航空运输业与国民经济关联性研究

讨论了航空运输业与国民经济之间的关联性。根据投入产出法建立了衡量航空运输业与国民经济之间关联性的相关模型,在2002年中国投入产出表的基础上,通过计算和比较航空运输业和其他重要产业部门的直接消耗系数、完全消耗系数、直接分配系数、影响力系数和感应度系数,得出了航空运输业在国民经济各部门中的相对位置,以及对其他产业部门的影响力和制约度。     

基于集对分析的混合型多属性目标威胁评估

针对空袭目标属性权重为区间数且属性值为实数、区间数和模糊语言值相结合的混合型多属性威胁评估问题,提出了一种简洁、直观且计算量少的基于集对分析的评估方法,并通过实例验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

基于偏差值的航空发动机参数标准化修正模型

考虑到大气温度、大气湿度和燃烧热值等因素的影响,在第三相似理论的基础上提出了一种基于气路参数偏差值的标准化修正模型,以发动机生产厂家的历史数据为学习样本,建立了多元非线性超定方程组,采用高斯牛顿迭代法进行模型中未知参数的回归求解.使用该模型对测试集数据进行偏差值求解,并把结果与其他模型求解的偏差值进行对比,结果表明:修正后的标准化模型具有更高的精度,更接近于厂家系统的原始模型,具有较高的创新性和实用价值.      

基于非参量法的空战态势评估分析

为了改进现有基于非参量法的空战态势评估模型,描述了空战态势评估基本问题,阐述了空战态势评估算法的发展脉络,分析了目前构造的态势评估函数没有体现方位角与进入角对态势影响的耦合关系,双方速度以及能量对态势影响的非线性等问题,提出了从空战武器攻击区的角度重新构造态势评估函数的思想,为进一步研究奠定了基础。     

Research of Step-down Stress Accelerated Degradation Data Assessment Method of a Certain Type of Missile Tank

The performance degradation rates of the missile tank are generally time-varying functions uneasily evaluated by general classical evaluation methods. This paper develops a segmented nonlinear accelerated degradation model (SNADM) based on the equivalent method of accumulative damage theory, which tackles the problem that product life is difficult to be determined with degradation rate being a function of the variable of time. A segmented expression of the function of population accumulative degradation is derived. And combined with nonlinear function, an accelerated degradation function, i.e., SNADM is obtained. The parameters of the SNADM are identified by numerical iteration, and the statistical function of degradation track is extrapolated. The reliability function is determined through the type of random process of the degradation distribution. Then an evaluation of product storage life is undertaken by combining the statistical function of degradation track, reliability function and threshold. An example of a missile tank undergoes a step-down stress accelerated degradation test (SDSADT), in which the results with the SNADM and the classical method are evaluated and compared. The technology introduced is validated with the resultant coincidence of both evaluated and field storage lives.     

基于态势评估及DDPG算法的一对一空战格斗控制方法

已有的空中格斗控制方法未综合考虑基于专家知识的态势评估及通过连续性速度变化控制空战格斗的问题。基于深度确定性策略梯度（DDPG）强化学习算法,在态势评估函数作为强化学习奖励函数的基础上,设计综合考虑飞行高度上下限、飞行过载以及飞行速度上下限的强化学习环境;通过全连接的载机速度控制网络与环境奖励网络,实现DDPG算法与学习环境的交互,并根据高度与速度异常、被导弹锁定时间以及格斗时间设计空战格斗结束条件;通过模拟一对一空战格斗,对该格斗控制方法在环境限制学习、态势评估得分以及格斗模式学习进行验证。结果表明：本文提出的空战格斗控制方法有效,能够为自主空战格斗进一步发展提供指导。     

Reliability assessment of engine electronic controllers based on Bayesian deep learning and cloud computing

The reliability of an Engine Electronic Controller (EEC) attracts attention, which has a critical impact on aircraft engine safety. Reliability assessment is an important part of the design phase. However, the complex composition of EEC and the characteristic of the Phased-Mission System (PMS) lead to the difficulty of assessment. This paper puts forward an advanced approach, considering the complex products and uncertain mission profiles to evaluate the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) in the design phase. The failure mechanisms of complex components are deduced by Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL) intelligent algorithm. And copious samples of reliability simulation are solved by cloud computing technology. Based on the result of BDL and cloud computing, simulations are conducted with the Physics of Failure (PoF) theory and Failure Behavior Model (FBM). This reliability assessment approach can evaluate MTBF of electronic products without reference to physical tests. Finally, an EEC is applied to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the method.     

基于ETA和CREAM的跑道侵入风险评价方法研究

为了防范跑道侵入风险,利用事件树分析(ETA)方法,按照事件发展的逻辑顺序对跑道侵入过程进行了分析,考虑了在管制员、飞行员、地面车辆驾驶员失效情况下,导致跑道侵入的各种情况。同时采用认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM),分析了这一过程中管制员、飞行员、地面车辆驾驶员的失误概率,并在事件树分析框架下计算了总体失效概率。分析和计算过程是跑道侵入事件概率安全评估的探索和尝试,为跑道侵入的安全分析提供了量化参考。     

基于任务协同的有人机/无人机 对海攻击作战效能评估研究

通过分析攻击敌海上舰船目标过程中有人机/无人机编队的作战使用方式及影响其作战效能的主要因素,建立了有人机/无人机编队协同攻击海上目标的作战效能评估指标体系,运用ADC法构建了有人机/无人机混合编队攻击敌舰船目标作战效能评估模型,通过算例证明了该方法适应于有人机/无人机编队的作战效能评估,为有人机/无人机协同作战决策提供了有效的参考依据。     

基于非线性加权的管制系统灰色综合风险评估

从运行过程出发,将管制系统分解为飞行情报服务报告、机场管制、进近管制、区域管制四个子过程,得到了管制过程中的不安全因素,建立管制系统风险评估指标体系,利用网络分析法（ANP）确定各指标权重。基于非线性加权的灰色综合模型对管制系统进行风险评估,并结合某系统实例进行计算,验证了评估方法的有效性与准确性。