利用粒子群支持向量机预测轴流压气机机匣壁面压力

建立了基于粒子群优化的轴流压气机机匣压力支持向量机预测模型.利用支持向量机的强大非线性映射能力,实现了对某型轴流压气机机匣压力时间序列的非线性预测,并运用粒子群优化算法对支持向量机的重要参数进行了优化,增强了预测模型对混沌动力学的联想和泛化推理能力,提高了预测的精度和稳定性.而针对发动机台架试验数据的预测结果证明了方法...     

基于在线LS-SVM算法的变参数混沌时间序列预测

研究利用最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)预测变参数混沌时间序列。变参数混沌系统适合于描述现实中的复杂混沌现象,但由于参数的慢变导致系统动力学特性不断发生变化,基于Tan-kens嵌入定理的建模预测方法难以适用,其时间序列预测可以看作是小样本学习问题。最小二乘支持向量机是在二次损失函数下采用等式约束求解问题的一种支持向量机,保留支持向量机优点同时计算量大大减少。提出用一种具有遗忘机制的最小二乘支持向量机在线递推算法,并引入历史数据的高次项预测变参数混沌时间序列。对典型变参数混沌时间序列的预测结果表明,该方法具有较高预测精度,能快速跟踪预测变参数混沌时间序列。     

基于ARIMA模型的拉萨降水量时间序列分析与预测

应用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）模型对西藏拉萨地区1969年至2009年的年降水量资料进行建模分析。建立的模型通过了参数的显著性检验和模型的显著性检验。模型的实证分析表明在短期内模型具有较高的预测精度,ARIMA模型可以较好的应用于降水量的预测,对相关部门采取措施应对自然灾害提供了理论支持。     

弹道跟踪系统的数据融合

本文应用近代时序分析方法、样条函数和非线性回归分析理论，研究了弹道参数、系统误差及测量随机误差统计特性参数的联合估计问题，给出了各类参数的高精度估计。理论分析和仿真计算表明：本文所建的模型准确，参数估计方法精度高，应用本文方法能明显提高弹道跟踪数据质量。     

多级串联密封系统泄漏规律及应用研究

多级串联密封结构的泄漏过程非常复杂,其泄漏规律对多级密封结构的设计、检漏和密封安全评估等具有重要意义。建立了多级串联密封系统的数学模型,揭示了多级串联密封结构正压泄漏的漏率、漏量与泄漏时间关系的一般规律,通过三级密封系统泄漏的仿真计算实例和泄漏实验,验证了多级串联密封泄漏理论的正确性,并总结了多级串连密封泄漏规律的应用方法。     

旋转充液系统全飞行过程非线性动力学仿真

本文考虑一类刚认耦合的旋转充液系统的飞行动力学问题，在依据力学变分原理给出基本方程，导出全飞行过程运动状态方程的基础上，建立了相应的仿真模型。可能通过对Navier-Stokes方程求解和液体流动的惯性波振动特性，给出液体的反作用力矩。经过仿真实验，分析角运动的时间序列，给出了比较详尽的飞行不稳定机制分析结果。     

Median filtering algorithms for multichannel detectors

Particle detectors of worldwide networks are continuously measuring various secondary particle fluxes incident on Earth surface. At the Aragats Space Environmental Center (ASEC), the data of 12 cosmic ray particle detectors with a total of ∼280 measuring channels (count rates of electrons, muons and neutrons channels) are sent each minute via wireless bridges to a MySQL database. These time series are used for the different tasks of off-line physical analysis and for online forewarning services. Usually long time series contain several types of errors (gaps due to failures of high or low voltage power supply, spurious spikes due to radio interferences, abrupt changes of mean values of several channels or/and slowly trends in mean values due to aging of electronics components, etc.). To avoid erroneous physical inference and false alarms of alerting systems we introduce offline and online filters to “purify” multiple time-series. In the presented paper we classify possible mistakes in time series and introduce median filtering algorithms for online and off-line “purification” of multiple time-series.     

三硝基间苯二酚中硫酸测定的研究

本文研究了硫酸钡在氨水溶液中与ＥＤＴＡ的反应条件，提出用ＥＤＴＡ滴定法测定三硝基间苯二酚中的硫酸。本法准确度较高，稳定性好，操作简单，与样品标准值对照，结果满意。     

感应电能传输系统损耗分析

感应电能传输(CIPT)技术,是一种新型的电能传输方式,能实现无电气连接的电能传送.松耦合变压器的引入,使得耦合系数较常规变压器低,对系统损耗准确建模成为CIPT技术的关键问题.本文通过对CIPT各个元器件的功率损耗分析,研究各个功率模块损耗之间的耦合关系.以损耗关于原边线圈电流的泰勒展开式为基础,建立CIPT系统功率损耗模型及效率模型.为验证理论分析的正确性,设计制作了一个CIPT样机,通过对不同工况进行比较实验,证明了所建磁路模型、效率模型的正确性.提出的损耗分析方法能够用来指导CIPT系统的分析与设计.     

Noise analysis of continuous GPS coordinate time series for CMONOC

The Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) is one of the major scientific infrastructures, mainly using Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, to monitor crustal deformation in the Chinese mainland. In this paper, decade-long coordinate time series of 26 continuous GPS sites of CMONOC are analyzed for their noise content using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We study the noise properties of continuous GPS time series of CMONOC for the unfiltered, filtered solutions and also the common mode signals in terms of power law plus white noise model. In the spatial filtering, we remove for every time series a common mode error that was estimated from a modified stacking of position residuals from other sites within ∼1000 km of the selected site. We find that the common mode signal in our network has a combination of spatially correlated flicker noise and a common white noise with large spatial extent. We demonstrate that for the unfiltered solutions of CMONOC continuous GPS sites the main colored noise is a flicker process, with a mean spectral index of ∼1. For the filtered solutions, the main colored noise is a general power law process, indicating that a major number of the filtered regional solutions have a combination of noise sources or local effects. The velocity uncertainties from CMONOC continuous GPS coordinate time series may be underestimated by factors of 8–16 if a pure white noise model is assumed. In addition, using a white plus flicker noise model, the median values of velocity errors for the unfiltered solutions are 0.16 (north), 0.17 (east) and 0.58 (vertical) mm/yr, and the median values for the filtered solutions are 0.09 (north), 0.10 (east) and 0.40 (vertical) mm/yr.