用自助加权范数法评估三参数威布尔分布可靠性最优置信区间

提出自助加权范数法,以评估三参数威布尔分布可靠性的最优置信区间.基于可靠性经验值与理论值的差异,通过6个最小加权范数准则,构建出威布尔分布的最优参数信息向量.对最优参数信息向量进行自助再抽样,获得生成参数信息向量,用于模拟参数的概率密度函数.在给定置信水平下,求解出参数的估计真值及其置信区间,并据此建立可靠性的估计真值函数及其最优置信区间函数.滚动轴承性能寿命案例、直升机部件失效案例与某试件疲劳寿命案例的研究表明:使用自助加权范数法,估计真值函数与可靠性经验值相一致,最优置信区间函数能描述试验结果的真实状态.      

电子飞控飞机的飞行品质适航验证

FAA AC25-7A中的飞行品质评定方法 (HQRM)能够对使用电子飞控系统的民用运输机进行飞行品质评估。分析了HQRM评估程序以及相关适航要求,根据某民用飞机飞控系统功能危险分析,针对单侧升降舵卡阻这一典型故障,提出了在该失效状态下的模拟器飞行品质评估试验程序,分别给出了HQRM和相应军用标准评估方法,对军民评估方法的差异性和一致性进行了分析。研究结果对采用电子飞控系统的现代飞机的飞行品质适航验证具有工程参考意义。     

Aerodynamic Modeling and Parameter Estimation from QAR Data of an Airplane Approaching a High-altitude Airport

Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder (QAR) data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane. It is also an essential content of flight accident analysis. The related techniques are developed in the present paper, including the geometric method for angle of attack and sideslip angle estimation, the extended Kalman filter associated with modified Bryson-Frazier smoother (EKF-MBF) method for aerodynamic coefficient identification, the radial basis function (RBF) neural network method for aerodynamic modeling, and the Delta method for stability/control derivative estimation. As an application example, the QAR data of a civil airplane approaching a high-altitude airport are processed and the aerodynamic coefficient and derivative estimates are obtained. The estimation results are reasonable, which shows that the developed techniques are feasible. The causes for the distribution of aerodynamic derivative estimates are analyzed. Accordingly, several measures to improve estimation accuracy are put forward.     

飞机颠簸及其飞行处置

目的研究导致飞机颠簸的天气形势和环境条件;方法通过对颠簸区中的飞行气象条件、影响颠簸的几个主要因素、颠簸对飞行的影响以及在颠簸区中飞行时飞行员应采取的一些措施做了简要介绍,分析飞机颠簸预报指数和指标;结果揭示产生飞机颠簸的气象条件;结论增强飞机气象保障能力,以保障飞行安全。     

基于气动热力模型的FADEC系统FHA方法

从适航规章对全权限数字发动机控制(full authority digital engine control,简称FADEC)系统的安全要求出发,结合功能危险分析(functional hazard assessment,简称FHA)的一般原则和FADEC系统的特点,得到了FADEC系统FHA的分析要素.根据分析要素中的工具与数据需求,将航空发动机气动热力模型用于可调放气活门(variable bleed valve,简称VBV)控制功能失效危险分析,结果表明:①该模型能够辅助确定FADEC系统功能失效的发动机影响;②FADEC系统功能危险的模型分析方法通过定量分析确定发动机影响的危险等级,为FHA提供直观的参考依据,可作为对专家经验的补充.      

Sensitivity Analysis for Safety Design Verification of General Aviation Reciprocating Aircraft Engine

This paper presents an application of global sensitivity analysis for system safety analysis of reciprocating aircraft engine. Compared with local sensitivity analysis results, global sensitivity analysis could provide more information on parameter interactions, which are significant in complex system safety analysis. First, a deterministic aviation reciprocating engine thermodynamics model is developed and parameters of interest are defined as random variables. Then, samples are generated by Monte Carlo method for the parameters used in engine model on the basis of definition of factor distribution. Eventually, results from engine model are generated and importance indices are calculated. Based on the analysis results, design is improved to satisfy the airworthiness requirements. The results reveal that by using global sensitivity analysis, the parameters could be ranked with respect to their importance, including first order indices and total sensitivity indices. By reducing the uncertainty of parameters and adjusting the range of inputs, safety criteria would be satisfied.     

Methods of spacecraft impulsive relative hovering and trajectory safety analysis

Based on the analytical solutions of T-H equations and its state transition matrix form,the open-loop control method of spacecraft impulsive relative hovering was studied,which is promising for practical engineering use.The true anomaly intervals of the hovering impulse were optimized by the nonlinear mathematical programming.Based on the calculation of collision probability,the method of safety analysis and risk management was proposed.The numerical simulations show that the introduced relative hovering method can be used for circular and elliptical reference orbits hovering.Furthermore,the local optimal solution can be obtained by applying the true anomaly intervals optimization method.The maximum collision probability and the minimum relative distance nearly appear at the same time.And,the smaller the relative distance is,the larger the collision probability.     

交叉航路飞行间隔安全评估研究

在交叉航路上初步研究了碰撞风险模型,从冲突区域模型、概率论模型、Event模型、Reich及其改进模型等5种碰撞风险模型的角度,分析了各个模型的使用范围及建模思想,并在此基础上分析了飞行间隔安全评估未来的研究方向：基于CNS性能的飞行间隔安全评估,防撞系统如何减少碰撞风险以及人为因素对碰撞风险的影响,为今后的研究奠定了基础。     

基于回归型支持向量机的空战目标威胁评估

空战目标威胁评估是协同多目标攻击中的关键问题.针对传统空战目标威胁评估方法在确定权重系数方面的不足,提出了一种新的基于回归型支持向量机的评估方法.在分析了现有的空战目标威胁评估方法中距离威胁模型存在缺陷的基础上,提出了改进的距离威胁模型.建立了基于回归型支持向量机的空战目标威胁评估模型,利用该模型对想定的空战目标进行了威胁评估.仿真结果表明,该方法具有很好的预测能力,可以快速、准确地完成空战目标威胁评估.     

基于概率数据关联的地磁匹配算法

针对轮廓匹配算法存在的虚定位问题,在轮廓匹配算法的基础上,提出了一个新的分批地磁匹配方法——基于概率数据关联滤波的地磁匹配算法。算法把满足一定条件的相关值作为滤波器的有效量测,把巡航导弹的位置作为状态变量,建立了基于概率数据关联的地磁匹配模型,利用概率数据关联滤波算法计算巡航导弹的位置坐标。仿真结果表明,该算法有效地降低了虚定位发生的概率,正确匹配率、导航效果均优于轮廓匹配算法。