基于支持向量经验模态分解的故障率时间序列预测

 针对故障率时间序列的非线性与非平稳特性,提出一种基于支持向量经验模态分解(SVEMD)的预测方法。首先,将故障率时间序列分解为多个固有模态函数(IMF)与一个余量(RF),利用最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)预测时间序列两端的局部极值点,以抑制传统经验模态分解(EMD)的边缘效应;同时以LSSVM回归方式形成包络线,以取代传统EMD中的三次样条插值;然后,建立各IMF与RF的预测模型;最终,将各IMF与RF的预测结果相加以获得故障率时间序列的预测结果。仿真结果表明,该方法的预测精度较传统基于EMD的预测方法与单一预测方法有显著提高,可实现对故障率的准确预测。     

基于符号序列联合熵的航空发动机健康监控方法

引入信息熵理论,结合对多参数时间序列的符号化处理,探讨其在航空发动机健康监控中的应用.利用符号序列联合熵对航空发动机性能参数无序程度的描述,分析航空发动机健康状态及其演化方向.对两组实际飞行数据的实验分析表明,该方法描述的航空发动机的健康发展趋势与实际情况相吻合,能够较好反映航空发动机的健康状态,可以为航空发动机的健康...     

HPM对伪码脉冲无线电引信的压制干扰效应仿真

为了对高功率微波作用于伪码脉冲无线电引信的干扰效果进行分析,建立了引信信号处理模型并进行了计算机仿真。仿真结果表明,在频率对准的情况下,当 HPM进入引信距离门对回波信号造成压制时,由于 HPM的信号频带较宽,覆盖了多普勒滤波器带宽,多普勒滤波器的输出信号幅度仍可达到启动门限电平,压制干扰无效。     

基于永久散射体合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术的地面沉降监测

城市施工建设及地下水开采活动日益频繁，导致城市地面沉降问题日益严重。虽然传统地面沉降监测技术的精度较高，但成本也高。近年来，星载合成孔径雷达干涉测量(InSAR)技术发展起来，已被用于监测大范围地表形变，具有低成本、大面积、高精度等特点。首次采用永久散射体合成孔径雷达干涉测量(PSInSAR)技术，监测上海西南某区域2017—2021年间的地面沉降。结果显示:除一处楼房外，该区域大部分地区未发生沉降，最大沉降速率约-7.10 mm/a，最大沉降量约25.43 mm。采用该技术监测沉降，一方面节省了大量的人力和物力;另一方面，本研究成果对城市地表沉降的科学防治具有重要的参考意义。     

An improved cyclic multi model-eXtreme gradient boosting (CMM-XGBoost) forecasting algorithm on the GNSS vertical time series

The study of GNSS vertical coordinate time series forecasting is helpful for monitoring the crustal plate movement, dam or bridge deformation monitoring, and global or regional coordinate system maintenance. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm is a machine learning algorithm that can evaluate features, and it has a great potential and stability for long-span time series forecasting. This study proposes a multi-model combined forecasting method based on the XGBoost algorithm. The method constitutes a new time series as features through the fitting and forecasting results of the forecasting model. The XGBoost model is then used for forecasting. In addition, this method can obtain higher precision forecasting results through circulation. To verify the performance of the forecasting method, 1095 epochs of data in the Up coordinate of 16 GNSS stations are selected for the forecasting test. Compared with the CNN-LSTM model, the experimental results of our forecasting method show that the mean absolute error (MAE) values are reduced by 30.23 %～52.50 % and the root mean square error (RMSE) values are reduced by 31.92 %～54.33 %. The forecasting results have higher accuracy and are highly correlated to the original time series, which can better forecast the vertical movement of the GNSS stations. Therefore, the forecasting method can be applied to the up component of the GNSS coordinate time series.     

基于小波神经网络的PIM功率时间序列预测

无源互调（passive intermodulation，PIM）是影响通信系统性能的关键因素之一。研究表明，PIM信号并非一个定值，而是随时间变化的非平稳信号。基于PIM功率信号的时间序列特性，文章提出基于小波神经网络的PIM功率时间序列预测方法。首先，详细介绍小波神经网络预测模型及其预测方法；其次，以同轴连接器为验证对象，通过PIM实验测试系统获得3阶PIM功率的时间序列；最后，依据获得的PIM功率时间序列，结合构建的小波神经网络预测模型对后续的时间序列进行预测分析，并将预测结果与实验结果进行比较，从而验证小波神经网络在预测PIM功率时间序列方面的有效性。该研究对于开展PIM抑制技术具有一定的参考价值。     

基于发射时间序列的反舰导弹联合突防方法

为了使多型反舰导弹达到饱和攻击的目的,最理想的情况是同批次的异型导弹在同一时刻飞行到同一目标的防空区域。研究了单横队队形舰艇编队的异型导弹联合突防问题。针对舰艇编队时各个舰艇与目标的距离不同、反舰导弹的飞行速度不同、飞行航向不同等因素,建模求解了同批次异型导弹的发射时间序列。     

A method for satellite time series anomaly detection based on fast-DTW and improved-KNN

In satellite anomaly detection, there are some problems such as unbalanced sample distribution, fewer fault samples, and unobvious anomaly characteristics. These problems cause the extisted anomaly detection methods are difficult to train accurate classification model, and the accuracy of anomaly detection is hard to improve. At the same time, the monitoring data of satellite has high dimension and is difficult to extract effective features. Based on the DTW over-sampling method, this paper realizes the over-sampling of fault samples in satellite time series, and constructs a distributed and balanced time series data set. The Fast-DTW method is applied to calculate the distance between different time series, which can improve the speed of similarity calculation. KNN (K-Nearest Neighbor) method is applied for classification and the best classification result is obtained by search the optimal hyper-parameters k. The results show that the proposed method has high anomaly detection accuracy and consumes short calculation time.     

Smooth free-cycle dynamic soaring in unspecified shear wind via quadratic programming

Harvesting wind energy is promising for extending long-endurance flights, which can be greatly facilitated by a flight technique called dynamic soaring. The presented study is concerned with generating model-based trajectories with smooth control histories for dynamic soaring maneuvers exploiting wind gradients. The desired smoothness is achieved by introducing a trigonometric series parameterization for the controls, which are formulated with respect to the normalized time.Specifically, the per...