Specification of the Earth’s plasmasphere with data assimilation

In this paper we report on initial work toward data assimilative modeling of the Earth’s plasmasphere. As the medium of propagation for waves which are responsible for acceleration and decay of the radiation belts, an accurate assimilative model of the plasmasphere is crucial for optimizing the accurate prediction of the radiation environments encountered by satellites. On longer time-scales the plasmasphere exhibits significant dynamics. Although these dynamics are modeled well by existing models, they require detailed global knowledge of magnetospheric configuration which is not always readily available. For that reason data assimilation can be expected to be an effective tool in improving the modeling accuracy of the plasmasphere. In this paper we demonstrate that a relatively modest number of measurements, combined with a simple data assimilation scheme, inspired by the ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation technique does a good job of reproducing the overall structure of the plasmasphere including plume development. This raises hopes that data assimilation will be an effective method for accurately representing the configuration of the plasmasphere for space weather applications.     

用影响因子评估弹射座椅多模态控制输入参数

为提供弹射座椅多模态控制输入参数选择的理论依据,通过计算机仿真,比较分析了俯仰角、滚转角、滚转角速度、下沉率、迎角、侧滑角等弹射启动时飞机状态参数对弹射轨迹(垂直方向)和安全救生高度的影响。参考评估期刊的影响因子,提出了安全高度影响因子法,并计算出在同等弹射条件下(速度和高度)各参数的平均影响因子,得出各参数对救生高度的影响程度及变化规律,确定了俯仰角、滚转角和下沉率是影响救生高度的三个主要参数。     

One-up on L1: Can X-rays provide longer advanced warning of solar wind flux enhancements than upstream monitors?

Observations of strong solar wind proton flux correlations with ROSAT X-ray rates along with high spectral resolution Chandra observations of X-rays from the dark Moon show that soft X-ray emission mirrors the behavior of the solar wind. In this paper, based on an analysis of an X-ray event observed by XMM-Newton resulting from charge exchange of high charge state solar wind ions and contemporaneous neutral solar wind data, we argue that X-ray observations may be able to provide reliable advance warning, perhaps by as much as half a day, of dramatic increases in solar wind flux at Earth. Like neutral atom imaging, this provides the capability to monitor the solar wind remotely rather than in situ.     

Forecasting of DST variations from polar cap indices using neural networks

The 15-min averaged polar cap (PC) index was used as an input parameter for the Dst variation forecasting. The PC index is known to describe well the principal features of the solar wind as well as the total energy input to the magnetosphere. This allowed us to design a neural network able to forecast the Dst variations from 1 to 4 h ahead. 1998 PC and Dst data sets were used for training and testing and 1997 data sets was used for validation proposes. From the 15 moderate and strong geomagnetic storms observed during 1997, nine were successfully forecasted. In three cases the observed minimum Dst value was less than the predicted one, and only in three cases the neural network was not able to reproduce the features of the geomagnetic storm.     

Tomographic determination of the spatial distribution of water vapor using GPS observations

With the advent of the GPS navigation system, a promising ground based technique has been introduced which makes it possible to estimate the amount of water vapor in the troposphere from operational GPS networks at relatively low additional costs. While the estimation of the integrated amount is currently well established, the determination of the spatial water vapor distribution and its temporal variation are still a major challenge. To account for the vertical resolution, several tomographic approaches were pursued. We developed the software package AWATOS (atmospheric water vapor tomography software) which is based on the assimilation of double differenced GPS observations. Applying a least-squares inversion, the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of water vapor is determined. An extensive investigation has been carried out in Switzerland. GPS measurements are performed by the dense permanent Swiss national GPS network AGNES of the Swiss Federal Office of Topography (swisstopo). A total of 40 equally distributed water vapor profiles have been estimated on an hourly basis. For the purpose of validation, 22 radiosonde profiles were used at the GPS and meteorological station Payerne. Furthermore, data of the numerical weather model aLMo (alpine model in Switzerland, MeteoSwiss) were compared with the tomographic results. An overall good agreement of the three methods with an rms of better than 1.6 g/m³ absolute humidity was achieved. The results show that AGNES can be used as a dedicated network for the purpose of GPS-tomography, using a horizontal resolution of approximately 50 km and height layers of 300–500 m thickness in the lower troposphere.     

Space weather in Japan

In Japan, Communications Research Laboratory engages in operational space environment information services as National Forecasting Center and Regional Warning Center of ISES. Data from local observations and data collected via internet from domestic and foreign institutes are used for the daily operational forecast. Fundamental research on space weather issues has been carried out at several institutes and universities, including STE Laboratory and NASDA. In this presentation, an overview of current space weather forecast operations and a system for information outreach in Japan will be presented. Current and future observation programs from ground-base and space will be also briefly reviewed.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab’s High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E_10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index a_p, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E_10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.     

1997年1月空间天气事件的三维MHD模拟

以1997年1月空气天气事件期间的观测为依据，在构造了比较接近真实的背景太阳风基础上，进一步利用三维时变的MHD模式，模拟了CME（日冕物质抛射）激发的扰动在行星际空间的传播过程，对地球空间环境的影响及行星际磁场南向分量Bz在1AU的时间经历。模拟结果与WIND卫星的测量进行了比较。结果表明，模拟与观测得到的扰动得到地球的时间、地球空间环境各量的变化及Bz的时间经历基本一致。     

中小企业产业投资基金的逆向选择问题分析

主要研究在信息不对称条件下,从产业投资基金管理人的角度出发,利用模型证明中小企业的逆向选择行为会影响产业投资基金的运作,进而为基金管理人提出解决逆向选择问题的建议和策略。