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基于在线LS-SVM算法的变参数混沌时间序列预测 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
研究利用最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)预测变参数混沌时间序列。变参数混沌系统适合于描述现实中的复杂混沌现象,但由于参数的慢变导致系统动力学特性不断发生变化,基于Tan-kens嵌入定理的建模预测方法难以适用,其时间序列预测可以看作是小样本学习问题。最小二乘支持向量机是在二次损失函数下采用等式约束求解问题的一种支持向量机,保留支持向量机优点同时计算量大大减少。提出用一种具有遗忘机制的最小二乘支持向量机在线递推算法,并引入历史数据的高次项预测变参数混沌时间序列。对典型变参数混沌时间序列的预测结果表明,该方法具有较高预测精度,能快速跟踪预测变参数混沌时间序列。 相似文献
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在大规模、高强度、海上待战的作战模式下,海军导弹武器装备的高效及时补充,对于作战部队战斗力的恢复和持续具有越来越重要的意义。文章根据时效性和经济性原则,围绕保障关系的决策建立辅助决策模型,帮助指挥员快速地、科学地确定保障关系,为制定精确、快捷、高效的保障方案提供辅助决策,具有一定的参考和借鉴意义,并通过实例对模型进行了验证。 相似文献
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M. Nelson W.F. DempsterJ.P. Allen 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2008,41(5):675-683
Development of reliable and robust strategies for long-term life support for planetary exploration must be built from real-time experimentation to verify and improve system components. Also critical is incorporating a range of viable options to handle potential short-term life system imbalances. This paper revisits some of the conceptual framework for a Mars base prototype which has been developed by the authors along with others previously advanced (“Mars on Earth®”) in the light of three years of experimentation in the Laboratory Biosphere, further investigation of system alternatives and the advent of other innovative engineering and agri-ecosystem approaches. Several experiments with candidate space agriculture crops have demonstrated the higher productivity possible with elevated light levels and improved environmental controls. For example, crops of sweet potatoes exceeded original Mars base prototype projections by an average of 46% (53% for best crop) ultradwarf (Apogee) wheat by 9% (23% for best crop), pinto bean by 13% (31% for best crop). These production levels, although they may be increased with further optimization of lighting regimes, environmental parameters, crop density etc. offer evidence that a soil-based system can be as productive as the hydroponic systems which have dominated space life support scenarios and research. But soil also offers distinct advantages: the capability to be created on the Moon or Mars using in situ space resources, reduces long-term reliance on consumables and imported resources, and more readily recycling and incorporating crew and crop waste products. In addition, a living soil contains a complex microbial ecosystem which helps prevent the buildup of trace gases or compounds, and thus assist with air and water purification. The atmospheric dynamics of these crops were studied in the Laboratory Biosphere adding to the database necessary for managing the mixed stands of crops essential for supplying a nutritionally adequate diet in space. This paper explores some of the challenges of small bioregenerative life support: air-sealing and facility architecture/design, balance of short-term variations of carbon dioxide and oxygen through staggered plantings, options for additional atmospheric buffers and sinks, lighting/energy efficiency engineering, crop and waste product recycling approaches, and human factor considerations in the design and operation of a Mars base. An “Earth to Mars” project, forging the ability to live sustainably in space (as on Earth) requires continued research and testing of these components and integrated subsystems; and developing a step-by-step learning process. 相似文献