测试系统成本控制与相对不确定度分配方法研究

根据动态规划原理，提出以控制成本为前提、利用计算机软件辅助计算对复杂测试系统的相对不确定度进行合理分配的方法。这种方法既能满足成本控制又能保证系统的相对不确定度指标的要求。     

透光率/雾度仪校准结果的不确定度评定

主要讨论了透光率/雾度仪的校准方法,并对校准结果的测量不确定度进行了评定.     

不确定性因素下航班延误波及建模与分析

针对机场终端区日益严重的航班延误,提出了一种基于有色－时间Petri网的不确定性因素下航班延误波及分析模型。模型综合考虑航班运行尾流、跑道运行模式、跑道占用时间等运行安全间隔约束,同时根据连续航班间的信息更新,设计进离场航班序列动态调整流程,并由计算模型可得出航班延误总架次及时间。最后,依据历史延误数据分析得出不确定性因素延误的概率分布。选取上海浦东机场为背景对模型进行仿真验证,仿真结果表明,所构建模型可用于战略阶段的航班延误波及程度与过程的评估。     

更准确、更精确、更高效——高超声速流动数值模拟研究进展

从准度、精度和效率3方面回顾了近几十年来高超声速流动数值模拟研究的进展。在物理模型方面,介绍了高超声速数值模拟中高温气体效应、稀薄气体效应以及湍流效应的建模与模拟,基于雷诺平均Navier-Stokes(RANS)方程重点对现阶段较为关注的高超声速边界层转捩的模式理论研究进行了介绍。在空间离散算法方面,主要介绍了高超声速数值模拟中常用的二阶精度迎风格式以及高阶精度格式的发展及其应用。在时间推进方面,主要回顾了隐式时间推进方法的发展及其应用。在误差和不确定度估计方面,主要介绍了其概念、来源以及常用的分析方法,同时给出了迭代误差估计、Richardson外插法以及敏感性导数方法等初步研究结果。最后,讨论了高超声速流动数值模拟中下一步需关注的问题。     

Epistemic uncertainty quantification in flutter analysis using evidence theory

Aimed at evaluating the structural stability and flutter risk of the system, this paper manages to quantify epistemic uncertainty in flutter analysis using evidence theory, including both parametric uncertainty and method selection uncertainty, on the basis of information from limited experimental data of uncertain parameters. Two uncertain variables of the actuator coupling system with unknown probability distributions, that is bending and torsional stiffness, which are both described with multiple intervals and the basic belief assignment(BBA) extricated from the modal test of actuator coupling systems, are taken into account. Considering the difference in dealing with experimental data by different persons and the reliability of various information sources, a new combination rule of evidence––the generalized lower triangular matrices method is formed to acquire the combined BBA. Finally the parametric uncertainty and the epistemic uncertainty of flutter analysis method selection are considered in the same system to realize quantification. A typical rudder of missile is selected to examine the present method, and the dangerous range of velocity as well as relevant belief and plausibility functions is obtained. The results suggest that the present method is effective in obtaining the lower and upper bounds of flutter probability and assessing flutter risk of structures with limited experimental data of uncertain parameters and the belief of different methods.     

基于切比雪夫多项式展开的转子动力特性区间分析

基于切比雪夫多项式展开,建立了转子系统临界转速和稳态响应区间分析方法,能在仅具有参数上下界的情况下获得结果分布区间。针对临界转速区间分析问题,将支承刚度、密度和弹性模量视为区间变量,建立转子系统固有频率的切比雪夫多项式表达式,最终获得临界转速区间,临界转速误差不超过0.07%。在固有特性分析基础上,应用切比雪夫方法求解转子系统的稳态响应,并由模态叠加原理对响应区间进行修正,解决了固有特性不确定性较大时稳态响应求解精度不足的问题。与蒙特卡洛插值结果相比,响应上界误差不超过8%。基于切比雪夫展开的非确定分析方法,不需修改原结构的振动微分方程。结果表明该方法结合商业有限元软件后,应用简单,并具有理想的精度。     

Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Transonic Flutter Using Improved Line Sampling Technique

The improved line sampling (LS) technique, an effective numerical simulation method, is employed to analyze the probabilistic characteristics and reliability sensitivity of flutter with random structural parameter in transonic flow. The improved LS technique is a novel methodology for reliability and sensitivity analysis of high dimensionality and low probability problem with implicit limit state function, and it does not require any approximating surrogate of the implicit limit state equation. The improved LS is used to estimate the flutter reliability and the sensitivity of a two-dimensional wing, in which some structural properties, such as frequency, parameters of gravity center and mass ratio, are considered as random variables. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based unsteady aerodynamic reduced order model (ROM) method is used to construct the aerodynamic state equations. Coupling structural state equations with aerodynamic state equations, the safety margin of flutter is founded by using the critical velocity of flutter. The results show that the improved LS technique can effectively decrease the computational cost in the random uncertainty analysis of flutter. The reliability sensitivity, defined by the partial derivative of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of random variable, can help to identify the important parameters and guide the structural optimization design.     

坐标测量机面向任务的测量不确定度分析

受较多不确定度来源的影响,面向任务的不确定度是众多测量机用户所关心的,本文介绍了应用坐标测量机时,针对具体任务的不确定度的实用分析方法,并列举实例进行说明。     

大电流充放电电源的电流不确定度评定

介绍了大电流充放电电源电流校准装置的组成和工作原理,根据JJF1059-1999《测量不确定度评定与表示》关于不确定度评定的原则,对电流校准的不确定度进行了分析和评定。     

湍流模型系数不确定度对翼型绕流模拟的影响

使用非嵌入式多项式混沌方法研究了湍流模型系数的不确定度对RAE2822跨声速翼型绕流模拟的影响。计算中关注了数值模拟的积分量（升力系数、阻力系数）和局部量（壁面压力、摩擦系数和空间马赫数分布）的不确定度量化结果。首先,从单输入变量入手,研究卡门常数的不确定度对数值模拟的影响。然后,同时考虑Spalart-Allmaras模型中9个参数的不确定度带来的影响。通过多项式混沌展开,得到系统输出对不确定输入变量的响应,由此可以得到输出的统计特性,包括平均值、方差和极值等信息。最后,在多变量不确定度量化过程中,通过Sobol指标来量化每个输入变量的不确定度对输出不确定度的贡献程度。本文计算只考虑了RAE2822跨声速翼型模拟的单一计算状态,影响规律是否可以推及其他工况和算例需要进一步检验。