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241.
《中国航空学报》2023,36(5):306-327
Evidential Reasoning (ER) rule, which can combine multiple pieces of independent evidence conjunctively, is widely applied in multiple attribute decision analysis. However, the assumption of independence among evidence is often not satisfied, resulting in ER rule inapplicable. In this paper, an Evidential Reasoning rule for Dependent Evidence combination (ERr-DE) is developed. Firstly, the aggregation sequence of multiple pieces of evidence is determined according to evidence reliability. On this basis, a calculation method of evidence Relative Total Dependence Coefficient (RTDC) is proposed using the distance correlation method. Secondly, as a discounting factor, RTDC is introduced into the ER rule framework, and the ERr-DE model is formulated. The aggregation process of two pieces of dependent evidence by ERr-DE is investigated, which is then generalized to aggregate multiple pieces of non-independent evidence. Thirdly, sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the relationship between the model output and the RTDC. The properties of sensitivity coefficient are explored and mathematically proofed. The conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process of ERr-DE and the properties of sensitivity coefficient are verified by two numerical examples respectively. Finally, the practical application of the ERr-DE is validated by a case study on the performance assessment of satellite turntable system. 相似文献
242.
243.
《中国航空学报》2023,36(3):184-201
It is vital to establish an interpretable fault diagnosis model for critical equipment. Belief Rule Base (BRB) is an interpretable expert system gradually applied in fault diagnosis. However, the expert knowledge cannot be utilized to establish the initial BRB accurately if there are multiple referential grades in different fault features. In addition, the interpretability of BRB-based fault diagnosis is destroyed in the optimization process, which reflects in two aspects: deviation from the initial expert judgment and over-optimization of parameters. To solve these problems, a new interpretable fault diagnosis model based on BRB and probability table, called the BRB-P, is proposed in this paper. Compared with the traditional BRB, the BRB-P constructed by the probability table is more accurate. Then, the interpretability constraints, i.e., the credibility of expert knowledge, the penalty factor and the rule-activation factor, are inserted into the projection covariance matrix adaption evolution strategy to maintain the interpretability of BRB-P. A case study of the aerospace relay is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. 相似文献
244.
对成败型航空发动机部件可靠性增长试验抽样数的确定问题进行了研究。推导出了初始故障数服从典型离散分布时的最小化最大准则(Max-Min准则),提出了一种逐次抽样样本估计值反馈修正方法。最后给出了一个应用实例,验证了该方法的有效性。 相似文献
245.
Due to the excellent performance in complex systems modeling under small samples and uncertainty, Belief Rule Base(BRB) expert system has been widely applied in fault diagnosis. However, the fault diagnosis process for complex mechanical equipment normally needs multiple attributes, which can lead to the rule number explosion problem in BRB, and limit the efficiency and accuracy. To solve this problem, a novel Combination Belief Rule Base(C-BRB) model based on Directed Acyclic Graph(DAG) structu... 相似文献