通货紧缩与货币供求分析

通货紧缩是指一般物价指数的持续下降，它是一种货币现象，表现为货币供不应求。当前人民币供给的增长速度大于ＧＤＰ的增长速度，人民币供不应求的原因在于其流通速度下降幅度超过了供给增长速度。人民币流通速度下降是因为社会公众以货币形态持有收入倾向的增强。所以，货币需求过快上升引发了通货紧缩。     

完善税收政策促进经济和谐发展

如何定位税收政策的作用空间并加以完善,使其能够促进经济全面协调发展,已成为税收研究领域的一个重要课题。文章从当前的基本经济运行情况出发,探讨如何通过税收调节内需不足、贫富差距拉大以及产业结构不合理等经济发展不协调的方面,并提出相应的政策措施和建议,以充分发挥税收的杠杆作用,促进收入分配合理化、产业结构升级以及税收和经济的良性发展。     

基于蚁群改进 BP算法的组合预测模型在军械器材需求预测中的应用

针对在军械器材采购计划制定环节中的器材需求测算问题,提出基于蚁群改进BP算法的组合预测模型。先结合历史数据,利用多元线性回归预测法和自回归滑动平均模型（ARMA）进行初步预测,将初步预测的结果作为蚁群改进BP网络的输入,从而得到最终的预测结果。实验结果表明,基于蚁群改进BP算法的组合预测模型能够对积累的历史数据进行充分的应用,并且有较高的预测准确性。     

Stochastic acceleration of charged particle in nonlinear wave field

Possibility of stochastic acceleration of charged particle by nonlinear waves is investigated. Spatially regular (SR) and spatiotemporal chaotic (STC) wave solutions evolving from saddle steady wave are tested as the fields. In the non-steady SR field the particle is finally trapped by the wave and averagely gains its group velocity, while in the STC field the particle motion displays trapped-free phases with its averaged velocity larger or smaller than the group velocity depending on the charge sign. A simplified model is established to investigate the acceleration mechanism. By analogy with motor protein, it is found that the virtual pattern of saddle steady wave plays a role of asymmetric potential, which and the nonlinear varying perturbation wave are the two sufficient ingredients for the acceleration in our case. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

我国债券市场的结构失衡及其纠正

我国债券市场存在着严重的债券融资与股权融资的比例失衡、品种结构失衡、企业债券发行的主体结构及价格结构失衡等问题。针对这些结构失衡的后果及其产生原因进行了分析，认为资本市场与债券市场定位偏差、信用制度不健全及多头监管格局是导致上述失衡现象的主要原因，并提出了调整资本市场功能定位、改革发行制度、优化信用环境、加强监管协调的政策建议。     

飞机备件需求量的确定方法

飞机备件需求量计算是航空备件计划管理的一项重要内容。对飞机备件的分类及其特性进行了分析，并建立了循环件、非循环件和消耗件的需求量计算实用关系式。对需求量计划在实际中的应用问题，提出些看法和建议。     

东部地区交通运输战略研究中的理论与模型

本文总结了我国东部地区综合交通运输发展战略研究中应用的理论与模型,阐述了交通运输需求与供给行为的理论,并研究了交通运输结构系统和数学模型。本课题已通过国家科委组织鉴定。     

现场可修系统的可靠性数据处理

用随机点过程模型来处理航空产品现场可修系统的可靠性数据时，存在系统故障修复次数少，数据不齐全的问题。为此，对符合非时齐泊松过程模型的数据作为“修复如新”处理时，所所应满足的条件及适用范围作了分析，通过数字仿真对精度的计算，在工作应用中，当系统修复次数小于或等于３时，可将“修复如旧”的系统当作“修复如新”的模型处理，但要注意参数ｍ的影响；对残存比率法应用于可修系统数据处理时的可能性进行了讨论。仿真结     

Applying the mathematical theory of stochastic processes to lunar and planetary science: the ancient oceans on Mars case

The Mathematical Statistics Theory (MST) and the Mathematical Theory of Stochastic Processes (MTSP) are different branches of the more general Mathematical Probability Theory (MPT) that represents different aspects of some physical processes we can analyze using mathematics. Each model of a stochastic process according to the MTSP can provide one or more interpretations in the MST domain. The importance of MTSP is that each such interpretation can provide large amount of new information. While large body of work on the impact crater statistics according to MST has already been done, it is yet to be investigated as to how we can model a stochastic process according to MTSP; for example, bombardment of the planetary surface or something else in a Lunar and Planetary Science (LPS) domain. In order to show possible achievements, the possible existence of a Martian ocean was chosen as a query that could be addressed through computations using presumptions according to MTSP, including probability of existence as well as lateral and vertical extent and duration of time. While the presumptions for this particular case will also be addressed in certain degree, this will be done primarily to show complexities of some physical process that can be modeled, rather than to prove correctness of the concrete values computed here. While this in itself can be the objective in some future work toward the formal proof of the probability, extent, and timing of oceans on Mars, the basic idea here is to show the basic principles of MTSP, and its potential for addressing LPS-related phenomena. Here, I attempt to show how this approach can: (1) provide large amounts of previously unknown information about physical processes on the surface of the planet, (2) lead to a better understanding of the processes that have shaped the surface of the planet, and/or (3) help constrain the amount of resurfacing. Coupled with other current methodologies, MTSP can result in a better understanding of the history of Mars, as well as other lunar and planetary bodies.     

随机间隔脉冲串雷达信号的平均模糊函数研究

研究了随机间隔脉冲串雷达信号，给出了该随机序列的模糊函数数学表达式，对推导过程所采用的主要方法和思路作了详细叙述，并分析了调制参数变化对结果的影响。