提高航班签派或放行中的天气评估能力

在实际航班运行中,导致返航备降的各类原因里,天气因素占首位,因此,为保证航班安全、正常地运行,飞行签派员务必在航班签派或放行中做好天气的评估工作。     

The relationship between plasma effects and cosmic radiation studied with TriTel-LMP measurements during the ESEO mission

The main point of the paper is to use the simultaneous measurements of the energetic particle flux by TriTel and those of electron density by a Langmuir probe to study the question of to what extent solar electromagnetic and corpuscular radiation (galactic cosmic rays, particle precipitation from the radiation belts) are responsible for the ionization of the atmosphere. The electron density measured by the Langmuir probe is the sum of the ionization produced by the solar electromagnetic radiation and that due to the corpuscular radiation. The ionization produced by the solar electromagnetic radiation may be computed. The flux of energetic particles in an energy range may be determined by taking the difference between the threshold energy of the TriTel telescopes and the energy corresponding to the local cut-off rigidity. As the ESEO satellite will have a quasi-polar and circular orbit, the cut-off rigidity will change from low to high latitudes, thus enabling the assignment of different energy bands for the telescopes. Thus, it will be possible to determine which energy bands of particle produce ionization at different latitudes.     

Space weather center in Japan

Progress in information technology has enabled to collecting data in near real-time. This significantly improves our ability to monitor space weather conditions. We deliver information on near real-time space weather conditions via the internet. We have started two collaborations with space weather users. One is a measurement of geomagnetically induced current (GIC) of power grids in collaboration with a Japanese power company. The other concerns radiation hazards for aircrews. The radiation exposure level for aircrews was been determined by the Japanese government by the end of 2005. The proposed upper limit is 5 mSV a year. We are actively seeking ways to contribute to this subject. Our activities at the Japanese space weather center are reported in this paper.     

Propagation and interaction of interplanetary transient disturbances. Numerical simulations

We study the heliocentric evolution of ICME-like disturbances and their associated transient forward shocks (TFSs) propagating in the interplanetary (IP) medium comparing the solutions of a hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models using the ZEUS-3D code [Stone, J.M., Norman, M.L., 1992. Zeus-2d: a radiation magnetohydrodynamics code for astrophysical flows in two space dimensions. i – the hydrodynamic algorithms and tests. Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 80, 753–790]. The simulations show that when a fast ICME and its associated IP shock propagate in the inner heliosphere they have an initial phase of about quasi-constant propagation speed (small deceleration) followed, after a critical distance (deflection point), by an exponential deceleration. By combining white light coronograph and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements of ICMEs propagating within 1 AU [Manoharan, P.K., 2005. Evolution of coronal mass ejections in the inner heliosphere: a study using white-light and scintillation images. Solar Physics 235 (1–2), 345–368], such a critical distance and deceleration has already been inferred observationally. In addition, we also address the interaction between two ICME-like disturbances: a fast ICME 2 overtaking a previously launched slower ICME 1. After interaction, the leading ICME 1 accelerates and the tracking ICME 2 decelerates and both ICMEs tend to arrive at 1 AU having similar speeds. The 2-D HD and MHD models show similar qualitative results for the evolution and interaction of these disturbances in the IP medium.     

Seasonal dependence of TEC and SLAB thickness

Several years of hourly daily GPS measurements of the vertical total electron content (TEC) and of the equivalent slab thickness made at different European locations are analysed by using the linear regression technique to demonstrate the response of these two ionospheric parameters to seasonal variations. It is found that both TEC and slab thickness are highly correlated with season. Analytical relationships are determined expressing the seasonal dependence of the vertical TEC and of the equivalent slab thickness as a function of the seasonal parameter cos χ at noon in each location.     

Cosmic ray studies at Moussala – Past,present and future

We review the main activities carried out at Moussala peak (2925 m above sea level, 42°11′N, 23°35′E) station in Bulgaria, connected with cosmic ray investigations during the last five decades. Several important results obtained at the station are reported. The detector design and corresponding methodological studies of the presently operational devices are shown as well, precisely the Cherenkov light telescope, lead free neutron monitor and muon telescope. The scientific potential of the existing complex is discussed.     

PC-index fluctuations and intermittency of the magnetospheric dynamics

One minute resolution Polar Cap (PC) index was used for the analysis of magnetospheric dynamics. The 1995–2000 time series analysis revealed that the power spectrum of the PC-index fluctuations is a power law in a wide range of frequencies. However, the obtained exponents differ for low and high frequency regions. The probability distribution functions of the PC-index fluctuations show a strong non-gaussian shape, depending on the time of increment. This indicates that the PC-index exhibits intermittency, previously detected in solar wind and auroral electrojet index fluctuations. The PC-index probability distribution functions were fitted by the functional form proposed by Castaing et al. [Velocity probability density functions of high Reynolds number turbulence. Physica D. 46, 177–200, 1990] to describe intermittency phenomena in ordinary turbulent fluid flows. The agreement between the fitting parameters obtained for the PC index and those reported before for solar wind magnetic field fluctuations is within 30%; which is noticeably less than the difference between the same parameters of solar wind and the AE-index fluctuations. This fact indicates that the PC index reflects the solar wind influence on the high-latitude magnetosphere, especially during the summer.     

全球空间天气路线图及对中国的启示

随着科技的发展,空间天气对电力系统、通信导航系统和航天资产等遍布全球的技术基础设施的影响越来越深.需要加强对空间天气事件过程的理解,提升空间天气的预报能力,优化基础设施设计,从而减缓空间天气对社会造成的影响.基于这些需求,国际空间研究委员会(COSPAR)联合国际与日共存计划(ILWS)共同成立专家组,研究制定了全球2015-2025空间天气发展路线图.本文对该路线图进行介绍和解读,讨论该路线图对中国空间天气发展的启示.     

2 AU以内的“渐进型”太阳高能粒子事件模拟

太阳高能粒子（Solar Energetic Particle,SEP）事件是影响地球空间以及深空辐射环境的主要因素之一。“渐进型”太阳高能粒子事件中的高能粒子主要来自于日冕物质抛射（Coronal Mass Ejection,CME）所驱动的激波扩散加速（Diffusive Shock Acceleration,DSA）过程。CME驱动的激波在行星际的传播过程中,其结构不断演化,进而影响到高能粒子的加速过程。本文利用二维太阳高能粒子加速和传播模型,对发生于2014年4月18日的太阳高能粒子事件实例进行了数值模拟。模型考察了黄道面上2 AU的距离以内包含地球所在位置的4个不同点,分别计算了每个点上高能粒子的通量。数值模拟的结果表明：黄道面内不同位置的观察点,与激波波前的磁力线连接不同,从而导致观察点处高能粒子的通量有着显著的差异。该模型的计算结果可以为深空探测计划开展辐射环境研究提供必要的输入。     

防热结构的局部防热研究

对回收式返回器的分析结果表明,表面的突起物是防热结构局部过热的重要起因。分析了防热结构的局部过热现象,提出了一种局部防热结构设计分析方法。分析计算结果与地面试验和飞行结果进行了分析比较。