飞机着陆进近穿越风切变的轨迹响应

大气紊流和风切变对飞行活动影响较大,尤以低空风切变危害最大,严重威胁着民航飞行的安全。鉴于飞行器对抗大气扰动的实际能力有限,正确的飞行对策是回避或改出危险的大气扰动区。本文对某训练飞机着陆进近遭遇风切变时飞机轨迹的变化进行了模拟仿真计算。结果表明,采用恒定迎角策略,即采用最大允许迎角（抖动迎角）和最大油门时,改出效果最佳。同时计算出了某训练飞机在水平风为0时,所能抵抗的最大垂直阵风强度;以及在垂直阵风为0时,所能抵抗的最大水平风强度。     

长期贮存固体火箭发动机安全性评估

为评估长期贮存后固体火箭发动机安全性的变化,对贮存时间为18年的某型固体火箭发动机进行了解剖.测试并比较了经过长期贮存后发动机药柱的力学性能和各种感度,而后进行了长期贮存后推进剂和发动机试件的枪击试验,各种试验项目中均利用贮存期为4年的推进剂方坯进行对比.结果表明:长期贮存后推进剂热安全特性变化不明显,但撞击感度和摩擦感度明显增加并且在枪弹高速冲击下破碎严重,长期贮存后发动机在模拟枪击试验中表现出爆炸倾向,使用安全性大大降低.      

Aerodynamic Modeling and Parameter Estimation from QAR Data of an Airplane Approaching a High-altitude Airport

Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder (QAR) data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane. It is also an essential content of flight accident analysis. The related techniques are developed in the present paper, including the geometric method for angle of attack and sideslip angle estimation, the extended Kalman filter associated with modified Bryson-Frazier smoother (EKF-MBF) method for aerodynamic coefficient identification, the radial basis function (RBF) neural network method for aerodynamic modeling, and the Delta method for stability/control derivative estimation. As an application example, the QAR data of a civil airplane approaching a high-altitude airport are processed and the aerodynamic coefficient and derivative estimates are obtained. The estimation results are reasonable, which shows that the developed techniques are feasible. The causes for the distribution of aerodynamic derivative estimates are analyzed. Accordingly, several measures to improve estimation accuracy are put forward.     

飞机颠簸及其飞行处置

目的研究导致飞机颠簸的天气形势和环境条件;方法通过对颠簸区中的飞行气象条件、影响颠簸的几个主要因素、颠簸对飞行的影响以及在颠簸区中飞行时飞行员应采取的一些措施做了简要介绍,分析飞机颠簸预报指数和指标;结果揭示产生飞机颠簸的气象条件;结论增强飞机气象保障能力,以保障飞行安全。     

Sensitivity Analysis for Safety Design Verification of General Aviation Reciprocating Aircraft Engine

This paper presents an application of global sensitivity analysis for system safety analysis of reciprocating aircraft engine. Compared with local sensitivity analysis results, global sensitivity analysis could provide more information on parameter interactions, which are significant in complex system safety analysis. First, a deterministic aviation reciprocating engine thermodynamics model is developed and parameters of interest are defined as random variables. Then, samples are generated by Monte Carlo method for the parameters used in engine model on the basis of definition of factor distribution. Eventually, results from engine model are generated and importance indices are calculated. Based on the analysis results, design is improved to satisfy the airworthiness requirements. The results reveal that by using global sensitivity analysis, the parameters could be ranked with respect to their importance, including first order indices and total sensitivity indices. By reducing the uncertainty of parameters and adjusting the range of inputs, safety criteria would be satisfied.     

Methods of spacecraft impulsive relative hovering and trajectory safety analysis

Based on the analytical solutions of T-H equations and its state transition matrix form,the open-loop control method of spacecraft impulsive relative hovering was studied,which is promising for practical engineering use.The true anomaly intervals of the hovering impulse were optimized by the nonlinear mathematical programming.Based on the calculation of collision probability,the method of safety analysis and risk management was proposed.The numerical simulations show that the introduced relative hovering method can be used for circular and elliptical reference orbits hovering.Furthermore,the local optimal solution can be obtained by applying the true anomaly intervals optimization method.The maximum collision probability and the minimum relative distance nearly appear at the same time.And,the smaller the relative distance is,the larger the collision probability.     

交叉航路飞行间隔安全评估研究

在交叉航路上初步研究了碰撞风险模型,从冲突区域模型、概率论模型、Event模型、Reich及其改进模型等5种碰撞风险模型的角度,分析了各个模型的使用范围及建模思想,并在此基础上分析了飞行间隔安全评估未来的研究方向：基于CNS性能的飞行间隔安全评估,防撞系统如何减少碰撞风险以及人为因素对碰撞风险的影响,为今后的研究奠定了基础。     

基于案例知识的系统安全风险模型

对基于案例知识的系统安全风险模型进行了研究。首先,建立了系统安全事件案例知识表达模型。其次,研究了系统知识表达的不确定性问题,以及安全风险决策者的决策类型对度量不确定性的需求;基于现有安全风险模型对不确定性度量能力的欠缺,提出了基于案例知识的系统安全风险概念模型,用损失可能性、损失程度和损失的不确定性来表征系统安全风险。在此基础上,研究了该安全风险模型的建模方法,并举例证明了该模型的有效性。最后,对机长飞行安全风险进行了研究,选取机长年龄、累计飞行小时以及近90天飞行小时3个指标作为风险因子,应用本文所建基于案例知识的系统安全风险模型,评估了机长飞行安全风险,评估结果合理,可为民航放飞决策提供参考。     

一种适用于进近尾流间隔缩减的机型聚类方法

目前,我国广泛使用的尾流间隔标准过于保守,导致机场跑道容量受限。以进近航空器的尾流遭遇问题为研究对象,首先研究进近尾流安全间隔缩减方法,获取缩减后的临界尾流间隔;然后基于主成分分析法（PCA）对 BADA 数据库中的航空器性能数据降维,提出一种适用于进近尾流间隔缩减的机型层次聚类方法;最后采用该方法得到新的机型分类结果并构建缩减后的尾流安全间隔标准。结果表明：本文所使用的机型层次聚类方法与国内外航空器分类方法具有较好的一致性,在长沙黄花国际机场的主流配对机型间,所获取的进近航空器尾流间隔标准与传统尾流间隔标准相比可以缩减 0.8 km 以上。     

民用飞机系统安全性分析中EWIS部件的考虑

通过对适航规章25.1709的分析,结合AC25.1701,提出了民用飞机系统安全性分析中需考虑EWIS部件的一些方面,并初步研究了具体的分析方法。