基于相关系数AR模型的陀螺随机漂移分析方法

陀螺漂移序列的均值和方差随时间不断变化,不属于传统的相关函数平稳序列,因此采用传统的平稳序列分析方法对其处理必然导致较大的误差．通过对大量陀螺漂移数据分析发现,大多数陀螺漂移序列的相关系数并不随时问的平移而变化,是时间间隔的单变量函数,因此,它们属于相关系数平稳序列．在此基础上,建立了基于相关系数AR模型的陀螺漂移分析方法．该方法首先对陀螺漂移数据是否属于相关系数平稳序列进行判别,然后采用相关系数AR模型建模并给出模型参数的估计方法,最后可根据得到的相关系数AR模型对陀螺漂移进行估计和补偿．由于相关系数平稳序列能够对陀螺漂移序列的本质特征进行描述,因此较传统方法具有更高的建模精度和补偿精度．     

基于贯序正则极端学习机的时间序列预测及其应用

为实现对液压泵特征参数的在线预测,提出一种贯序正则极端学习机(SRELM),并研究了基于SRELM的预测方法.SRELM根据结构风险最小化原理实现网络训练,其网络权值可随新样本的逐次加入而递推求解,具有泛化能力强与训练速度快的优点,因此适于特征参数的在线预测.基于SRELM的预测方法利用特征参数训练SRELM模型,以逐...     

传感器位置误差条件下仅用到达频率差的无源定位性能分析

传感器自身的位置误差对辐射源的无源定位精度可能有较大影响,详细分析并推导了在存在传感器位置误差条件下,仅使用到达频率差(FDOA)参数对辐射源定位时,定位精度的克拉美罗下限(CRLB)和均方误差(MSE).在传感器位置误差条件下,提出仅用FDOA来同时估计辐射源和传感器位置的泰勒级数方法,并证明该定位方法理论上的MSE...     

基于ARIMA模型的拉萨降水量时间序列分析与预测

应用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）模型对西藏拉萨地区1969年至2009年的年降水量资料进行建模分析。建立的模型通过了参数的显著性检验和模型的显著性检验。模型的实证分析表明在短期内模型具有较高的预测精度,ARIMA模型可以较好的应用于降水量的预测,对相关部门采取措施应对自然灾害提供了理论支持。     

单逆变器驱动的多相电机串联系统综述

为了实现同一逆变器(VSI)供电的多电机独立运行的问题,近年来提出了一种新颖的基于广义零序谐波分量的多相电机串联系统。文章对这种新型的单逆变器驱动多相多电机串联系统的发展需求、工作原理、国内外研究概况等方面进行了详细地阐述,深入地分析了这种驱动系统的优缺点,总结了需要深入研究的关键技术。     

Effects on noise properties of GPS time series caused by higher-order ionospheric corrections

Higher-order ionospheric (HOI) effects are one of the principal technique-specific error sources in precise global positioning system (GPS) analysis. These effects also influence the non-linear characteristics of GPS coordinate time series. In this paper, we investigate these effects on coordinate time series in terms of seasonal variations and noise amplitudes. Both power spectral techniques and maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) are used to evaluate these effects quantitatively and qualitatively. Our results show an overall improvement for the analysis of global sites if HOI effects are considered. We note that the noise spectral index that is used for the determination of the optimal noise models in our analysis ranged between −1 and 0 both with and without HOI corrections, implying that the coloured noise cannot be removed by these corrections. However, the corrections were found to have improved noise properties for global sites. After the corrections were applied, the noise amplitudes at most sites decreased, among which the white noise amplitudes decreased remarkably. The white noise amplitudes of up to 81.8% of the selected sites decreased in the up component, and the flicker noise of 67.5% of the sites decreased in the north component. Stacked periodogram results show that, no matter whether the HOI effects are considered or not, a common fundamental period of 1.04 cycles per year (cpy), together with the expected annual and semi-annual signals, can explain all peaks of the north and up components well. For the east component, however, reasonable results can be obtained only based on HOI corrections. HOI corrections are useful for better detecting the periodic signals in GPS coordinate time series. Moreover, the corrections contributed partly to the seasonal variations of the selected sites, especially for the up component. Statistically, HOI corrections reduced more than 50% and more than 65% of the annual and semi-annual amplitudes respectively at the selected sites.     

用纽曼随机有限元分析复合材料回旋结构的可靠性

将纽曼级数展开应用于蒙特卡罗随机有限元，对每一次随机抽样，只需一次形成刚度矩阵，进行前代、回代及矩阵的乘法和加法（减法）运算，可使随机有限元计算时间大为缩短。然后采用蒙特卡罗直接比较法，计算一复合材料回旋结构的可靠性。     

基于时间序列的空中交通流量灰预测模型算法

利用灰色预测理论,给出了一种空域内空中交通流量进行预测分析的算法——空中交通流量灰预测法,并利用Matlab软件作为计算工具,对管制区域、机场等空域流量的预测进行了仿真,计算结果以图表和图形的形式给出直观说明,验证了该算法的有效性。     

Combining frequency and time domain models to forecast space weather

Space weather series incorporate several distinct components, cycles at multiple frequencies, irregular trends, and nonlinear variability. The cycles are stochastic, i.e., the amplitude varies over time. Similarly, the trend is stochastic: the slope and direction of trending change repeatedly. This study sets out a combined model using both frequency and time domain methods, in two stages. In the first stage, a frequency domain algorithm is estimated and forecasted. In the second stage, the forecast is used as an input in a neural network. The combined model also includes a term enabling the model to react inversely to large deviations between the actual values and forecast. The models are evaluated using two data sets, the hemispheric power data obtained from the Polar Orbiting Environment satellites, and the Aa geomagnetic index. All the series are at a daily resolution. Forecasting experiments are run over horizons of 1–7 days. The models are estimated using a moving window or adaptive approach. The combined model consistently achieves the most accurate results. Among single equation methods, the frequency domain model is more accurate for the geomagnetic index because it is able to capture the underlying cycles more effectively. In the hemispheric power series, the cycles are less pronounced, so that time domain methods are more accurate, except at very short horizons. Nevertheless, in both data sets, the combined model works well because the frequency domain algorithm captures cyclical behavior, while the neural net is better able to capture short-term dependence and trending.