民用航空器四维航迹预测技术综述

民用航空器四维航迹预测是保障飞行安全、提升运行效率、缓解航班延误、倡导绿色飞行的有效支撑和重要保证.四维航迹预测的研究集中于如下领域:预测结构与流程、预测模型与方法、误差分析与精度提升,其中航迹预测模型与方法是核心,主要包括混合估计模型、质点运动模型与机器学习方法.最后,总结与提炼开展民用航空器四维航迹预测研究的思路和热点,并相应指出了未来的研究方向.     

利用重要性采样的时差-频差联合估计算法

针对无源定位中参考信号真实值未知的时差(TDOA)-频差(FDOA)联合估计问题,构建了一种新的时差-频差最大似然(ML)估计模型,并采用重要性采样(IS)方法求解似然函数极大值,得到时差-频差联合估计。算法通过生成时差-频差样本,并统计样本加权均值得到估计值,克服了传统互模糊函数(CAF)算法只能得到时域和频域采样间隔整数倍估计值的问题,且不存在期望最大化(EM)等迭代算法的初值依赖和收敛问题。推导了时差-频差联合估计的克拉美罗下界(CRLB),并通过仿真实验表明,算法的计算复杂度适中,估计精度优于CAF算法和EM算法,在不同信噪比条件下估计误差接近CRLB。     

基于稀疏表示和近似(e)0范数约束的宽带信号DOA估计

针对宽带信号的波达方向(DOA)估计问题,在稀疏框架下提出一种近似(e)0范数约束的宽带信号DOA估计新算法.首先对宽带信号进行预处理,得到同一参考频率点下的接收数据,然后对其协方差矩阵元素进行加和平均运算,得到一个低维的观测向量,并在稀疏框架下进行稀疏表示,最后利用截断(e)1函数设定权值,构造逼近(e)0范数约束的稀疏重构方法,进而重构信号,获得宽带信号的DOA估计.仿真结果表明,相比于传统的宽带信号DOA估计算法,所提算法具有更高的分辨率和估计精度.     

基于故障数据的某型导弹失效风险排序方法

以某型导弹寿命预测为研究背景,按专业将该型导弹分为弹体、动力系统、电子电气设备等8个分系统,采用FTA-FMMEA方法分别对其进行失效模式和机理分析,并引入严酷度等级和失效模式发生概率等级,构建失效模式风险评价模型,对导弹各分系统的失效危害度进行定量分析。根据服役期间导弹现场失效数据并结合先验信息,提出了基于Bayes估计的各失效模式发生概率求取方法,给出了导弹各分系统的失效排序,确定了导弹薄弱环节,为后续贮存寿命预估提供依据。     

无失效试验数据系统可靠性评估方法研究

理论上,样本量越大,通过估计得出的值越精确。但许多武器装备造价昂贵,危险性高,不可能做大量的现场试验进行可靠性分析,面临着如何探求无失效情况下高可靠性装备的评估问题。文中基于元件的无失效成败型试验数据,研究了指数型元件组成系统的可靠性评仆方法。     

Duane模型的导数最小二乘估计

 针对传统最小二乘估计仅仅考虑回归模型曲线本身的试验样本,不能同时对曲线动态变化规律进行描述、未能充分利用模型与数据信息的问题,依据在一次观测中待定参数的取值应使得随机样本与模型各阶导函数在概率尺度下具有最小距离的原理,通过构造模型曲线导数意义下的损失函数,提出了一种能够综合利用模型与试验数据导数信息的导数最小乘方估计方法,推广了传统最小二乘估计的模型条件与使用范围。并结合复杂可修产品可靠性增长的Duane模型给出了参数的一般导数最小二乘估计与最佳导数最小二乘估计式,证明了模型参数的导数最小二乘估计较传统最小二乘估计具有更好的统计性质。为实际中确定模型曲线,进行工程预测提供了一条新的技术途径。     

卫星自主导航系统存在常值偏差的滤波方法研究

由于敏感器常值偏差对导航精度影响较大,因此有必要对其进行标定。考虑到传统常偏扩维算法计算量大,且可能出现数值病态的问题,提出了两步UKF算法,该算法对状态和偏差实施分离估计,从而达到解耦目的。不仅能够准确标定常值偏差,而且还可以提高导航精度。近地卫星自主导航系统仿真结果验证了该算法的有效性。     

Higher order ionospheric propagation effects on GPS radio occultation signals

With the increasing number of remote sensing satellites using the GPS radio occultation technique for atmospheric sounding, the estimation of higher order ionospheric effects and their mitigation have become relevant and important. Due to long ionospheric limb paths, GPS signals are strongly affected by ionospheric refraction during radio occultation. Standard dual-frequency GPS measurements may be used to estimate the first order term of the refractive index. However, non-linear terms such as the second and third order ionospheric terms and ray path bending effects are not considered in occultation measurements so far. Analysing selected CHAMP–GPS occultation events different higher order ionospheric terms are estimated and their effects on dual-frequency range estimation and total electron content (TEC) estimation are discussed. We have found that the separation between the GPS L1 and L2 ray paths exceeds the kilometer level during occultation for a vertical TEC level of more than 160 TEC units. Corresponding errors in the GPS dual-frequency range estimation and TEC estimation are found to exceed the meter and 10 TEC units level, respectively.     

基于瞬时相位的BPSK信噪比估计算法

通过对加性高斯白噪声条件下正弦型信号瞬时相位分布情况进行研究,提出了一种新的BPSK(Binary Phase Shift Keying)信噪比估计方法.含噪信号瞬时相位的方差与信噪比之间存在近似线性的一一对应关系,以此为基础通过将含噪信号的估计方差与理论值相比较获得信噪比估计值.该方法直接对基带过采样信号进行处理,不需要事先进行符号定时与同步.使用计算机仿真测试了算法的估计性能,并与高阶累积量方法和子空间分解方法进行了比较,结果表明该算法具有更高的估计精度.      

Simulations of absorbed dose on the phantom surface of MATROSHKA-R experiment at the ISS

The health risks associated with exposure to various components of space radiation are of great concern when planning manned long-term interplanetary missions, such as future missions to Mars. Since it is not possible to measure the radiation environment inside of human organs in deep space, simulations based on radiation transport/interaction codes coupled to phantoms of tissue equivalent materials are used. However, the calculated results depend on the models used in the codes, and it is therefore necessary to verify their validity by comparison with measured data. The goal of this paper is to compare absorbed doses obtained in the MATROSHKA-R experiment performed at the International Space Station (ISS) with simulations performed with the three-dimensional Monte Carlo Particle and Heavy-Ion Transport code System (PHITS). The absorbed dose was measured using passive detectors (packages of thermoluminescent and plastic nuclear track detectors) placed on the surface of the spherical tissue equivalent phantom MATROSHKA-R, which was exposed aboard the ISS in the Service Zvezda Module from December 2005 to September 2006. The data calculated by PHITS assuming an ISS shielding of 3 g/cm² and 5 g/cm² aluminum mass thickness were in good agreement with the measurements. Using a simplified geometrical model of the ISS, the influence of variations in altitude and wall mass thickness of the ISS on the calculated absorbed dose was estimated. The uncertainties of the calculated data are also discussed; the relative expanded uncertainty of absorbed dose in phantom was estimated to be 44% at a 95% confidence level.