The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of Bz with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of Bz in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%. 相似文献
为解决在缺乏统计数据时无法对系统安全性进行评估的问题,提出将系统广义随机Petri网(GSPN,Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets)与经典评估相结合的方法.以某型尚处于设计阶段的飞机前轮转弯系统为研究对象,通过分析该系统结构功能图,建立出系统故障类型和影响分析(FMEA,Failure Modes and Effects Analysis)表;依照经典公式,求出系统各单元及其故障类型的故障率、维修度、平均无故障时间和平均维修时间等数据;将求得的数据与前轮转弯系统的GSPN模型相结合,利用TimeNET软件求得系统各故障类型的稳态失效概率;联立经验公式及危险度矩阵图对系统的安全性进行评估.经测评,该型飞机前轮转弯系统安全性符合设计要求. 相似文献
Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder (QAR) data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane. It is also an essential content of flight accident analysis. The related techniques are developed in the present paper, including the geometric method for angle of attack and sideslip angle estimation, the extended Kalman filter associated with modified Bryson-Frazier smoother (EKF-MBF) method for aerodynamic coefficient identification, the radial basis function (RBF) neural network method for aerodynamic modeling, and the Delta method for stability/control derivative estimation. As an application example, the QAR data of a civil airplane approaching a high-altitude airport are processed and the aerodynamic coefficient and derivative estimates are obtained. The estimation results are reasonable, which shows that the developed techniques are feasible. The causes for the distribution of aerodynamic derivative estimates are analyzed. Accordingly, several measures to improve estimation accuracy are put forward. 相似文献