Latitudinal distribution of solar coronal active regions

We studied the cyclic evolution of the latitudinal distribution of solar coronal active regions based on daily images from SOHO EIT for the period 1995–2017. Fully automated software was used, which included the following steps: initial preparation of images in the data series, normalization of histograms and correction of limb brightening, segmentation of images using threshold intensity values obtained from their histograms, scanning of segmented images in heliographic coordinates and obtaining profiles of latitudinal distribution of coronal active regions for each image of the data series. From the output data, we obtained a temporary change in the latitudinal distribution profiles and the migration of activity centers on the solar disk. From the period of minimum activity to the next minimum in both hemispheres, activity centers begin to migrate from high latitudes towards the equator. At the same time, the general center of activity repeatedly changes the direction of migration. The latitudinal distribution of the so-called presence factor of coronal active regions closely resembles the magnetic butterfly diagram, which proves their direct causal relationships. Variations in the presence factor of coronal active regions are correlated with cyclic variations in the sunspot daily numbers.     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.     

半个太阳活动周期内我国中纬地区上空电离层等效板厚的变化特征

本文用新乡(电离层400km对下点是:32.4°N,115.6°E)、重庆(电离层400km对下点是:27.2°N,108.7°E)接收日本同步卫星ETS-Ⅱ的信标资料,研究了我国中纬地区上空半个太阳活动周期内(1981—1985)电离层等效板厚的变化特征,得到了等效板厚日变化、季变化的二维和三维等值图。由付里叶分析和回归方法得出等效板厚日变化各谐波分量与太阳黑子数12个月滑动平均值之间存在弱的线性关系。同时指出在等效板厚日变化中,于当地时0400—0700LT存在一明显的黎明峰。并对出现这种峰的原因作了讨论。      

基于故障行为的惯导产品贮存寿命试验设计

以典型惯导产品加速度计贮存寿命评估为例,提出了一种基于故障行为模型的加速退化试验设计方法,解决了缺乏预试验数据情况下试验应力水平设计的问题。在通过对产品特性和主机理分析基础上,确定表征产品贮存寿命特征参数及试验应力,构建了考虑材料等分散性的加速度计故障行为模型,用以描述参数加速时变规律的特性。在试验应力最高水平确定的情况下,基于给定置信度和故障行为模型,以高应力水平下退化量的置信下限与低应力水平下退化量的置信上限不交叉为原则,采用基于仿真的加速退化试验设计方法,优化确定低应力和中间应力水平,从而设计给出试验剖面,并给出了加速退化试验方案优选流程,最终从备选方案集中确定加速度计试验最优方案。通过实际案例分析,验证了该方法的有效性。      

基于效用价值驱动的旅客出行动力学研究与建模

为了探究交通体系中旅客出行行为的特征与机理,以某机场离港旅客的陆侧出行数据为研究对象,对旅客出行模式进行了统计。分析发现,旅客聚集行为具有强烈的阵发性,不同出行维度旅客群体的聚集时间间隔分布具有幂律特征,且幂指数和阵发性强度呈正相关关系。同时,研究认为旅客出行换乘决策是综合时间、费用、便捷舒适度、突发情况等多因素的期望实现,是一种基于效用价值驱动的人类行为。基于此构建了效用价值驱动模式下的旅客出行行为动力学模型,可输出幂指数为参数可调的幂律分布,且仿真输出和实证数据分析结果相吻合。      

宽高比及表面粗糙度对矩形微尺度通道流动特性的影响

实验研究了不同宽高比矩形金属微尺度通道的流动特性,并与硅通道对比来探究表面粗糙度的影响。金属微尺度通道宽为0.4mm,通道宽高比分别为0.50、0.67、和1.00,相对表面粗糙度范围为0.1609%~0.2145%。硅通道宽度及高度都为0.4mm,相对表面粗糙度为0.00325%。实验工质为空气,实验的雷诺数范围是250~3000。实验结果表明:在粗糙微尺度通道会发生转捩提前,并且转捩雷诺数随着宽高比增大而减小。在层流区,微尺度矩形通道摩擦因数随着雷诺数增大而减小,在转捩区出现明显增大后再减小。表面粗糙度很小时,未发现转捩提前现象。      

基于眼动数据的网络搜索行为预测方法

预测用户的网络搜索行为对改进搜索引擎和提升用户体验十分重要.现有大多数方法是基于用户的交互数据,如查询、点击和鼠标移动等.提出一种基于眼动数据的用户网络搜索行为预测方法.通过眼动实验,采集用户在网络搜索任务时的眼睛运动数据,将这些数据转化成两种数据格式:直方图和序列.直方图数据描述用户注意力的分布情况,序列数据呈现用户的扫视路径.使用4种学习算法对用户决策或用户意图进行预测,同时研究两种数据格式的性能.结果显示,两种数据格式均适合于预测用户决策,而序列数据更适合于预测用户意图.该结果表明,利用眼动数据能够有效预测网络搜索行为.      

Self-perspiration garment for extravehicular activity improves skin cooling effects without raising humidity

Introduction

The current U.S. extravehicular activity (EVA) suit in space includes liquid cooling and ventilation garment (LCVG) to control thermal condition. Tubes knitted in LCVG for flowing water interrupt evaporation of perspiration, and astronauts feel discomfort. In the present study, we hypothesized that a self-perspiration garment would effectively lower the skin temperature without raising humidity in the garment. Thus, we developed and examined the effects of the garment.

Methods

Eight healthy subjects were studied with a cyclic ergometer of 30, 60 90 and 120 W loading for 3 min each. Skin temperature and humidity on the back were measured continuously. Subjects wore and tested three types of garments i.e., a spandex wear without any cooling device (Normal), a simulated LCVG (s-LCVG) or the spandex wear knitted a vinyl tube for flowing water, and the spandex wear with a tube, which flows water and self-perspiration with oozing water for evaporative cooling (SPEC).

Results

All measurements were reached to steady state 2–3 min after the setting. The s-LCVG decreased skin temperature 0.39±0.14 °C during 12 min of cooling. With SPEC, skin temperature did not decrease significantly until 6–9 min after starting the cooling. However, the temperature decreased rapidly and significantly after that, and finally decreased 1.59±0.32 °C. Humidity in the SPEC was significantly lower than that in s-LCVG.

Discussion

SPEC was effective for lowering skin temperature without raising humidity in the garment. The concept is expected to use as a better cooling system during EVA.     

Strong geomagnetic activity forecast by neural networks under dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field

The paper deals with the relation of the southern orientation of the north–south component _Bz$B_z$ of the interplanetary magnetic field to geomagnetic activity (GA) and subsequently a method is suggested of using the found facts to forecast potentially dangerous high GA. We have found that on a day with very high GA hourly averages of _Bz$B_z$ with a negative sign occur at least 16 times in typical cases. Since it is very difficult to estimate the orientation of _Bz$B_z$ in the immediate vicinity of the Earth one day or even a few days in advance, we have suggested using a neural-network model, which assumes the worse of the possibilities to forecast the danger of high GA – the dominant southern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field. The input quantities of the proposed model were information about X-ray flares, type II and IV radio bursts as well as information about coronal mass ejections (CME). In comparing the GA forecasts with observations, we obtain values of the Hanssen–Kuiper skill score ranging from 0.463 to 0.727, which are usual values for similar forecasts of space weather. The proposed model provides forecasts of potentially dangerous high geomagnetic activity should the interplanetary CME (ICME), the originator of geomagnetic storms, hit the Earth under the most unfavorable configuration of cosmic magnetic fields. We cannot know in advance whether the unfavorable configuration is going to occur or not; we just know that it will occur with the probability of 31%.     

A comparative sporadic-E layer study between two mid-latitude ionospheric stations

Hourly systematic measurements of the highest frequency reflected by the sporadic-E layer (foEs) recorded from January 1976 to June 2009 at the ionospheric stations of Rome (Italy, 41.8°N, 12.5°E) and Gibilmanna (Italy, 37.9°N, 14.0°E) were considered to carry out a comparative study between the sporadic E layer (Es) over Rome and Gibilmanna. Different statistical analysis were performed taking into account foEs observations near the periods of minimum and maximum solar activity. The results reveal that: (1) independently from the solar activity, Es develops concurrently over extended regions in space, instead of being a spatially limited layer which is transported horizontally by neutral winds over a larger area; especially during summer months, when an Es layer is present at Rome, there is a high probability that an Es layer is also present over Gibilmanna, and vice versa; (2) Es layer lifetimes of 1–5 h were found; in particular, Es layers with lifetimes of 5 h both over Gibilmanna and Rome are observed with highest percentages of occurrence in summer ranging between 80% and 90%, independently from the solar activity; (3) latitudinal effects on Es layer occurrence emerge mostly for low solar activity during winter, equinoctial, and summer months, when Es layers are detected more frequently over Gibilmanna rather than Rome; (4) when the presence of an Es layer over Rome and Gibilmanna is not simultaneous, Es layer appearance both over Rome and Gibilmanna confirms to be a locally confined event, because drifting phenomena from Rome to Gibilmanna or vice versa have not been emphasized.