经济先发地区居民收入对幸福感影响的实证研究——基于非参数、半参数及分位数回归方法

选择经济先发居民为研究对象,通过构建半参数及分位数回归模型,系统研究绝对收入、相对收入、期望收入等变量对幸福感的影响,我们发现:绝对收入对幸福感有显著的正相关关系;相对收入对高学历者影响不显著,但对低学历者影响显著;绝对收入对幸福感越低者的影响越显著;相对收入对中低幸福感群体影响显著,每周工作时间对低幸福感群体影响显著且强度大,但对高幸福感群体的影响力在降低。     

航空发动机增益调度控制的多项式平方和规划方法

针对现有的线性变参数(linear parameter varying,LPV)控制器设计方法都是关于仿射参数依赖系统而没有专门针对多项式描述的LPV系统这一现状,提出了一种基于多项式平方和(sum of squares,SOS)规划的增益调度控制设计方法,并将其用于转速大范围变化时的航空发动机高压转子转速及压比控制.根据发动机非线性模型获取不同转速下的状态空间模型,并利用多项式拟合的方法建立发动机线性变参数模型.给出能够保证无静差的增益调度控制结构,利用有界实定理和多项式平方和理论推导出能够保证闭环系统鲁棒稳定的SOS约束条件,并形成控制器求解的SOS规划问题,通过求解获得多项式描述的增益调度控制器.分别以LPV模型和发动机非线性模型为对象做阶跃仿真,结果表明:高压转子转速/发动机压比控制系统的调节时间在2s以内,稳态误差不超过0.1%.      

Remote sensing and GIS-based landslide hazard analysis and cross-validation using multivariate logistic regression model on three test areas in Malaysia

This paper presents the results of the cross-validation of a multivariate logistic regression model using remote sensing data and GIS for landslide hazard analysis on the Penang, Cameron, and Selangor areas in Malaysia. Landslide locations in the study areas were identified by interpreting aerial photographs and satellite images, supported by field surveys. SPOT 5 and Landsat TM satellite imagery were used to map landcover and vegetation index, respectively. Maps of topography, soil type, lineaments and land cover were constructed from the spatial datasets. Ten factors which influence landslide occurrence, i.e., slope, aspect, curvature, distance from drainage, lithology, distance from lineaments, soil type, landcover, rainfall precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi), were extracted from the spatial database and the logistic regression coefficient of each factor was computed. Then the landslide hazard was analysed using the multivariate logistic regression coefficients derived not only from the data for the respective area but also using the logistic regression coefficients calculated from each of the other two areas (nine hazard maps in all) as a cross-validation of the model. For verification of the model, the results of the analyses were then compared with the field-verified landslide locations. Among the three cases of the application of logistic regression coefficient in the same study area, the case of Selangor based on the Selangor logistic regression coefficients showed the highest accuracy (94%), where as Penang based on the Penang coefficients showed the lowest accuracy (86%). Similarly, among the six cases from the cross application of logistic regression coefficient in other two areas, the case of Selangor based on logistic coefficient of Cameron showed highest (90%) prediction accuracy where as the case of Penang based on the Selangor logistic regression coefficients showed the lowest accuracy (79%). Qualitatively, the cross application model yields reasonable results which can be used for preliminary landslide hazard mapping.     

基于查表的开环MPM预失真器

提出了一种基于查表的开环记忆多项式模型(MPM,Memory Polynomial Model)预失真器.从MPM预失真器系数估计和执行信号预失真处理两方面加以考虑.首先,利用预失真器和高功率放大器(HPA,High Power Amplifier)传输特性的互补性,由采集到的HPA输入、输出基带数据进行单次最小二乘估计得到MPM预失真器的系数,避免了以往递归结构的收敛性和计算量大等问题.然后,利用MPM预失真器的特点,建立了基于输入信号强度索引的一维向量表,通过查表实现MPM预失真器的幂次累加项,极大地减少了实现预失真器所需的计算量及硬件开销.仿真显示,采用提出的预失真器可以有效补偿HPA对信号的记忆非线性失真,有效带宽内获得了近20 dB的功率改善,也显著改善了系统误码性能.     

运动基航天飞行模拟器信号缩比策略

对于大幅值的输入信号,三阶多项式缩比法易产生信号畸变且参数配置复杂;而Hermite缩比函数法的触发速度较慢.提出两种改进的缩比方法:基于三阶多项式缩比法的最优参数配置法和加入线性缩比的非线性缩比法.前一种方法通过参数的优化配置最大化稳定区,以防止信号的畸变;后一种方法则利用线性缩比的特性将缩比度限制在稳定区内.仿真结果表明:线性缩比的加入可以防止三阶多项式缩比法信号的畸变;最优配置参数法应用方便且整体效果较好.为航天飞行模拟提供了更有效的缩比策略.     

Transient simulation of regression rate on thrust regulation process in hybrid rocket motor

The main goal of this paper is to study the characteristics of regression rate of solid grain during thrust regulation process. For this purpose, an unsteady numerical model of regression rate is established. Gas–solid coupling is considered between the solid grain surface and combustion gas.Dynamic mesh is used to simulate the regression process of the solid fuel surface. Based on this model, numerical simulations on a H2O2/HTPB(hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene) hybrid motor have been performed in the flow control process. The simulation results show that under the step change of the oxidizer mass flow rate condition, the regression rate cannot reach a stable value instantly because the flow field requires a short time period to adjust. The regression rate increases with the linear gain of oxidizer mass flow rate, and has a higher slope than the relative inlet function of oxidizer flow rate. A shorter regulation time can cause a higher regression rate during regulation process. The results also show that transient calculation can better simulate the instantaneous regression rate in the operation process.     

一类回归分析预测模型及其应用

提出了一类回归分析预测模型，这类模型将多项式和一些简单的数学函数相乘．得出分两步求解模型中待定参数的近似方法，简化了待定参数的求解过程。给出了这类模型的应用实例，结果表明：同一些简单函数构成的模型相比，这类模型具有较好的预测能力。     

一种新的鲁棒非线性卡尔曼滤波

Huber方法是一种基于l1/l2联合范数的估计方法,该方法可以实现估计的鲁棒性,同时尽量不损失滤波精度和效率.基于Huber估计的无味卡尔曼滤波虽提高了无味卡尔曼滤波的鲁棒性,但这种方法用统计线性回归模型来近似非线性的观测模型,损失了无味变换的精度.从Huber方法的数学意义出发,对观测信息(观测值或观测噪声)进行重新构造,然后对精确的非线性观测方程进行标准的无味卡尔曼滤波,这种新的基于Huber方法的无味卡尔曼滤波无需对非线性观测方程进行线性近似,在保持鲁棒性的前提下提高了滤波精度.通过一个具有混合高斯分布观测噪声的简明实例,验证了新算法在鲁棒性、滤波精度以及估计一致性方面的优势.     

复杂产品研制项目标准化效益评估模型

旨在量化计算标准化工作的效益,凸显标准化工作的重要作用.通过分析复杂产品研制项目标准化工作的特点,确定标准化工作权重计算方法,建立了复杂产品研制项目标准化工作项目体系及效益指标体系.深入研究复杂产品研制项目标准化效益评估模型的构建方法,编制总效益调研问卷,收集有关型号标准化工作效果数据,构建了复杂产品研制项目标准化效益评估模型.运用本方法建立了航空领域复杂产品研制项目标准化效益评估模型,并以某型飞机研制项目的真实数据验证了模型的准确度.     

基于支持向量机的航空发动机滑油监控分析

提出了一种基于支持向量机的航空发动机滑油金属含量预测方法。详细分析了支持向量机用于时间序列预测的理论基础,并给出了运用支持向量回归进行多步预测的一般公式,提出了用最终预报误差(FPE)准则优化选取嵌入维数。与传统的AR预测模型相比,支持向量机由于采用了新型的结构风险最小化准则表现出优秀的推广能力。经过数值仿真得出自回归(AR)模型仅适合于短期预测;支持向量机预测推广能力强、具有较强的鲁棒性和容错性,对较长区间预测仍具有较好的效果。最后,将其应用于某型发动机滑油的铁金属含量预测,取得了较好的效果。