线性回归模型的最小均方误差估计

在未知线性回归模型测量误差的协方差矩阵和非零均值(由非模型化误差及测量设备系统性误差组成)情况下,提出一种回归参数的“最小均方误差估计“,证明了其优良性。还对稳健估计、测量精度分析中随机与系统性误差分离、白塞尔公式与变量差分法统计随机方差结果不一致等问题,作了深入研究分析。     

红外气体分析中环境影响的补偿方法研究

环境温度、总压影响是红外气体分析中难以有效解决的主要问题之一，本文以二氧化碳气体为测量对象，采用实验手段，单片机和数据自理技术建立了环境温度、总压对红上气体分析影响的补偿数学模型和求解方法，并进行了实验验证，研究的内容为红外气体分析中影响影响的外补偿开始辟了一条新的途径，具有广阔的应用前景。     

RECAT间隔标准的差异性对比与计算分析

尾流是影响机场容量的重要因素之一,在保证安全前提下缩减尾流间隔能增加机场繁忙时刻航空器进离场架次,进而提高机场容量.美国和欧洲提出尾流标准重新分类(RECAT)概念,并在一些机场试运行,取得良好效果.基于国内某机场一周内航空器起降机型架次,将其重新分类,对比在现行ICAO和RECAT标准下的加权尾流间隔,证明在RECAT标准下尾流间隔将会缩减.通过改变不同航空器机型占比,分析机场容量变化,得出机场容量随航空器占比变化明显,对空管安全运行和机场及跑道运行效率提高具有实际参考价值.     

Transient simulation of a differential piston warm gas self-pressurization system for liquid attitude and divert propulsion system

In order to obtain the dynamic characteristics of a differential piston warm gas selfpressurization system for liquid attitude and divert propulsion system, a transient model is developed using the modular modeling method. The system includes the solid start cartridge,pressure-amplified tank with liquid monopropellant, liquid regulator, gas generator, and pipes.The one-dimensional finite-element state-variable model is applied to the pipes and the lumped parameter method is adopted for the other modules. The variations of the system operation parameters over time during the startup, steady-state, and pulsing operational processes are obtained from the transient model, and the characteristics of starting time changing with different system parameters are also analyzed. It is shown that the system startup process can be divided into three distinct processes. The starting time monotonically changes with variations of the liquid regulator parameters, first decreasing and then increasing with the mass change of the solid propellant charge of the start cartridge, initial gas cavity volume of the pressure amplified tank and initial gas cushion of the propellant tank. The starting time can be reduced to less than 1.0 s(0.68–0.75 s for the current system). For meeting the deviation requirements of ±10% of the steady-state propellant tank pressure, the positive deviation requirement is assured by the self-locking pressure and the negative deviation can be assured within an allowable maximum propellant tank volume flowrate(1.6 times the design value for the proposed system) for downstream thrusters for a designed system. The results from the simulation are useful as a guide for further system design and testing.     

Estimation of probability of occurrence of F1 layer or L condition using tables and electron density profile models

An algorithm is proposed for evaluation of the probability of occurrence of an F1 layer or L condition, based on tables. Observations independent of the tables database are used for comparison between the estimated probability of occurrence, the formulation used at present in IRI, and the occurrence actually observed. The importance of the inclusion of L condition in the electron density profile model is shown.     

The accuracy of data from ionosondes for the estimation of hmF2 and the identification of global change in the ionosphere

A long temporal series of simulated ionograms was generated with a superimposed secular variation of −14 km/century on the h_mF2 parameter. These ionograms were interpreted by the automatic scaling program Autoscala. By applying four different empirical formulas, four artificial series of h_mF2 were generated and then processed with the same methods used by other authors for real data sets. Data analysis of the simulated ionograms revealed the artificially imposed long-term trend. These results lead to the conclusion, that regardless of the empirical formula used, the accuracy of h_mF2 from ionosonde measurements would be adequate to observe a long-term trend of −14 km/century.     

How Galactic Cosmic Ray models affect the estimation of radiation exposure in space

The radiation environment in space is a major concern for human spaceflight because of the adverse effects of high levels of radiation on astronauts’ health. Therefore, it is essential to perform radiation risk assessments already during the concept studies of a manned mission. Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) have been identified to be one of the primary sources of radiation exposure in space.     

What is wrong with space system cost models? A survey and assessment of cost estimating approaches

Despite several decades of research and refinement in cost estimating tools and practices, the final cost of US space programs continues to exceed initial cost estimates by an average of more than 45%. Thus, program cost models not only exhibit error, they are seriously biased. A structured review surveyed techniques, approaches, models and conceptual tools related to space program cost estimating, to understand cost in complex space systems. Analysis shows problems of cost estimating result from the growing complexity of space programs, failures in managing growth, and mission failures. Although there is greater expectation for the models to accurately predict program costs, the current models used for seeking funding for large space programs are inadequate due to (1) inability to predict future, (2) lack of insight, and (3) process replaces judgment in decision making.     

采用等高线地图的CGF地域表示和推理

采用等高线地图作为分布交互仿真环境中计算机生成兵力的地域表示．介绍等高线电子地图下计算机生成兵力系统地域表示和推理的一种方法．通过对地域显示、通视性检测和地形检测等几个基本问题的分析，表明采用该方法是可行的．具有地域表示范围大、地域推理简单明了的特点，并且地域数据真实、修改方便．这种方法比多边形地域表示法更适用于海上和空中大范围训练作战环境的仿真．     

DBV-RCS中一种提高时延性能的时隙分配方法(英文)

在DVB-RCS卫星通信中,为某个业务分配的时隙在MF-TDMA帧中的位置分布将影响该业务的时延特性。本文分别针对固定速率和实时可变速率业务,对MF-TDMA的帧长度、终端分配的时隙数量及位置分布与业务时延性能之间的关系进行了建模分析。理论分析表明时隙位置是影响业务时延的一个重要因素,位置分布越均匀,越能提高业务的时延性能;时隙均匀分配相比传统的时隙连续分配可以有效降低业务平均时延,且时延不随帧长的变化而变化;在时隙均匀分配方式下,提高实时可变速率业务的带宽分配可以更有效的提高时延性能。在DVB-RCS标准基础上,提出了一种与标准完全兼容的时隙均匀分配方法(TUAM),通过计算机仿真验证了算法的有效性以及建模分析的正确性,该算法可有效地保证业务具有极低的平均时延和时延抖动,使得VoIP等实时业务不会由于端到端时延过大而丢包,提高了DVB-RCS系统对于实时业务QoS的保障能力。