Solar wind-driven electron radiation belt response functions at 100-min time scales

We present a simple yet numerically robust technique, using autoregressive linear filters, to remove unwanted “colored noise” from solar wind and radiation belt electron data at sub-daily resolution. The remaining signal is then studied using finite impulse response linear prediction filters to represent the driven portion of the linear dynamics that describe the coupling between solar wind speed and electron flux. Sub-daily resolution response profiles covering magnetic L-shells between 1.1 and 8.0 R_E are presented which are consistent with daily resolution response functions. Namely, while there is strong global coherence governing electron flux dynamics, there are at least two distinct responses. The first response is an immediate dropout of electrons between L = 4 and L = 7 that is at least a partly adiabatic effect associated with enhancements in the ring current. This is followed by a 1–2 day delayed enhancement across the same L-shells that is likely a result of increased radial diffusion. The second response is an immediate enhancement seen between L = 3 and L = 4 with a typical duration of less than one day. Plausible explanations for this second response are briefly discussed, but neither empirical nor theoretical evidence can establish conclusively a definite physical cause. Finally, the response profiles show significant solar cycle and seasonal dependencies, indicating that better model output might be achieved with: (1) additional simultaneous solar wind inputs; (2) more sophisticated dynamical model structures capable of incorporating non-linear feedback; and/or (3) time-adaptive linear filters that can track non-stationary dynamics in time.     

单体建筑在点声源环境中对预测点噪声等级的影响

为了提高噪声评价方法的可靠性，减化噪声评价工作程序，实现环境噪声评价自动化，从几何角度分析了点声源环境中，单体建筑随空间位置不同，对预测点噪声等级的不同影响。介绍了用VC 6．0语言对点声源环境中只有单体建筑存在时，预测点的噪声等级进行程序设计的方法及流程，编写的程序操作简单，实现了相关参数输入后(手工输入或从AutoCAD图纸读入)，计算机自动处理、输出结果，通过与外部程序接口调用Matlab，绘制等声级图，结果直观明了。     

导弹武器预研阶段可靠性预计方法

介绍了可靠性预计的概念、作用和方法,阐述了导弹预研阶段可靠性预计的重要性。讨论了预研阶段预计导弹可靠性的步骤和选取方法的原则。     

GNSS最优载波相位平滑伪距研究

平滑常数是影响载波相位平滑伪距精度的关键参数,实际数据处理时主要依据经验设定平滑常数。这种主观设定过程缺乏理论依据,无法达到最优平滑效果。针对此问题,以适用于实时GNSS载波相位平滑伪距的经典Hatch递推滤波算法为基础,在连续时间域上分析了载波相位平滑伪距误差的主要构成,给出了总误差估算公式,分析了平滑常数对平滑精度的影响传导机制。进一步,采用令平滑总误差最小为目标的极值法推导给出了最优载波相位平滑常数的计算公式,给出了最优载波相位平滑伪距的完整处理步骤。最优平滑常数算法在数学意义上最优,大幅压缩了伪距测量误差,又不会引入过大的电离层发散误差。通过两个实际算例,证明了算法有效性。     

基于改进ConvNeXt模型的压气机变几何系统T-step预测方法

为了实时监控航空发动机压气机变几何系统的状态并获取警告信号，提出一种基于改进ConvNeXt 模型的T步（T-step） 预测方法。与仿真数据和特定试验条件下生成的数据集相比，T-step预测方法采用了飞机数据采集系统记录的实际飞行数据。 证实了采用改进ConvNeXt模型预测压气机变几何系统参数的可行性，并在发动机过渡状态和稳态下分别进行了试验验证。结果 表明：采用改进ConvNeXt模型的T步（T-step）预测方法能精准地预测压气机VSV角度和VBV开度的变化，最低可达2.132°和 7.077°，预测误差在可接受范围内。该方法能识别和预测各类型航空发动机不同运行状态的变几何系统参数的角度，获得相对准 确的结果。     

状态预测神经网络控制应用于小型可回收火箭

随着商业航天的到来，可重复使用运载器的研究受到广泛关注，以SpaceX为代表的商业航天公司研发的部分可回收火箭表现出了前所未有的竞争力。为了研发可回收火箭技术，翎客航天利用民间工业力量研制了RLV-T3小型可回收火箭验证机，并在该验证机上通过数百次试验逐渐掌握了垂直起降（VTVL）技术。主要介绍了翎客航天在VTVL技术中的一项动力控制技术，提出了状态预测神经网络控制（SPNNC）算法。该算法具有鲁棒性强、适用范围广、控制参数易调整等优点。详细地描述了该算法的原理，并通过Simulink对SISO和MIMO 2种系统进行了仿真。同时详细地论述了将状态预测神经网络控制算法应用于RLV-T3小型可回收火箭的飞行及回收的试验，包括RLV-T3小型可回收火箭的基本特点、控制难点、存在的问题，飞行过程中各物理量的曲线和试验结论。经试验验证，状态预测神经网络控制算法具有良好的控制性能，基于该控制技术，即状态预测神经网络控制算法的RLV-T3小型可回收火箭验证机可以安全地实现垂直起飞、弹道飞行、空中悬停、软着陆回收全流程。     

线谱对(LSP)分析在G.729语音编码算法中的应用

本文介绍了线谱对(Linear Spectrum Pair,LSP)分析的基本原理及其在G.729中的应用,同时分析比较了LSP参数与常用的线性预测系数LPC的区别,仿真结果表明,LSP参数的抗干扰能力远比LPC系数的抗干扰能力强。     

PREDICTION OF MECHANICAL PROPERTY OF WHISKER REINFORCED METAL MATRIX COMPOSITE: PART-Ⅰ. MODEL AND FORMULATION

Based on study of strain distribution in whisker reinforced metal matrix composites, an explicit precise stiffness tensor is derived. In the present theory, the effect of whisker orientation on the macro property of composites is considered, but the effect of random whisker position and the complicated strain field at whisker ends are averaged. The derived formula is able to predict the stiffness modulus of composites with arbitrary whisker orientation under any loading condition. Compared with the models of micro-mechanics, the present theory is competent for modulus prediction of actual engineering composites. The verification and application of the present theory are given in a subsequent paper published in the same issue.     

基于MCMC的PLP未来强度的Bayesian预测分析

在无信息先验分布下，将Gibbs抽样与Metropolis-Hastings算法相结合的方法应用于幂律过程的未来强度的Bayesian预测。该预测方法能将时间截尾数据和失效截尾数据统一分析，并给出在未来某一时刻处强度函数的MCMC样本，利用该样本可以方便地获得关于未来某一时处刻强度函数及其函数的各种后验分析。一个经典工程数值算例说明了预测方法的可行性、合理性与有效性。     

A new approach to solar cycle forecasting

We describe a novel approach for determining the timing of the solar cycle and tracking its evolution relative to other cycles. This method also has predictive capability for forecasting the cycle “onset.” Based on current trends, we expect that Cycle 23 will be about 1 year longer than the previous two cycles.