Availability modeling for periodically inspection system with different lifetime and repair-time distribution

Availability is a main feature of design and operation of all engineering system. Recently,availability evaluation of periodical inspection systems with different structures is at the center of attention due to the wide application in engineering. In this paper, an analytical and probabilistic availability model for periodical inspection system is proposed by a new recursively algorithm,which can achieve limiting average availability and instantaneous availability of periodical inspection system under arbitrary lifetime and repair-time distributions. Then three application examples are presented, the systems lifetime and repair-time are respectively fellow exponential/exponential,Weibull/normal and Weibull/lognormal distribution. Finally, a Weibull/lognormal system is studied to analyze the dynamic relationship between inspection period and availability. The results indicate that the proposed approach can provide the technology support for improving system availability and determining reasonable inspection period.     

A new structural reliability index based on uncertainty theory

The classical probabilistic reliability theory and fuzzy reliability theory cannot directly measure the uncertainty of structural reliability with uncertain variables,i.e.,subjective random and fuzzy variables.In order to simultaneously satisfy the duality of randomness and subadditivity of fuzziness in the reliability problem,a new quantification method for the reliability of structures is presented based on uncertainty theory,and an uncertainty-theory-based perspective of classical Cornell reliability index is explored.In this paper,by introducing the uncertainty theory,we adopt the uncertain measure to quantify the reliability of structures for the subjective probability or fuzzy variables,instead of probabilistic and possibilistic measures.We utilize uncertain variables to uniformly represent the subjective random and fuzzy parameters,based on which we derive solutions to analyze the uncertainty reliability of structures with uncertainty distributions.Moreover,we propose the Cornell uncertainty reliability index based on the uncertain expected value and variance.Experimental results on three numerical applications demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.     

基于雷达航迹的航空器质量估算

为保障基于轨迹运行的顺利实施,必须提高四维航迹预测的精度,而四维航迹的精准预测依赖于航空器质量准确估算。鉴于此,构建并分析了航空器能量模型;基于雷达航迹与航空器基础资料( BADA),提出了新型的航空器质量估算方法与步骤;利用最小二乘算法求解了航空器质量的估计值;分别基于预测航迹、雷达轨迹与QAR数据,采用相对误差作为评价指标,实施验证与分析。验证结果表明,提出的方法可将航空器质量估算误差控制在5%以内,从而能够有效地提高航迹预测精度。     

低轨卫星月影事件预报优化

针对卫星月影问题,提出了一种低轨卫星优化的月影预报策略,可以有效提高目前低轨卫星在轨管理时对月影事件预报的效率.结合仿真对产生月影事件的太阳、地球、月球的三体关系进行了分析,首先给出了月影产生的解析分析方法,并通过对一个三维月影影响模型的分析,得到了月影影响区间的判定要素——月影临界角;然后进一步通过对月影临界角的分析,提出了基于太阳与白道面的位置关系和月影临界角对低轨卫星月影事件的优化预报方法;最后基于大量的随机低轨卫星场景对本方法的正确性进行了验证.研究结果表明,此方法能够较大地提高月影预报效率,可以将月影预报频率从每月1次降低到每年2次,从而简化了低轨卫星在轨运行管理的任务复杂度,为卫星的在轨可靠运行提供支持.     

Percolation transition in temporal airport network

The air transportation system has a critical impact on the global economy. While the system reliability is essential for the operational management of air traffic, it remains challenging to understand the network reliability of the air transportation system. This paper focuses on how the global air traffic is integrated from local scale along with operational time. The integration process of air traffic into a temporally connected network is viewed as percolation process by increasing the integration time constantly. The critical integration time T_P which is found during the integration process can measure the global reliability of air traffic. The critical links at T_P are also identified, the delay of which will influence the global integration of the airport network. These findings may provide insights on the reliability management for the temporal airport network.     

基于GARCH族优选模型的舰船器材消耗预测

器材消耗量预测是做好技术保障工作的前提和基础,受设备生命周期、任务类型、海洋环境及使用设备人员的技能水平等因素的影响,舰船器材消耗量序列会随着时间的推移而产生波动现象,丛集效应和高峰厚尾特征明显。根据 AIC(A-Information Criterion)准则,对 GARCH(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity)族模型进行比较优选,寻求一种更为合适的预测模型,实现对消耗量的准确预测。     

小样本条件下多应力加速寿命试验预测方法

鉴于导弹中的电子设备价格昂贵、可用于试验的样本量少,在开展加速试验以及寿命预测的实际工作中通常为小样本的背景。文章研究探索小样本条件下多应力加速试验寿命预测方法,分别建立通用对数线性模型、 BAS-BP神经网络模型、灰色–支持向量回归模型,结合多应力加速试验数据在各应力条件下的样本容量分别为 56组、20组、10组、5组的情况下,比较 3种模型的预测效果,分析各模型的适用场合和时机,探索小样本条件下模型的选优问题,为小样本条件下多应力加速试验寿命预测提供有益的借鉴。     

航天火工装置可靠性设计、试验、评估实用方法与程序

鉴于火工装置研制现在缺少一套完整的可靠性设计、试验、评估方法与程序,文章从实际使用角度出发,总结了一套方法和程序,主要介绍火工装置可靠性模型,各个环节的可靠性设计、试验方法,并叙述了现型号使用的可靠性评估方法和程序。     

基于三机冷备份的遥感器计算机系统冗余设计

文章对当前比较流行的计算机冗余模型进行了分析和比较,制定出了三机冷备份的冗余计算机结构,并对关键电路进行了设计。     

火箭发动机涡轮泵故障检测及预测算法研究

涡轮泵作为液体火箭发动机的核心部件,恶劣的工作环境和极高的转速使其易发生组件断裂、烧蚀等问题。为了对液体火箭发动机的涡轮泵进行健康管理,提出针对某型液体火箭发动机涡轮泵的数据驱动故障检测、故障预测及健康状态评估方法。在某型液体火箭发动机试车数据集上,通过对涡轮泵轴、径、切向振动数据进行对应的时域、频域特征处理后,送入训练好的ResNet网络、自主设计的图像特征识别算法以及退化模式线性回归模型,分别实现了对该型液体火箭发动机涡轮泵的故障检测、预测及健康状态评估,具有较高的准确性。