Advanced ensemble modeling method for space object state prediction accounting for uncertainty in atmospheric density

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space traffic management activities such as the satellite conjunction analysis. This paper investigates the evolution of orbit error distribution in the presence of atmospheric density uncertainties, which are modeled using probabilistic machine learning techniques. The recently proposed “HASDM-ML,” “CHAMP-ML,” and “MSIS-UQ” machine learning models for density estimation (Licata and Mehta, 2022b; Licata et al., 2022b) are used in this work. The investigation is convoluted because of the spatial and temporal correlation of the atmospheric density values. We develop several Monte Carlo methods, each capturing a different spatiotemporal density correlation, to study the effects of density uncertainty on orbit uncertainty propagation. However, Monte Carlo analysis is computationally expensive, so a faster method based on the Kalman filtering technique for orbit uncertainty propagation is also explored. It is difficult to translate the uncertainty in atmospheric density to the uncertainty in orbital states under a standard extended Kalman filter or unscented Kalman filter framework. This work uses the so-called “consider covariance sigma point (CCSP)” filter that can account for the density uncertainties during orbit propagation. As a test-bed for validation purposes, a comparison between CCSP and Monte Carlo methods of orbit uncertainty propagation is carried out. Finally, using the HASDM-ML, CHAMP-ML, and MSIS-UQ density models, we propose an ensemble approach for orbit uncertainty quantification for four different space weather conditions.     

Detumbling strategy based on friction control of dual-arm space robot for capturing tumbling target

The rotational motion of a tumbling target brings great challenges to space robot on successfully capturing the tumbling target. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the target’s rotation to a rate at which capture can be accomplished by the space robot. In this paper, a detumbling strategy based on friction control of dual-arm space robot for capturing tumbling target is proposed. This strategy can reduce the target’s rotational velocity while maintaining base attitude stability through the establishment of the rotation attenuation controller and base attitude adjustment controller. The rotation attenuation controller adopts the multi-space hybrid impedance control method to control the friction precisely. The base attitude adjustment controller applies the dual-arm extended Jacobian matrix to stabilize the base attitude. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) The compliant control method is adopted to achieve a precise friction control, which can reduce the target angular velocity steadily; (2) The dual-arm extended Jacobian matrix is applied to stabilize the base attitude without affecting the target capture task; (3) The detumbling strategy of dual-arm space robot is designed considering base attitude stabilization, realizing coordinated planning of the base attitude and the arms. The strategy is verified by a dual-arm space robot with two 7-DOF (degrees of freedom) arms. Simulation results show that, target with a rotation velocity of 20 (°)/s can be effectively controlled to stop within 30 s, and the final deflection of the base attitude is less than 0.15° without affecting the target capture task, verifying the correctness and effectiveness of the strategy. Except to the tumbling target capture task, the control strategy can also be applied to other typical on-orbit operation tasks such as space debris removal and spacecraft maintenance.     

复杂结构振动的一种超单元简化分析

本文提出了一种建立在常规有限元模型上的超单元分析方法,对复杂结构的振动分析进行降阶简化处理。这种方法是把结构重新以超单元形式划分,在超单元内部采用了简化的动减缩方法;边界上则采用局部位移场重新插值方法,或采用局部刚化的方法。由超单元组装得到的总体矩阵仍具有对称、稀疏等性质,得到的动力学方程仍具有常规形式。这种超单元分析方法不但大大降低了求解模型的阶次,扩大了求解能力,而且易于编程,求解方便。文中还通过摄动分析讨论了内部模态截取准则,以保证求解的有效性和可靠性。数值算例表明,本文方法是很有效的,且具有较高的求解精度。     

双损耗Al2O3基多孔吸波材料的制备及其吸波性能

基于片状Al₂O₃陶瓷互锁结构强度高的特点,制备出夹杂石墨的高气孔率的Al₂O₃多孔陶瓷,并通过原位还原在多孔骨架中制备出Ni微粒,形成一种轻质的双损耗陶瓷基吸波材料。通过XRD、FE-SEM和EDS研究了还原温度对多孔吸波材料的组成、微观形貌、元素分布和吸波性能的影响。结果表明,还原温度升温至700 ℃可将多孔网络中Ni完全还原,形成以堆叠互锁Al₂O₃为基,夹杂片状石墨和孔表面覆盖Ni微粒的双损耗轻质吸波材料。当复合材料厚度为6.5 mm时,最小反射损耗为-35.01 dB,有效吸收带宽达到1.75 GHz。片状Al₂O₃锁定的石墨片构筑的导电网络,Ni微粒与基体之间的极化效应等共同促进复合材料良好的微波吸收性能。     

典型激波针减阻降热特性及流动机理

为研究激波针对超/高超声速钝头飞行器进行减阻降热的相关特性,采用数值模拟方法对6种典型激波针构型的流动特征开展系统研究。给出了激波针长度、来流马赫数对流动特征的影响规律,并对其形成机理进行了探讨。结果显示:马赫数较低时,头部有扰流物的5种激波针在回流区即将分裂时减阻率最大;马赫数较高时,减阻率在回流区分裂前后出现局部峰值,但最大减阻率将出现在回流区分裂后更长的激波针长度下。马赫数为3时,6种构型减阻率达最大时的相对长度在0.8~1.2之间,相比而言,球型、半球型和双锥型的减阻效果最好,最大减阻率为45%~50%;圆锥型最差,为20%~25%,明显低于头部有扰流物的构型。相同的激波针长度下,头部有扰流物构型的减阻率随马赫数增大而增大,圆锥型则相反。流场回流区、分离激波、弓形激波、局部膨胀流动等导致的压力分布变化是构型整体阻力变化的主要成因。      

大型桥式机床立柱不同材料的特性分析

采用数值计算方法,比较了混凝土、铸铁和钢3种不同材料立柱的静载抗压能力以及冲击力下的瞬态响应,分析数据表明,钢立柱具有最好的承压能力,在相同压力下静变形最小;由于阻尼的原因,混凝土立柱的振幅受到明显限制,冲击力作用下振动衰减的较快,在更加关注减振性能的高速高性能加工领域,采用混凝土立柱是更好的选择.     

砂垫层刚度对地面地震反应的影响研究

我国是一个多地震国家，地震区分布范围广，发震频繁。因此减震、隔震技术对国民经济基本建设具有重要意义。随着科学技术的进步、计算机的运用等，减震、隔震方法的研究与应用取得了很大的发展，但仍有许多问题有待解决，特别是就我国目前中、低层房屋较多的实际状况而言，这一问题显得尤为突出。采用在基础与地基之间设置砂垫层的方法，减小或不放大地震对地面的影响，最终达到减震、隔震的目的。在提出砂垫层隔震概念及其与《建筑抗震设计规范》(GB50011—2001)的区别之后，研究了砂垫层刚度对地面地震反应的影响，得到了一些有益的结果。     

白刚玉对微烟推进剂燃烧性能的影响

微烟推进剂不能含有铝粉,故必须加入其他燃烧稳定剂来抑制不稳定燃烧。本文提出了燃烧稳定剂选择的关键性指标——粒度及粒度分布的可控性,认为磨料微粉白刚玉(Al_2O_3)是微烟推进剂比较合适的燃烧稳定剂新品种,进而研究了白刚玉粒度、含量对推进剂燃速、压强指数和燃烧稳定性影响的规律性,探讨了燃烧前后白刚玉粒度变化的趋势,并由实测火焰结构证实,该推进剂与双基推进剂火焰结构相似,从而为该类推进剂选择催化剂提供了理论依据.     

浇铸火箭发动机推进剂固化升温时间估算

对浇注火箭固体推进剂,药浆固化升温是一个不稳定的传热过程。发动机尺寸愈大,固化升温时间愈长。本文用有限差分法计算传热时间,根据实验获得药浆固化时的热性质参数和温度之间的函数关系;并计算得到发动机尺寸、升温时间与温度变化的关系。     

铅化合物在双基推进剂燃烧过程的作用机理

本文提出了铅化合物催化双基推进剂燃烧的反应历程。充分说明这类化合物是最终通过提高燃烧表面处嘶嘶区温度梯度提高燃速的。本文还提出了“铅化合物有通过增加燃烧表面上碳质物量增加燃速的一面,还有通过减少碳质物抑制燃速增加的一面”这一新的论点及抑制碳质物增加的反应并阐明了压力对这种抑制能力的影响。最后根据本文提出的作用机理及传热原理圆满解释了超速、平平和/或麦撒效应。