发展性教学理论与网络环境下教学改革探讨

本文对赞科夫发展性教学理论的基本观点进行了分析,对发展性教学理论对我国教学改革的影响进行了概括,对发展性教学理论与网络环境下教学改革进行了探讨。     

加强创新教育 适应航天工业发展——电子工艺与管理专业建设探索

本文结合电子工艺与管理专业适应航天工业发展的改革,阐述了综合素质教育在专业建设的重要性。并根据航天工业特殊要求,对教学过程、教学方法、教学内容等方面全面地进行规划和培养学生的综合素质进行了全面论述。     

经济增长非线性时序预测方法研究

分析了经济系统非线性时诹预测的国内外研究现状、现代经济增长模型在预测中存在的不足之处，阐述了经济增长系统的非线性、动态反馈性、开放性等特征，并应用非线性时序理论，研究了经济增长的非线性时序预测问题，给出了经济增长非线性时序预测的方法。     

The low and middle latitude semi-annual anomaly in NmF2 near noon: A statistical study

Hourly values of the F2-layer peak density, NmF2, measured by 99 ionosonde stations near noon from 1957 to 2010 at low and middle geomagnetic latitudes of the northern and southern geographic hemispheres are used in a statistical study of the F2-region semi-annual anomaly. The equinox/winter and equinox/summer geomagnetically quiet NmF2 ratios, X and Y, taken near noon over each ionosonde for approximately the same winter, equinox, and summer solar activity conditions are analyzed. The conditional probabilities of occurrences of X and Y in intervals of X and Y, the most frequent values of X and Y, the mean expected values of X and Y, and the conditional probability to observe the F2-region semi-annual anomaly are calculated and studied for the fist time for low, moderate, and high solar activity conditions. These statistical parameters are averaged over 5° geomagnetic latitude interval in the northern and southern geographic hemispheres, and the trends in these averaged statistical characteristics of the NmF2 semi-annual anomaly are calculated and studied for the fist time. It is shown that the median approach can produce the incorrect conclusions about the absence of the NmF2 semi-annual anomaly.     

Equatorial vertical E × B drift velocities inferred from ionosonde measurements over Ouagadougou and the IRI-2007 vertical ion drift model

F-region vertical plasma drift velocities were deduced from the hourly hmF2 values acquired from ionogram data over a near dip equatorial station Ouagadougou (12.4°N, 358.5°E, dip angle 5.9°N) in Africa. Our results are compared against the global empirical model of Scherliess and Fejer (1999) incorporated in the IRI model (IRI-2007) for 1600 to 0800 LT from 1 year of data during sunspot maximum year of 1989 (yearly average solar flux intensity, F10.7 = 192) corresponding to the peak phase of solar cycle 22, under magnetically quiet conditions. The drifts are entirely downward between 2000 and 0500 LT bin for both techniques and the root mean square error (RMSE) between the modeled and the ionosonde vertical plasma drifts during these periods is 3.80, 4.37, and 4.74 m/s for June solstice, December solstice and equinox, respectively. Ouagadougou average vertical drifts show evening prereversal enhancement (PRE) velocity peaks (V_ZP) of about 16, 14, and 17 m/s in June solstice, December solstice, and equinox, respectively, at 1900–2000 LT; whereas global empirical model average drifts indicate V_ZP of approximately 33 m/s (June solstice), 29 m/s (December solstice), and 50 m/s (equinox) at 1800 LT. We find very weak and positive correlation (+0.10376) between modeled V_ZP versus F10.7, while ionosonde V_ZP against F10.7 gives worst and opposite correlation (−0.05799). The results also show that modeled V_ZP–Ap indicates good and positive correlation (+0.64289), but ionosonde V_ZP–Ap exhibits poor and negative correlation (−0.22477).     

基于小波变换的脉冲耦合神经网络预测模型及其应用

被称为第三代人工神经网络的脉冲耦合神经网络(PCNN)模型,以其耦合机制、脉冲输出两大基本特性广泛应用于图像处理等领域。文章在两大基本特性的基础上对PCNN进行了改进:增加了绝对误差控制公式;连接强度以相关系数来控制,调整阈值设置为最小误差;网络的运行机制与以往的PCNN原理有所不同;将ATrous小波变换与PCNN模型相结合,形成了组合预测模型。将改进后的组合模型用于年降雨量的预测中,以求检验模型的可行性。预测结果表明,基于小波变换的PCNN组合模型用在年降雨量预测中是可行的,并取得良好效果。为进一步深化PCNN的理论、拓宽PCNN的应用领域、解决水文水资源中的预测问题提供了新的思路和方法。     

Local debris congestion in the geosynchronous environment with population augmentation

Forecasting of localized debris congestion in the geostationary (GEO) regime is performed to investigate how frequently near-miss events occur for each of the longitude slots in the GEO ring. The present-day resident space object (RSO) population at GEO is propagated forward in time to determine current debris congestion conditions, and new probability density functions that describe where GEO satellites are inserted into operational orbits are harnessed to assess longitude-dependent congestion in “business-as-usual” launch traffic, with and without re-orbiting at end-of-life. Congestion forecasting for a 50-year period is presented to illustrate the need for appropriately executed mitigation measures in the GEO ring. Results indicate that localized debris congestion will double within 50 years under current 80% re-orbiting success rates.     

环境条件对相机焦面影响的实验研究

环境条件,特别是温度和压力环境的变化,对相机焦面位置有很大影响,从而影响摄影照片的像质。文章用实验的方法定量地分析了温度和压力环境变化对相机焦面的影响。     

改进灰色预测模型在对地攻击弹药需求预测中的应用

针对战时航空兵编队对地攻击的弹药需求问题,研究了灰色预测模型在弹药需求预测中的应用问题。首先,分析了影响弹药需求预测的主要因素;其次,分析了基本GM(1,1)模型存在的问题,提出了一种新的改进参数和时间响应序列的GM(1,1)模型;最后,分别用基本GM(1,1)模型和改进的GM(1,1)模型对一组弹药需求数列进行比较分析。结果表明,相对于基本GM(1,1)模型而言,改进的GM(1,1)模型的相对误差较小。     

民用飞机燃油箱热分析环境因素影响研究

准确计算分析民用飞机燃油箱热分析的环境因素是飞机适航取证必须掌握的一项重要技术。分别对中央翼油箱和机翼油箱的环境因素进行分析,通过计算气动加热因素、太阳辐射因素和地面辐射因素对燃油箱壁面温度的影响,得出民用飞机燃油箱热分析中环境因素的计算方法。