the entrainment of the survived flame particles into the recirculation zone are analyzed. The results also show that the ignition probability map from PMR agrees well with the experimental observation: a high ignition probability in the shear layer of the recirculation zone near the mean stoichiometric surface, and low ignition probabilities inside the recirculation zone and the top stagnation region of the recirculation zone. The parametric study shows that the predicted shape of the ignition progress factor and ignition probability is in general insensitive to the model parameters and the model is adequate for quantifying the regions with high ignition probabilities.     

流量调节器管路系统自激振荡特性研究（液体火箭推进专刊）

流量调节器管路系统在小流量大压降工况下会出现低频自激振荡现象,为了深入认识自激振荡产生机理,结合某型自稳流型流量调节器及管路系统,基于流量调节器弹簧振子动力学模型开展数值仿真研究。数值仿真得出自激振荡频率为94 Hz,与发动机试验结果一致。自激振荡产生机理是流量调节器的液动力受滑阀窗口型面变化率影响对系统形成正反馈作用,流量调节器综合刚度小于零时系统失稳。分析了流量调节器结构参数对系统稳定性的影响作用,三角形滑阀节流口流通面积能够抑制管路系统自激振荡。结合某型流量调节器负载特性试验系统进行验证,得出随着流量调节器压降升高,管路系统稳定性变差,获得的幅频特性,稳定边界与试验结果一致。