End-to-End Modeling of the Solar Terrestrial System

Traditionally modeling for space science has concentrated on developing simulations for individual components of the solar terrestrial system. In reality these regions are coupled together. This coupling can be as simple as the driving of the magnetosphere – ionosphere – thermosphere system by the solar wind or as a complicated as the feedback of the ionospheric conductivity and currents on the magnetosphere. As part of the CISM project we are beginning a concentrated effort to compressively model the entire system. This approach includes chains of models. In the first chain physics based numerical models are utilized while in the second chain empirical models are coupled together. The first half of this paper discusses the numerical modeling approach by highlighting the coupling of pairs of regions within the system. In the second section we present results from empirical models which are combined to make long term forecasts of conditions in the geospace environment. It is expected that a validated and reliable forecast model for space weather can be obtained by combining the strongest elements of each chain.     

45°(N)纬度带的Klobuchar like电离层延迟季节修正模型与评估

电离层延迟是全球卫星导航系统（GNSS）的主要误差源之一。对于装配GNSS单频接收机的航空器,选择简单有效的Klobuchar广播电离层模型来改正电离层延迟误差,其修正率为50%～60%。针对45°（N）纬度带,提出了更高电离层修正需求。考虑到季节因素对中高纬度地区电离层的显著影响,利用GIMs（Global Ionospheric Maps）分析了昼夜中TEC（Total Electron Content）的峰值和谷值随季节（年积日）的变化,建立了一种适用于45°（N）纬度带的Klobuchar like电离层模型。该模型不增加广播模型系数,新模型的夜间和VTEC高峰时电离层修正率分别达到了82%和80%,表明在穿刺点集中的45°(N)纬度地区使用该模型可以更精确地描述该地区的电离层,帮助航空器实现更高精度的定位。     

Ionospheric TEC disturbances over China during the strong geomagnetic storm in September 2017

From September 7 to 8, 2017, a G4-level strong geomagnetic storm occurred, which seriously impacted on the Earth’s ionosphere. In this work, the global ionospheric maps released by Chinese Academy of Sciences are used to investigate the ionospheric responses over China and its adjacent regions during the strong storm. The prominent TEC enhancements, which mainly associated with the neutral wind and eastward prompt penetration electric field, are observed at equatorial ionization anomaly crests during the main phase of the storm on 8 September 2017. Compared with those on 8 September, the TEC enhancements move to lower-latitude regions during the recovery phase on 9 September. A moderate storm occurred well before the start of the strong storm causes similar middle-latitude TEC enhancements on 7 September. However, the weak TEC depletion is observed at middle and low latitude on 9–10 September, which could be associated with the prevailing westward disturbance electric field or storm-time neural composition changes. In addition, the storm-time RMS and STD values of the ionospheric TEC grids over China increase significantly due to the major geomagnetic storm. The maximum of the RMS reaches 12.0 TECU, while the maximum of the STD reaches 8.3 TECU at ~04UT on 8 September.     

Doppler characteristics of HF spread Doppler clutter recorded at Alice Springs,Australia

Mean night-time peak power, Doppler shift and Doppler width of spread Doppler clutter (SDC) received by a high frequency backscatter radar located at Alice Springs, Australia from 2000 to 2018 is presented as a function of azimuth, sunspot number, time of year and frequency. The sampled region covers 90 degrees from West to North and includes the northern and southern equatorial anomalies.SDC peak power diminished across all azimuths during the winter solstice from around May to August (local winter) coinciding with the global decrease in F layer density due to the annual non-seasonal F2 anomaly but was generally constant during the equinoxes. In contrast, SDC Doppler width and inbound Doppler shift both increased during the equinoxes and exhibited azimuthal dependence related to the eastward equatorial plasma drift.SDC peak power increased with increasing sunspot number with frequency dependence during winter but not summer. Inbound Doppler shift and Doppler width increased with increasing sunspot number during equinox but not solstice with a strong dependence on azimuth and a weak dependence on frequency.     

Numerical study of traveling ionosphere disturbances with vertical incidence data

High frequency ionosphere vertical sounding, as an important and representative application for detecting the ionosphere and studying the characteristics of radio propagation, can be utilized to monitor the ionosphere continuously variation and to acquire the ionosphere asymmetrical features of diverse scale above the ionosphere vertical sounding stations. This is a first article on real time application of numerical methods to obtain the parameters of traveling ionosphere disturbances (TIDs) using vertical incident ionograms. In this paper, the distribution of ionosphere electron density with TIDs is constructed using a background ionosphere model superimposed a perturbation theory model. The background ionosphere electron density is modelled by the inversion of vertical incident ionograms which are observed before the appearance of the disturbance. Based on the fourth order Adams-Bashforth-Moulton (the so-called ABM) predictor corrector method, instead of Runge-Kutta method, the fast digital ray tracing method is established. According to process of the disturbed trace simulation and parameters inversion, the characteristic parameters of ionosphere disturbance at different detection time can be obtained in real time. The numerical analysis of TIDs is then captured completely.     

重力梯度对自由漂浮空间机器人姿态扰动分析

分析重力梯度对在轨运行的自由漂浮空间机器人姿态运动影响。由Lagrange方法建立自由漂浮空间机器人受重力梯度扰动的非线性动力学模型。首先,考虑无控关节自由状态,分析重力梯度对关节运动的影响。其次,利用相平面轨迹分析重力梯度对自由漂浮系统姿态运动影响。最后,由速度偏差曲线分析重力梯度对机械臂的影响。结果表明,当作用时间接近轨道周期或更长时,重力梯度引起的关节偏差已十分显著,且这种扰动作用主要由轨道偏心率决定;关节锁定时俯仰姿态受扰运动有周期振动与翻滚两种形式,若初始角速度满足一定限值可以保证俯仰运动不发生翻滚;当机械臂长时间工作时,忽略重力梯度将产生明显的末端定位误差。     

Traveling ionospheric disturbances observed at South African midlatitudes during the 29–31 October 2003 geomagnetically disturbed period

This paper presents traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) observations from GPS measurements over the South African region during the geomagnetically disturbed period of 29–31 October 2003. Two receiver arrays, which were along two distinct longitudinal sectors of about 18°-20° and 27°-28° were used in order to investigate the amplitude, periods and virtual propagation characteristics of the storm induced ionospheric disturbances. The study revealed a large sudden TEC increase on 28 October 2003, the day before the first of the two major storms studied here, that was recorded simultaneously by all the receivers used. This pre-storm enhancement was linked to an X-class solar flare, auroral/magnetospheric activities and vertical plasma drift, based on the behaviour of the geomagnetic storm and auroral indices as well as strong equatorial electrojet. Diurnal trends of the TEC and foF2 measurements revealed that the geomagnetic storm caused a negative ionospheric storm; these parameters were depleted between 29 and 31 October 2003. Large scale traveling ionospheric disturbances were observed on the days of the geomagnetic storms (29 and 31 October 2003), using line-of-sight vertical TEC (vTEC) measurements from individual satellites. Amplitude and dominant periods of these structures varied between 0.08–2.16 TECU, and 1.07–2.13 h respectively. The wave structures were observed to propagate towards the equator with velocities between 587.04 and 1635.09 m/s.     

太阳活动低年低纬地区VTEC 变化特性分析

利用福州台站(26.1°N, 119.3°E, 磁纬14.4°N)电离层闪烁与TEC监测仪2006-2010年的观测数据, 对该地区垂直总电子含量(VTEC)进行时间变化特性分析. 结果表明, 春秋冬三季的VTEC平均最高值出现在06:00UT, 夏季出现在08:00UT, 所有季节的平均最低值均出现在21:00UT; VTEC变化存在季节异常和弱冬季异常, 春秋季节高, 冬夏季节低, 夏季VTEC比冬季低且最大值出现时间延迟; VTEC在2006-2009年呈现下降的变化趋势, 2010年开始增强, 年际变化与太阳活动及地磁活动变化趋势具有较好的对应关系; VTEC变化与太阳活动存在很好的相关性, 相关系数达到0.5以上, 地磁活动则显示了弱相关的特性; F_10.7与VTEC的相关性随着每天Kp指数总值Σ_kp的增大而减小.      

磁暴对赤道地区L波段电离层闪烁的影响研究

利用赤道地区Vamimo站闪烁数据, 选取两次典型大磁暴时段重点分析, 对比磁暴发生前、发生时以及发生后连续几天电离层幅度闪烁强度和发生率的变化, 引入瑞利elax-elax泰勒不稳定性(Rayleigh-Taylor, R-T不稳定性)线性增长率γ₀, 对磁暴影响闪烁的机制进行初步探讨. 结果表明, 磁暴可能触发闪烁发生, 也可能抑制闪烁发生, 这既与观测季节有关, 也与磁暴不同发展阶段的地方时有关. 触发发生于闪烁少发季节磁暴主相所在的午夜至黎明时段, 可能是磁层穿透电离层的东向电场所致; 抑制发生于闪烁多发季节磁暴恢复相所在的午夜前时段, 可能是西向电场作用的结果. 磁暴发生时的电场变化可能是抑制或触发闪烁的主导因素, 但仍需进一步分析研究.      

Ionospheric disturbances on 8 September, 2010: Was it connected with the incoming moderate Chongqing earthquake?

Earthquake prediction stimulates the searches for a correlation between seismic activity and ionospheric anomalies. Contrary to common focuses on strong earthquakes, we report the ionospheric disturbances, 2 days before a moderate Ms = 4.7 Chongqing earthquake (29.4°N, 105.5°E, depth = 7.0 km, occurred at 21:21 LT, 10 September, 2010) with the data of ground-based ionosondes and IGS receivers. The data covering the period under the quiet geomagnetic conditions and a geomagnetic storm was analyzed with upper and lower bounds. It is found that there were significant enhancements of foF2 and total electron content (TEC) on the afternoon of 8 September, 2010, with a limited area close to the epicentre, which was different from the feature of ionospheric perturbations triggered by the geomagnetic storm on 15 September. Taking into account the heliogeomagnetical condition, we conclude that the observed ionospheric enhancements were very likely associated with the forthcoming moderate Chongqing earthquake, which implies that the relationship between the amplitudes of ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes is very complicated.